The death of former Jalandhar MP Santokh Singh Chaudhary on January 14 this year, while participating in the Bharat Jodo Yatra in Phillaur, necessitated the holding of a by-election for the SC reserved Jalandhar Lok Sabha Constituency. The elections took place on May 10, and the results were announced on May 13, in which AAP won with 3,02,097 votes (34.05%), INC got 2,43,450 votes (27.44%), whereas the SAD-BSP alliance and BJP got 1,58,354 votes (17.85%) and 1,34,706 votes (15.19%), respectively. Simranjit Singh Mann’s SAD (A) got 20,354 votes. Here are the important takeaways for each party.

AAP: Since coming to power in March last year, the AAP-led Punjab Government had been in the limelight for its law and order blunders, corrupt ministers, industries in Punjab leaving the state and unfulfilled promises. It was widely believed that Punjab has lost its trust in the AAP, and the results of the Jalandhar by-election will reflect that. The AAP, however, managed to unseat the INC from Jalandhar, a seat it had held since 1999 and took the lead with a margin of close to 60,000. What were the reasons for this thumping victory?

Though AAP is currently the biggest party in Punjab, it doesn't have any hugely popular faces in the state other than the CM, Bhagwant Mann. Out of the 92 MLAs, 85 are first-time MLAs. Due to the MLAs' lack of standing and experience, the AAP Central leadership found it easier to control them and keep them on the move during the election campaign. Moreover, the Jalandhar by-election was do or die for the party following its defeat in the Sangrur by-elections last year. CM Bhagwant Mann and party supremo Arvind Kejriwal both took the lead and campaigned across the constituency.

There was much discussion surrounding the AAP's unfulfilled promises, but they were also able to deliver on a few: 300 units of free electricity and give away more than 25,000 appointment letters for government jobs. The accuracy of this number can be contested, but it cannot be totally disproved. These fulfilled promises proved to be a huge positive for the AAP.

There were also reports that AAP had resorted to many underhand measures, like pressuring Sarpanches to garner votes, and many of its MLAs outside of Jalandhar were caught acting as polling agents.

AAP also put special emphasis on weakening the opposition in the state by poaching its prominent leaders. Be it Sushil Kumar Rinku from the Congress, who later became the MP candidate, or Mohinder Bhagat from the BJP, or Jagbir Singh Brar from the SAD. The decision to give Sushil Kumar Rinku the ticket also showed that the AAP lacked a homegrown candidate despite having 92 MLAs.

Congress: INC had gone with the wife of the late Santokh Singh Chaudhary, Karamjit Kaur Chaudhary as the candidate. All the big INC Punjab leaders campaigned actively but in silos. This lack of unity cost them the 2022 assembly elections as well as this election. Amarinder Singh Warring, Partap Singh Bajwa, Navjot Singh Siddhu, Charanjit Singh Channi all campaigned for the Jalandhar by-election but other than the day of filing of nomination, these leaders were not seen together. The national leadership of the Congress did not appear in Jalandhar either, despite the fact that Arvind Kejriwal was heavily involved in the AAP's campaign and BJP had many of its prominent national leaders active in Jalandhar.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, Congress had a vote share of 38% in Jalandhar; in the 2022 Assembly Elections, they got a vote share of 33%; and this time, it dropped to 27% despite having 5/9 MLAs in the Jalandhar Lok Sabha.

SAD - BSP alliance: SAD and BSP both have been struggling in Punjab. The vote bank of the SAD has lost connection with its leadership, especially the party supremo, Sukhbir Singh Badal. Although the BSP has a strong presence in Jalandhar, over time it has shrunk to a mere shadow of what it was in the 1990s. In these elections, the hope was that the SC voter base of the BSP (40% of voters in Jalandhar Lok Sabha are from the SC community), and the Jatt Sikh voter base of the SAD would come together and vote for its candidate, Shri Sukhwinder Kumar Sukhi. But it was not the case. It could be argued that Parkash Singh Badal's passing prevented the SAD from fully focusing on its campaigning, but at the same time, it was anticipated that the SAD would gain some sympathy votes, which it appears didn't happen. SAD-BSP alliance vote share fell from 20.7% in 2022 to 17.85% in this election.

Even at its worst, SAD has a consolidated voter base with a dedicated cadre. The party has, however, lost the voters' confidence that it will take a stand for Panthic causes. BSP, on the other hand, has become a launching pad for its leaders. INC's MLA from Adampur, Sukhwinder Singh Kotli, and SAD’s veteran from Jalandhar, Pawan Kumar Tinu, are both BSP graduates. Moreover, the SAD-BSP alliance has next to no presence in urban areas, and it was apparent in this election as well.

BJP: In this election, the BJP was able to gain a vote share of 15.19%, compared to 11% in the 2022 assembly election. It was widely accepted after the farmer's protest that the BJP had no future in Punjab. In light of this, the BJP's performance can be regarded as respectable. Even in rural areas, where it had essentially no presence, the BJP was able to perform better. The BJP exceeded the 10,000-vote threshold in Nakodar, a rural constituency.

The party has always been strong in Hindu urban areas. The BJP continued its tried-and-tested strategy in urban areas by campaigning for votes in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi . A special emphasis was laid on the Union Government's sanctioned Jalandhar Smart City Project. With the support of local leaders like Manoranjan Kalia and K.D. Bhandari, the BJP came first in 2/4 urban assembly constituencies.

In this election, the BJP did everything it could in a limited amount of time to get maximum results. The son of veteran SAD leader Charanjit Singh Atwal, Inder Iqbal Singh Atwal, joined the BJP just a month before the elections and was given the ticket. He was the only candidate from the Valmiki community, whereas the other candidates belonged to the Ravidassia community. There were six Union Cabinet ministers campaigning in Jalandhar. To attract the community of UP migrants, the BJP got MPs Manoj Tiwari and Dinesh Lal Yadav, aka Nirahua, for campaigning. In the last leg of the campaign, the former SGPC President, Bibi Jagir Kaur, and the President of the Lok Insaf Party, Simarjit Singh Bains, publicly extended their support to the BJP for the by-election.

The BJP now has an opportunity to emerge as a viable contender in Punjab if it shows some patience and builds on its presence in rural areas.

SAD (A):  The appeal from the parents of the late Siddhu Moosewala to not support the AAP in the Jalandhar by-election and the Amritpal Singh controversy were expected to boost the party, but this was not the case. With only 20,354 votes, the party received a pitiful fraction of the support it received in the 2022 Sangrur by-election.

The AAP now faces a significant challenge in light of this victory. The AAP had pledged to transform the entirety of Jalandhar if they were to win this election. The people of Jalandhar will be keenly watching what Sushil Kumar Rinku accomplishes in the nine months before the 2024 elections with regards to the much-hyped but stalled Jalandhar Smart City project, the Adampur flyover issue, and the PGI level college promised in Jalandhar by Arvind Kejriwal and Bhagwant Mann. Despite being in a strong position right now, INC will need to quickly find a way to bring its leaders together if it wants to perform well in 2024. The BJP and SAD find themselves in an interesting position. The results of these elections show that if both parties had fought together, they would have finished second.

Does AAP have the resources to run a successful campaign across the entirety of Punjab like it did during this by-election? Is Arvind Kejriwal's hegemony now threatened by Bhagwant Mann's growing stature? Will Congress make amends for its errors and reach its full potential in Punjab? Will the BJP stay on its new path or revert to its old ways? Will SAD and BSP exhibit the courage required to make the drastic decisions required for the survival of their parties? In 2024, Punjab's political future will be determined by the answers to these questions.

Image source: Hindustan Times