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May 14, 2025
Vijaya Dar

The Three-Day War that Burst the Pakistani Balloon

The ceasefire announcement after three days of intense hostility was so sudden, so abrupt, that it left most of us completely bewildered. The body language of the Foreign Secretary and the Officers of the Armed Forces at the briefing indicated that even they were not fully in the picture, and perhaps as bewildered as the rest of us. Arnab, who was going ballistic on the ceasefire acceptance, suddenly calmed down and became a mouse after getting a personal call while on air. What transpired that transformed the mood from belligerence to an eerie calm? Modi and the central cabinet also did not help in clearing the air with their complete silence. There were too many false signals coming from everywhere, and we were all terribly confused. Then, all of a sudden, there were reports of ceasefire violations by Pakistan all along the border, from Kashmir to Kutch. Everybody was further confused that when the DGMO Pakistan had reached out to our DGMO and requested a cessation of military operations, why would they resume hostilities within an hour of the request? Utterly baffling, I'd say, and that's how most of us reacted. SM warriors went on a rampage, abusing Modi and the BJP, accusing them of cowardice, loss of nerve, and being completely under the thumb of Trump. The RW warriors were furious and literally tore the Government to shreds. In fact, Modi supporters were ready to lynch him. That's how fickle our public is! None of us sat down to think why we agreed to this ceasefire when we were literally at the throat of the enemy. Was it our usual Gandhigiri that prevented us from going for the kill, or was there something more? Then, by 10.30, all the Pakistani belligerence stopped, and a lot of panic that had been created in those 3 hours gradually settled down. Nagrota story went from beheading to minor injury, to complete denial. By morning, it was evident that military operations from Pakistan had ceased. The media was silent, but still there was no clarity on what had transpired. Was it China that forced Sharif to resume hostilities, and did he oblige just to satisfy Xi Jinping's ego? Perhaps we will never know. During the day, we got bits and pieces of information from defence experts on SM as they had access to more data, including photographs of the targets the Indian forces had hit inside Pakistan. Gradually, a picture is emerging that could give us an idea as to why the ceasefire request was made by the Pakistan DGMO, and why we agreed to it. I venture to put forward my hypothesis here: 1. For its dastardly, beastly, and utterly despicable massacre of Indian Hindus in Pahalgam, Modi and Bharat had decided to inflict a much larger punishment on Pakistan than was done at Balakot after the Pulwama outrage. 2. The May 7th destruction of 9 Terrorist infrastructures across Pakistan was huge and many times more damaging than Balakot. 3. If Pakistan had taken this punishment with only counter-threats as it usually does, India would not have engaged the Pakis militarily. But it retaliated with drone attacks and heavy artillery shelling, which resulted in many deaths and damage to property in the Jammu sector. India's response was swift and so destructive that within a few hours, Pakistan's airfields were reduced to rubble, making them inoperational. In fact, India achieved such aerial dominance that its army could have strolled across and raced to Islamabad in no time. A combined air, sea, and land invasion would have decimated Pakistan in a week or ten days at the most. So, the question is, why didn't we press home the advantage, and accepted the ceasefire request so readily, and allowed Trump to announce it before us? 4. There are reports that hint at the possibility of our missiles having hit the Pakistani nuclear arsenal either at Nur Khan Airport in Islamabad or at Sargodha. Some earthquakes have been felt and measured at the times when these two places were struck. 5. It seems there has been a radiation leak at one or both of these places, and the Pakistanis went into panic mode. Marco Rubio had been speaking to Munir since the 8th itself. Munir may not have told Rubio about this, but I'm sure Sharif would have blurted it out. That would have rung alarm bells in the White House, prompting Trump to demand Pakistan end hostilities immediately. Sharif would have no choice and would have asked the DGMO to go ahead and contact his Indian counterpart for this purpose. 6. Meanwhile, Trump would have been on the hotline with Modi apprising him of the situation. In any case we had pulverized the Pakis into submission and a killer punch would have put that country into the stone age. 7. I don't believe it is in our interest to have a lawless neighbour full of fundamentalist zealots running amok with lethal armament, just like what we saw in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Nor do we need to get POK back. The idea of an Akhand Bharat from Afghanistan to Myanmar is no longer a politically viable one. As a Hindu nation, we are already under threat by the burgeoning, disproportionate population growth of the Muslims in India. We don't want to add more numbers to these by merging POK with us. Nor do we need any of the neighbouring Muslim geographies to join us. The whole idea is disastrous, and we will become another Kashmir in practically a decade or two. And then we will have nowhere to hide. 8. Our objective of Operation Sindoor was to destroy Pakistan's terror infrastructure, and this time decisively. If Pakistan hadn't retaliated, we would not have destroyed their airfields. The action would have ended on May 7th itself. That hostilities went this far created a euphoric lust for more in our people. It's but natural because we have suffered too long at the hands of this hateful enemy. We are thirsty for revenge and want its total destruction. But, as I have written above, it is not in our interest to have a lawless geography in our neighbourhood. 9. Having met the objective of Operation Sindoor, Modi would have prudently accepted Trump's request for a ceasefire. But Modi would not have said yes without getting something substantial in return. He is a hard negotiator, something Trump himself has acknowledged. 10. I believe Modi must have demanded that America take full control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and facilities. That done, Pakistan becomes incapable of holding this threat over the rest of the world. Remember, Musharraf had once said that Pakistanis are mad people and they could very easily drop a nuclear bomb if pushed to the brink. Musharraf was not joking. Pakistanis are mad enough to carry out such threats. Therefore, it is necessary that their nuclear program is either destroyed or brought under America's control. It will also help Pakistan to divert precious resources towards development, education, and economic upliftment. Besides, the army will no longer be calling the shots and will gradually lose political power to a civil administration. 11. I don't believe India will actively pursue the goal of an independent Balochistan and will not get overtly involved in its secession. I don't think Balochistan has enough manpower and military strength to force the issue. If Pakistan gives the Baloch a fair deal in economic development, that movement will dissipate. The idea of breaking Pakistan into parts is flawed and not in our interest. I was against the creation if Bangladesh in 1971. And events today prove that Indira Gandhi went to war and managed to create another implacable enemy in the east. 12. Finally, why did Modi let Trump jump the gun and make the announcement while he himself maintained silence? I think that was the concession he made to let Trump get a lot of brownie points and satisfy his ego. A small price if he gets what I think he demanded. Modi doesn't have the kind of ego Trump has. He knew that this abrupt decision, without going into details, would get him a lot of abuse, and yet he was prepared to take that for the sake of Bharat. He has elections coming up, and already, many of his supporters are angry and threatening to desert the BJP. Modi knows that he is risking the electoral future of his party. But Modi never has a short-term view. He looks at the distance and plans his moves that benefit the nation first. The party comes next. When he did come on air Modi made two things clear. There would be zero tolerance for terrorism, and there would be no rethinking of the Indus Water Treaty. He went as far as to say that there would be no dialogue with Pakistan except on Terrorism and POJK. That's how exact he was. Of course, he wouldn't have spoken about the nuclear strike (if it happened), but he did mention that Pakistan's nuclear blackmail threat would no longer be tolerated. Neither did he mention Trump or his intervention. I'm sure Trump is unhappy at the moment, but Modi will bring him around. There was a last-ditch attempt by some in Pakistan, even after Modi's talk to the nation, to send some more trial drones over into Indian territory. They were swiftly neutralised. Maybe, this action was again to please China, but by now, even the Chinese would have realised that the Pakistani balloon was well and truly punctured for it to stay afloat any longer. Pakistan needs to take stock of its own situation, and any more adventurism will surely send it back to the Stone Age. In the next few weeks or months, we will get to know the reality of this short 3-day war. I hope those who are abusing Modi will realise how significant his silence today is. And I hope this realisation comes before the elections in Bihar.

May 14, 2025
Ramaharitha Pusarla

Modi Draws New Red Lines

Communication clears cobwebs. For all its good work, the current dispensation suffered from a serious setback regarding timely communication. Learning from the past, perhaps, after the launch of Operation Sindoor, the government held timely press briefings to dispel the false narratives. Factoring in political parties' vexatious demand for evidence and catering to Indians and global players, the briefings were unveiled, comprising the foreign secretary and representatives of the armed forces. This reinforced India’s credentials as a vibrant democracy- a civilian government at the helm in tandem with a robust military is committed to safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity. The PIB worked overtime to flag fake news at regular intervals. However, the news of the ‘stoppage of firing’ between India and Pakistan by President Trump caused a pang of disappointment in Indians. The news quickly bred interpretations of New Delhi buckling under American pressure for a trade deal. Amid wild speculations, Pakistan’s relentless drone attacks on civilian areas have heightened the anxieties of New Delhi losing the upper hand. Though the Indian government, within a couple of hours, declared giving armed forces free rein to retaliate, people were left in the lurch. Indeed, India rejected Trump’s claims of negotiating (helping) India and Pakistan in brokering a truce by offering trade incentives. On the contrary, India proposed retaliatory tariffs on American products to counter duties on steel and aluminium. So, the trumped-up accusations of cowering to US pressure for a trade deal are fallacious. The matrix of conflict has several layers to it; however, the foremost in terms of narrative building is the information warfare. Gauging the public mood, the government unveiled a new format of press briefing by DGMOs of the Indian forces to keep people informed about the Operation Sindoor. Hearing from the horse's mouth made a difference. This authentic information dispelled the myth and the rhetoric peddled by the leftist ecosystem and hypernationalists on social media that raised its ugly head in the aftermath of the de-escalation with Pakistan. Dissonance in the face of a national crisis would be troubling. Turning around the mood of the nation, PM Modi, in one of the most powerful speeches of his career, delivered a cogent and firm message. Eloquently articulating a defence policy framework, he laid out the Modi Doctrine. Firmly asserting India’s zero-tolerance policy, Operation Sindoor has effectively delivered on its set objectives of striking at the roots of the terror. The retaliatory strikes by Pakistan in response to Indian attacks on terrorist camps have demonstrably established the Pakistan military as the defender of terrorists. It has also busted the myth of terrorists as ‘non-state actors’ of Pakistan, as the entire state machinery was mobilised to launch retaliatory strikes on India. Since the Uri strikes of 2016, India has steadily stepped up the scale and expanse of the retributive strikes. In fact, the 2019 Pulwama strikes firmed up India’s resolve to abrogate Article 370, paving the way for complete integration of Jammu & Kashmir with the Indian state. With every terror attack, India increased the cost and caution for Pakistan. The targeted killing of Hindu pilgrims at Reasi, coinciding with PM Modi’s third term inauguration, signalled a new shift. This tested attempt unfolded in a barbarous form at Pahalgam, where Hindus were segregated and brutally killed. This incident became the tipping point of India’s threshold. Operation Sindoor, launched to deliver justice for Pahalgam victims, turned out to be suicidal for Pakistan. Pakistan targeted temples, gurdwaras, schools and civilians. In a glaring act of provocation, Pakistan also targeted Indian military bases. This elicited an aggressive response from India. IAF struck Pakistani airbases, located in the heart of Pakistan severely crippling its air logistics and air defence systems. A rattled Pakistan then turned to the world. Busting the myth of Pakistan’s nuclear shield, India’s conventional warfare superiority brought Pakistan to its knees. Compelled by the sheer dominance of the Indian military might, Pakistan pleaded for de-escalation. India obliged after Pakistan pledged to refrain from any sort of terror activities or military audacity. However, global spin doctors siding with Pakistan’s misinformation propaganda turned India’s triumph in its counterterrorism campaign into a victory for Pakistan. Which country on earth, after suffering irreparable damages to its prided air force, could declare a victory? Even Austrian air military historian Tom Cooper’s analysis vindicated Indian claims. He declared, “India’s recent air campaign against Pakistan a clear-cut victory”. Choosing to remain in the background, PM Modi demonstrated a rare political will to strike at every place from where the roots of terror emerged. Leading the Operation Sindoor from planning to execution, PM Modi set a new benchmark in India’s fight against terrorism. Alongside, he tightened counter-terrorism doctrine by declaring “any future act of terror on Indian soil will be considered as an act of war against the country”. In his address to the nation, PM Modi eloquently dismantled the false bravado of the Pakistan military and its hyped-up defence capabilities. Hailing India’s demonstrated effectiveness of indigenous defence capabilities, Modi applauded the valour, courage and bravery of Indian tri-service forces. India has set a new normal by raising the bar of retaliatory strikes. Modi pledged that “India will strike precisely and decisively at the terrorist hideouts” and rebuked the “nuclear blackmail” of Pakistan. Stating India will no longer differentiate between the government sponsoring terrorism and the masterminds of terrorism, Modi warned Pakistan of strict action if terrorism emerges from its soil. In a hard-hitting message to Pakistan, which encourages terrorism, Modi laid down new non-negotiables-“terror and talks cannot go together… terror and trade cannot go together… Water and blood cannot flow together”. Taking off the issue of Jammu &Kashmir from the table, Modi categorically stated, “if there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on terrorism; and if there are talks with Pakistan, it will be only on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK)”. Modi also highlighted the need for unity in the face of Pakistan's insidious attempts to sow disaffection and break the harmony, and elucidated that the path of peace goes through the path of power. To live in peace, India must become powerful and fulfil the dream of Viksit Bharat. He also asserted India’s right to retaliate should Pakistan continue to weaponise cross-border terrorism. In war, truth is the first casualty. With his hard-hitting speech, Modi exposed Pakistan’s terror machinery and its umbilical connection with its military to the world. With his timely national address, Modi emphatically demolished the global disinformation and silenced the unhinged, cringeworthy rhetoric of the social media warriors and influencers. PM Modi also made an unannounced visit to the Adampur airbase to express India’s gratitude to the IAF. Modi addressed the airmen with the MiG-29 fighter and S400 missile defence in the background. The images of Modi that went viral had successfully busted the fake news propaganda of Pakistan, which claimed to have destroyed the S-400 with a Chinese JF-17 hypersonic missile. Operation Sindoor has positioned India as a fearless, unyielding and assertive nation. India’s military superiority, decisive response are unsettling its adversaries and piquing the anxiety of Western policy makers and analysts. Reference https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=2128268

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