An excellent performance by BJP in Uttar Pradesh will be crucial for Mr. Modi to return to power in 2019, comfortably because of its sheer size and the scale of the BJP’s triumph in 2014 LS, and 2017 assembly elections.

BJP’s overwhelming victory in 2014 was an outcome of three factors: a strong Modi-Wave, extraordinary Hindu vote consolidation, and fragmented opposition.

A similarly commanding performance by the BJP in 2017 UP state election securing 41% votes has forced former foes SP and BSP to join forces to take on the NDA. In 2019, the SP, BSP, and RLD have significantly increased the index of opposition unity with a pre-poll pact.

The question is will BJP’s gains against a united opposition be limited in 2019?

Arithmetic and Chemistry:

BJP’s vote share of 42.6% in 2014 is the highest any party has managed after the 1984 elections. The BSP and the SP had a combined vote share of 42.1%, nearly the same as the BJP’s, but almost equally divided.

If one were to believe in arithmetic and the BJP's UP tally could come down significantly to half. But in reality, it is not a simple matter of adding the vote shares but rather depends on chemistry and how well the alliance galvanizes each party’s supporters or drives them away.

It works both ways. If the coordination works on the ground, it, in fact, adds more support than the simple addition. But if the supporters despise each other, the vote share is much lower than the sum of vote shares.

After the Babri demolition in 1992 also, SP and BSP had joined forces and defeated the BJP in the 1993 state elections. Then the BJP vote share was stable around 32-33%, and it was Congress that sustained heavy losses, dropping from 20% to 15% as voters strategically left it for the SP-BSP coalition. However, there are specific reasons why the SP and BSP may face this time a reverse effect.

The SP and BSP are parties of their sub-castes (Yadavs and Jatavs) rather than broad caste groups (OBCs and Dalits). The alliance was short-lived and fell apart in 1995, and since they are fierce rivals. Both the party cadres despise each other on the ground (from Panchayat to Assembly to Corporation) for over two decades, and it is difficult for them to follow suit. This can benefit the BJP, as frustrated voters leave the compulsive alliance. In practical terms, 10-15% of the combined Gathbandhan voters will defect reducing its vote share to below 40%.

However, the common factor is Muslim voters who would consolidate against BJP in support of the Gathbandhan. The criticality of the community can be understood from the fact that most Muslims will vote tactically for that candidate or party, who would defeat BJP. However, there is enough evidence that a small portion of Muslim vote is likely to vote for the NDA and some will be split because of the SP-BSP coming together without Congress in the alliance. The Mayawati’s brazen call for Muslims to unite and vote was out of this fear.

Congress is far weaker than it was in the 90s. Congress got a 7.5% vote share in 2014, and any significant revival in the fortunes of the Congress has always come at the cost of the other so-called secular parties.

If Congress can make even a small dent in the BJP’s upper caste support base, it would be a net loss for BJP. Priyanka Gandhi hopping across temples could be a strategy to do just that. However, competing in secularism and in appeasement politics is in its DNA that nullifies their fake attempt.

On the other hand, BJP has achieved a Hindu rainbow consolidation comprising Upper-castes, Baniyas, non-Yadav OBCs, and non-Jatav Dalits and is a hugely more popular party in UP than the early 1990s and its support base is stable.

A party can increase its vote share either by eating into the support base of other significant players or attract floating voters, who are not aligned with any particular party. An interparty transfer along with floating voter consolidation had a more significant role in BJP’s extraordinarily high vote share. BJP’s game plan to woo Dalits, Mahadalits and most backward seems to be working once more, and only a massive shift of loyalties among its core voters can cause BJP a loss.

Modi Factor

There is a surge in support for Prime Minister Modi and the momentum is clearly with NDA. Especially his position on nationalism has massive backing culminating into yet another wave that would be enough to win the election.

While Modi, in rally after rally, is talking about the work done by his Govt. and emphasizing the Pakistan narrative post-Balakot, CM Yogi Adityanath is mobilizing the RSS/BJP cadre, asserting the Hindu conscience to hold BJP's core voters.

Undoubtedly, the post-Pulwama retaliation has given a spark to the Modi’s no-nonsense Pakistan narrative, his real support base in the Hindi-heartland is because of the “Antyodaya,” the core philosophy of Jansangh, articulated by Pandit Deendayal Upadhyay.

I have traveled across UP even before Balakot.  Prime Minister Modi has managed to convince his supporters that he stands by them and it has galvanized the poor across caste-lines to overcome their insecurity. Every household has received some, or the other direct benefit - (House, Gas, Electricity, Bank Account, Ayushman card, Toilets, etc.) in terms of basic necessities of everyday life that shockingly didn't happen in last 70yrs.

Modi Govt has been more pro-poor, more socialist than the socialists and last mile delivery has been his Govt.’s forte. It is incredible what Modi has managed to do and how people had taken a position in his favor months before the election was announced. National Security certainly captures the headline, but what has actually won hearts of millions is Modi Govt’s delivery mechanism to the last man standing in the queue.

In addition to these factors, another substantial number is around 1.5 crore first-time voters in UP. Most of these young aspirational voters cut across all caste-matrix and rally behind Prime Minister Modi.

Regions and Key Constituencies:

Eastern UP

In the mega Modi roadshow in Varanasi, a rare frenzy and excitement were visible in the crowd that will provide the BJP's campaign with a booster dose for the remaining phases, especially in eastern UP.

In addition to the Modi craze, a very significant development in the eastern UP was Nishad Party joining hands with NDA, which was earlier part of SP-BSP alliance. The exit of Praveen Nishad, who had defeated BJP candidate in Gorakhpur during 2018 by-elections, will adversely impact the SP-BSP alliance, and BJP's prospects appear much stronger in eastern UP where the community is numerically (10%) significant.

Apart from Varanasi, the key constituency in Esten UP is Azamgarh where famous Bhojpuri cinema star Dinesh Lal Nirahua is pitted against Akhilesh Yadav, and the contest is getting closer and closer.

Central UP:

The central UP that was once a strong Congress bastion slowly shifted towards SP because of the significant presence and backing of the Yadavs.

Congress should win Rai Bareli, but the fight in Amethi between Congress President Rahul Gandhi and Smriti Irani is getting exciting each passing day. In every other seat in this region, Congress is only denting the SP-BSP alliance chances.

While Mulayam Singh will easily win his Mainpuri seat, Dimple Yadav in Kannauj may face a contest. Akshay Yadav, son of Ram Gopal Yadav, is a sitting MP from Firozabad who is facing his uncle Shivpal Yadav, suggesting the feuds in the Yadavs. Here the fight is between BJP’s Dr. Chandra Sen Jadon and Shivpal Yadav.

SP's sitting MP from Badaun, Dharmendra Yadav is also witnessing a triangular contest with Congress's Salim Shervani and BJP’s Sangamitra Maurya, daughter of Swami Prasad Maurya.

Rampur is also witnessing a pitched battle between actor-politician Jaya Prada who had won the seat twice on an SP ticket against motormouth Azam Khan.

Western UP

The “Modi wave” faces its real test in western UP, which has been BJP’s bellwether the previous elections and continues the same trend in this election too. While a Dalit Muslim-Yadav-Jat consolidation should mathematically end BJP’s dream run, there are some compelling reasons to the contrary.

The Yadav’s presence in this region is in small numbers and BJP continues to hold sway among Jats and non-Jatav Dalits in most parts of western UP. The rallying of these votes behind the BJP riding on a strong Modi-wave could well spring another surprise in the region.

Muzaffarnagar is a seat to watch in this region where BJP may fall short of Ajit Singh.

Few other seats in UP where there could be a close contest are Sitapur, Kheri, Kaushambhi, Bahraich, and Basti.

Voter Turnout:

The total voter turnout in UP is moderate as in 2014. There no outliers or big signs, based on historical tendencies, in terms of voting percentage, to show any indication of a negative voting mood. The western UP has also witnessed a moderate voting (1-2% more than 2014) turnout, where there were chances of reverse polarization taking place. In fact, in the initial phases, voters voted overwhelmingly for BJP including the Dalits who are traditional Mayawati voters.

The BJP led NDA is comfortably way ahead of Gathbandhan in both vote share as well as momentum and should easily cross the tally of 60 out of 80 seats. If, and only if, Congress can revive its vote share beyond 8-9 %, NDA can well repeat its 2014 performance.

You can read Part 1 of this series on Bihar here  part 2 on MP, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand here part 3 here and Part 4 on  Rajasthan and Maharashtra here.