Part 1: Understanding Bihar Arithmetic.

Like it or not, caste lives in Bihar and UP, and it continues to underpin electoral behavior, except for ‘wave’ elections as in 1977, 1984 or 2014. And, elections bring out divisions in their entire splendor. It is another matter that leaders over the years have given caste combinations an overarching non-caste theme.

Biharis are very sharp as far as electoral politics is concerned; that their priorities get misplaced is just another concern. For the Bihari voters, it’s more about political space and pride than personal gains.

What explains NDA’s extraordinary failure in the 2015 assembly election just a year after its landslide victory in 2014?

The arithmetic of caste demography. Whatever you believe, caste compositions bring out the mathematician in even illiterate voters.

The Gathbandhan Strength:

It was evident that the sheer logic of numbers and caste loyalties – Lalu Yadav’s RJD led UPA, even when he was down and out in 2014, commanded 29% of vote share, and made Nitish opt for a Grand Alliance in 2015.

Lalu Yadav’s “MY” (17% Muslim + 14% Yadav) combination that translates to 31% votes is intact. However, some of the Yadav voters may even decide to drift to the BJP with its commitment to power, as they did in 2014. In 2010 also, some Yadavs gravitated to BJP reducing RJD to a paltry 22 seats. It would slightly weaken the prospects of the Lalu-led Gathbandhan (UPA alliance). But most of the Yadavs will vote for the UPA as they still see Lalu as their messiah.

Muslims are primarily concentrated in 10 constituencies and will vote solidly against the BJP-led NDA alliance except for the Pasmanda Muslims who support Nitish Kumar.

It is also interesting to note that in every public meeting Tejaswi Yadav is pitching the “Sharab-Bandi” (liquor ban) and its impact on the lower section. That the liquor bottles are available in abundance but poor people are paying five times more money to buy it. Believe me or not, it is getting much traction, but at the same time, village women are getting little wary.

The NDA Strength:

The BJP has a robust and loyal support base among the upper castes (17%), Banias (7%) and urban voters, while the JD(U) has successfully cultivated an alliance of the Mahadalits (10%), the extremely backward castes (EBC) and non-Yadav other backward classes (OBCs). The Kurmis (4%) and Koeris (5%) are expected to stick with the NDA alliance, except some Koeris (Kushwahas) who would go along with the UPA alliance, where Upendra Kushwaha’s RSLP is contesting.

The BJP’s strategy to woo Dalits, Mahadalits and EBCs did work in 2014 general elections. Interesting to note that even at the height of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement such a large number of Dalits and EBCs never voted for BJP anywhere in the heartland as they backed Narendra Modi in 2014. The NDA’s success will again depend on how intelligently it plays up the backward caste and the humble origins of Mr. Modi and at the same time manages to hold on to the upper caste votes.

The Tactical Alliances:

Nitish Kumar with BJP flagged good governance and also crafted a highly successful social axis and virtually reduced the support base of Lalu Prasad Yadav. The NDA has a very tactical alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP that brings a large number of loyal small sub-castes from OBCs and Dalits (6%) under its umbrella.

The UPA alliance of RJD and Congress helps to consolidate the Muslim-Yadav combination. The Congress brings nothing much to the coalition except old loyalty and pins hopes on a section of upper caste and Mahadalits, apart from consolidating the Muslim votes.

In addition to that, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) and Vikasshil Insan Party (VIP) bring a good amount of Mahadalit, OBC and EBC votes to the kitty.

Mahadalit votes will be crucial in this election, and Jitan Ram Manjhi is expected to take away some of the Mahadalit votes from NDA. Koeris back Upendra Kushwaha. Mukesh Sahani has also consolidated a fair amount of the EBC (Mallah, Nishad, and Nonia), and cannot be ignored by any political party and hence he was accommodated by the UPA alliance.

But the precise impact of Upendra Kushwaha, Jitan Ram Manjhi, and Mukesh Sahani might be unclear today. It is fair to assume that these are not very tall leaders and a merger would not ensure that the vote-share would be fully transferable as these castes have voted in good numbers for NDA in 2010 (with Nitish) as well as in 2014 (without Nitish).

Ticket Distribution:

The most crucial factor in a caste centric election battle is ticket distribution.

To have 'power' in Bihar is even more important to have 'your man' in the administration. If the director-general of police, superintendent of police (SP) or the chief secretary is from your caste, it matters a lot for the community. 

The importance of the caste matrix can be seen in both the UPA as well as NDA in ticket distribution. While BJP has given preference to upper cast, JD(U) has wholeheartedly picked Dalits and EBC.

Initially, when the ticket distribution was announced, there was some resentment among upper caste, especially the most loyal BJP supporters, the Bhumihars (4.7%) and it was pretty obvious.

The Bhumihars in Bihar are the second most powerful (both in terms of money and muscle) community after Yadavs despite being a one-third of their number. The reason for their resentment was not that they got only three seats (one each from BJP, JD (U), and LJP) to contest but the fact that the Rajputs (5.3%) and Yadavs are given 7 and 5 tickets respectively.

Giriraj Singh hails from Bhumihar community, and he may have a high hit rate in delivering offensive remarks, but that hasn’t impeded his political growth. There are still some restlessness in different pockets, but if the NDA manages to pacify their default supporters, it will gradually fade away as Mr. Modi’s grip on this section of voters is unchallenged.

The Deciders:

However, it is the Extremely Backward Community (EBC) that comprise about 20% of the votes in Bihar, are the wild card. If the EBC, which has voted handsomely for NDA, can be wooed like last time, NDA will have penetrated deep into Bihar.

EBCs do not have a clear leader and have traditionally voted for the NDA. They voted Nitish-led NDA in 2005 and 2010, but more than 50% of them voted for Narendra Modi in the 2014 polls, partly due to Modi’s underrated ‘backward class’ credentials.

It is important to note that the Nitish Kumar government had also constituted separate commissions to improve a lot of these left-out castes not enjoying the benefits of reservation. The inclusion of EBCs — Nishad, Mallah, and Nonia — in SC/ST category is another masterstroke that will help Nitish Kumar “win over” this section for NDA.

This should easily seal the outcome of the Battle for Bihar.

The Modi Factor:

The ground assessment of Bihar clearly indicates that the Modi wave in Bihar has not faded even after 2015 debacle and his popularity is still unchallenged. Post Pulwama, the response of the Modi government has fueled the sentiments, and Mr. Modi’s popularity at present is at an all-time high.

With the absence of "Mahangayi aur Bhrashtachar" (price rise and corruption), and acceptance of Mr. Modi as both the leader and the deliverer of a positive change spans across the state, especially among the youth (forward or backward, urban or rural). Bihar has roughly 9 lakh first-time voters, and these young voters could potentially cut across the caste lines and may decide the fortunes of the NDA.

Conclusion:

At this point, the arithmetic is strongly in favor of NDA alliance and if my understanding is right, riding on Modi-Wave 2, out of 40 seats in Bihar, NDA should get nearly four fifth or more seats.