Before talking about poll prospects of Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana, it is essential to discuss the most talked about possible poll alliance, the pact between AAP and Congress.

On one side, AAP claims that the alliance between the two parties is not possible as Congress party had demanded 3 seats in Delhi, rejecting any alliance in Punjab where AAP has four MPs and 20 MLAs.

On the other side, Congress has blamed the AAP saying that Arvind Kejriwal has been opportunistic and was seeking an alliance with the Congress not only in Delhi but also in Punjab, Goa, and Haryana demanding three seats from Congress in Punjab and one in Goa, in place of a 4-3 seat-sharing pact in Delhi. AAP had offered a 5-2 split to the Congress in case the deal did not extend to other states.

AAP also asked to make Dushyant Chautala’s JJP part of the alliance in Haryana seeking 3 seats for JJP and 2 for AAP, whereas, Congress was willing to offer one seat each to AAP and JJP.

As of now, it seems that this pre-poll alliance is not happening. Meanwhile the failed dynast of the Congress and the theatrical chief minister of Delhi have started a twitter fight of their own on this alliance. Let us see how long this lasts.

Punjab (13)

In 2014 BJP-SAD combine won 6 of the 13 seats riding on the Modi-wave while AAP made its debut by winning 4 seats and Congress had won just 3.

In the BJP-SAD alliance, SAD will field candidates in 10 seats and the BJP, the remaining three. AAP that was routed in the assembly elections will possibly contest with the SAD (Taksali) a breakaway faction of the SAD as partners.

The factors which are going to dominate the poll in the state include employment, drug abuse and farmers' issue like farm loan waiver by the Congress and also few non-fulfillment of poll promises.

In the backdrop of the Kartarpur Corridor, the battle-line is being drawn for an intense contest in Gurdaspur. The Congress has identified state party head Sunil Jakhar for the seat while the BJP is keen to field Bollywood star Akshaye Khanna, son of late Vinod Khanna.

BJP is looking for a prominent Sikh face for Amritsar seat that it had lost to Captain Amarinder Singh in 2014. The party is in talks with AAP defector, MP from Fatehgarh Sahib, Harinder Singh Khalsa, who has joined BJP. Earlier, Amritsar was consecutively represented for two terms by Navjot Singh Sidhu who later defected to Congress but has been denied the ticket.

In Khadoor Sahib Constituency that spreads till international border, SAD is keen to revive its grip on Panthic vote bank that has substantially favored the party in past but has definitely weaned away in last assembly polls.

While the BJP is keen on steering the narrative on Balakot-Airstrikes post-Pulwama terror attack, Congress is poised to capitalize on its thrilling Assembly election win and consolidate its position in Punjab.

Prediction: Congress 9, Akali Dal 3, BJP 1.

Haryana (10)

Haryana which is an agrarian state but over the years it has become more dependent on the industry and services sectors, BJP has the upper hand in the state, and many top leaders from the Congress have switched sides to join BJP.

Here Congress seems to be on the back foot which was also evident with the electoral loss suffered by the party’s national spokesperson Randeep Singh Surjewala in Jind by a vast margin.

INLD is seeking a pact with the BJP which would like to wait and watch as AAP and JJP alliance is also on the cards. Whether BJP will join hands with INLD, is not yet clear.

The infighting within INLD and in the Chautala family will divide the Jat votes, and the formation of JJP further dents the INLD support base. Arvind Kejriwal has expressed its willingness to support the JJP. This tie-up makes the fight for Haryana only a little more, but without Congress in an alliance, it won't be able to spoil the party for the BJP, at least in the forthcoming election.

BJP is sweeping Haryana. BJP 9-10, Congress 0-1.

Delhi (7)

Voters in Delhi are set to give a thumbs up to the ruling BJP at the Centre.

Before the Balakot air strikes the vote share of AAP and Congress individually was way below BJP's estimated vote share, which is expected to fall further and consolidate behind Modi Govt. 

Delhi BJP has not yet announced its candidates for the Lok Sabha elections. It is understood that the party is waiting for Congress and AAP to finalize their alliance and candidates.

If AAP and Congress join hands in the Capital, then the battle for the BJP will be a bit tough than the last Lok Sabha elections. However, the alliance despite increasing its vote share arithmetically, would not make much difference as BJP is projected to get around 50%  plus votes in the general elections.

In case of a triangular contest, the BJP's path is easy. Keeping this electoral math in mind, Delhi BJP is working on Mission 51%. 

Prediction: With AAP-Congress Alliance - BJP - 6, AAP - 1; Without Alliance - BJP -7.

Uttarakhand (5)

All the 5 seats of Uttarakhand went to polls in the first phase on April 11, and a voter turnout of 61.50 percent, less than half percent lower than voter turnout in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls was recorded. Based on historical tendencies of voting %, no signs to show any indication of an anti-Government mood.

BJP has fielded its incumbent candidates from Tehri Garhwal, Almora, and Hardwar from the same seats.

Veteran BJP leader and ex-CM BC Khanduri (84 Yrs) is not contesting the elections owing to health reasons. It is fascinating to note that his son Manish Khanduri is contesting on a Congress ticket from Garhwal. This seat can witness a close contest.

Another veteran BJP leader, the incumbent from Nainital, Bhagat Singh Koshyari (76 yrs) has also decided to stay out of the contest to give young leaders a chance. The media is excited about the Nainital where former chief minister Harish Rawat is battling against state BJP president Ajay Bhatt. However, last time the vote share gap on this constituency was more than 25%, and in no way, it is expected to have a close contest.

Currently, all five parliamentary seats are held by the BJP, and as per the reports from the ground, the status quo will be maintained.

Prediction: BJP -5, Congress - 0.

Himachal (4)

The polling in the hilly Himachal Pradesh will be held in the seventh and last phase on May 19.

The confident BJP has drawn up an elaborate strategy to reach out every household in the run-up to the 2019 LS elections. Eyeing once again a victory in all the four parliamentary constituencies in the state, the party is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and focusing its campaign entirely on publicizing the achievements of the Modi-led central government as well as the state government.

The BJP has fielded two sitting MPs Ramswaroop Sharma and Anurag Thakur from Mandi and Hamirpur and dropping two sitting MPs, Shanta Kumar in Kangra (replaced by state minister Kishan Kapoor) and Virender Kashyap in Shimla (by Suresh Kashyap).

Congress Party's in-charge for Himachal Pradesh Rajni Patil and co-in charge Gurkirat Kotli are yet to finalize all the candidates for the party and the suspense over Congress candidate from Hamirpur seat has however not lifted. 

Congress is hoping to reverse its abysmal non-performance of 2014, but there are no signs of it.

Prediction: BJP -4, Congress - 0.

Chandigarh (1)

Located in the foothills of the Shivalik hill ranges, Chandigarh has just one Lok Sabha constituency that covers the entire Union Territory. The Aam Aadmi Party has picked former civil aviation minister Harmohan Dhawan as its candidate in place of Gul Panaag. Dhawan is a former BJP member and was a serious contender for the 2014 ticket, but BJP chose actor-politician Kirron Kher instead.

Congress candidate Pawan Kumar Bansal held the constituency for 15 years till 2014 and has lost grip on the electorate since then. There is no fight on this seat. Kirron Kher is winning this seat comfortably.

You can read Part 1 of this series on Bihar here and part 2 on MP, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand here.