- Mar 25, 2026
- Viren S Doshi
Featured Articles
The War in West Asia: India is in the Eye of the Storm
Overview It may seem an exaggeration to state that India is in the eye of the storm that is raging in the Middle East, but a little scratching would make it amply clear. Let us recollect the chronological order of major events that have happened since September 2023. The Geopolitical Sabotage of the India - Middle East - Europe Economic Corridor How the October 7, 2023, Hamas Attack on Israel Served as a Proxy Strike by the Ayatollah Regime – Frontline of CCP Occupied China – to Stall India’s Strategic Bypass of the Strait of Hormuz to Damage Allied Economies… The present war in the Middle East / West Asia has a direct and deep connection with India. On September 9, 2023 – just one month before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 – leaders from India, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy and the European Union signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding at the G20 Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi to launch the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). This ambitious multimodal project – encompassing sea-rail links, electricity grids, green hydrogen pipelines and digital connectivity – was designed to slash transit times between India and Europe by up to 40 per cent and logistics costs by around 30 per cent compared to the traditional Gulf to Suez Canal route. For India, which conducts over 12 per cent of its merchandise trade with the European Union (valued at approximately €124 billion in 2023), IMEC promised to unlock 5-8 per cent higher export valuations, potentially adding $21.85 billion annually in Indian exports while generating thousands of jobs and fostering regional integration. Critically, IMEC’s northern corridor explicitly relied on a Saudi Arabia-Israel rail link through Jordan, building on the momentum of the 2020 Abraham Accords and advanced Saudi-Israeli normalisation talks that were nearing a breakthrough in September 2023. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had publicly stated days earlier that normalisation with Israel was “getting closer every day.” The corridor’s underlying intention – to create an efficient, secure alternative trade artery – directly threatened to diminish reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which approximately 20-21 million barrels of oil per day flowed in 2023-2025, accounting for about 20-25 percent of global seaborne oil trade and roughly 20 percent of total world petroleum liquids consumption. For India, which imports nearly 88 per cent of its crude oil (consuming around 5.5 million barrels per day) and sources over half from the Middle East, roughly 40-45 per cent of those imports historically transited the Strait of Hormuz prior to recent diversification efforts. Had the Hamas attack not occurred, IMEC would likely have accelerated Saudi-Israeli economic integration, drawn in further Gulf investment, and positioned India as a central node in a resilient east-west trade network independent of Chinese Communist-dominated routes. Instead, the October 7 assault – which killed over 1,200 Israelis and took 251 hostages – triggered the ongoing war, derailed normalisation, stalled IMEC implementation, and unleashed cascading disruptions through CCP-supported Ayatollah-backed proxies in the “Axis of Resistance.” The Ayatollah regime in Iran, acting as the frontline proxy of CCP-occupied China, provided the strategic depth: weapons, funding (estimated at hundreds of millions annually pre-2023), and operational coordination to Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The Strategic Calculus: Why IMEC Threatened CCP-Occupied China’s Dominance CCP-occupied China has poured billions into its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to lock global trade into Beijing-centric infrastructure. IMEC was explicitly framed by Free World nations as a counterweight – a “cleaner, shorter, faster” alternative that would reduce Europe’s and India’s exposure to BRI debt traps and chokepoints. By integrating Saudi Arabia and Israel economically, IMEC would have normalised relations, stabilised the Gulf, and created a rail-sea hybrid route bypassing much of the Hormuz-Suez-Red Sea vulnerability. Pre-October 2023 projections estimated IMEC could handle 1.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of container traffic annually initially, scaling to 3-6 million TEUs with upgrades, delivering $2.7-5.4 billion in yearly savings on Asia-Europe trade alone. The Ayatollah regime, heavily dependent on the CCP-occupied China (which buys roughly 90 per cent of Iran’s 1.6 million barrels per day of oil exports, generating over $50 billion annually in sanctions-evading revenue), served as the perfect disruptor. Tehran’s proxies ensured the war’s spillover: Houthi attacks in the Red Sea from late 2023 onward forced shipping companies to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, spiking container freight rates 2.5-5 times higher than pre-crisis levels and insurance premiums nearly tenfold. This added roughly $1 million per round-trip voyage in fuel and delays, inflating costs for Indian exporters and importers while boosting oil price volatility. Global crude prices rose 5-10 percent in the immediate aftermath, with sustained risk premiums exacerbating India’s import bill. Quantifiable Damage to India and Allied Economies The war’s economic toll on India has been substantial. With oil comprising a major share of the import basket, even modest price spikes (as seen post-October 2023) widened the current account deficit and fuelled inflation. Red Sea disruptions – responsible for 12 per cent of global seaborne trade and 10 per cent of seaborne crude – directly hit Indian supply chains to Europe and beyond. Indian shippers faced elevated insurance and freight costs; exports to Israel (via Eilat port on the Red Sea) and broader European markets slowed. While IMEC itself remains in early planning, the conflict paused momentum, including bilateral agreements and feasibility studies that were advancing rapidly pre-attack. Broader allied losses include delayed EU-India trade growth (already expanding at double-digit rates in key sectors) and forgone Gulf-Israeli synergies. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 diversification and Israel’s tech-export ambitions were sidelined. In contrast, the CCP-occupied China reaped clear benefits: sustained Hormuz dependency preserved its leverage over Gulf energy flows (China receives 37.7 percent of Strait traffic as the top destination), while BRI projects faced no rival corridor. Iranian oil revenues continued flowing to Beijing, funding further proxy destabilisation. The Ayatollah Regime as the CCP Occupied China’s Forward Operating Base The Ayatollah regime’s role is not incidental. Through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Tehran has funnelled advanced weaponry, training, and intelligence to Hamas (the October 7 perpetrators), Hezbollah, and the Houthis – the very actors who later targeted Red Sea shipping. CCP-occupied China enables this axis via dual-use technology transfers, financial networks for sanctions evasion, and diplomatic cover. Joint naval drills, drone component supplies, and oil-for-arms pipelines underscore the partnership. By igniting the war precisely when IMEC was poised to integrate Saudi Arabia and Israel, the attack achieved a classic proxy objective: economic warfare without direct fingerprints. In hindsight, the timing was no coincidence. The Hamas assault halted Saudi-Israeli normalisation “at the cusp,” as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described it weeks earlier. Without the war, IMEC’s rail links through Saudi territory and Israeli ports would have been under construction, diversifying energy and trade routes away from Hormuz vulnerabilities and Chinese Communist influence. Instead, India and its partners face higher costs, delayed connectivity, and renewed strategic dependence on volatile maritime chokepoints. The present Middle East war is thus not merely a regional conflict; it is a calculated strike against India’s rise as a global economic power and the broader free-world effort to build resilient infrastructure. The true beneficiary – CCP occupied China, operating through its Ayatollah frontline – has succeeded in stalling a corridor that would have bypassed its strategic strangleholds, damaged Indian and allied economies, and reshaped global trade for the better. Conclusion It is time to convert this tragedy into a great opportunity. What is left with the 47-year-old, well-entrenched Ayatollah Regime is now only missiles, drones and probably mines. Have you heard of any other weapons used by this terrorist regime just after two weeks of this war? Its armed forces and the rest of its systems have been completely decimated in less than two weeks. Now, its missile arsenals and missile factories are pounded each moment. It has been reduced from a big military to just an “IRGC” outfit, a terrorist organisation. The only ransom that it has is the Strait of Hormuz. Reviving IMEC with renewed urgency remains essential to counter this sabotage and secure India’s and the Free World's economic future.- Mar 24, 2026
- Ramaharitha Pusarla
