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Feb 13, 2026
Digital Nomad

The Unbeatable Pole: Why the 2026 Election is the DMK’s to Lose

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) occupies the central position in the current political landscape of Tamil Nadu, acting as the gravitational anchor of the Secular Progressive Alliance. This coalition remains a formidable apparatus for power preservation, having successfully integrated a diverse spectrum of ideological partners ranging from the Congress to the Left and Dalit parties. While the external observer might view this as a mere marriage of convenience, the ground reality reveals a meticulously engineered structure that benefits from both historical legacy and modern administrative reach. The party has transitioned from its role as an agitator to a quintessential establishment force, defining the contours of state discourse through its so-called Dravidian Model of governance. Understanding this pole is essential for any non-Tamil observer as it provides the baseline against which all other political movements and disruptions in the state are measured. The secondary pillar of the Dravidian model rests on a triadic expansion of social security, industrial scale, and logistical infrastructure. The flagship Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai represents the most significant shift in welfare philosophy by providing a monthly entitlement of one thousand rupees to over one crore women, effectively institutionalising a basic income for female heads of households. This is complemented by the Pudhumai Penn scheme, which incentivises higher education for girl students from government schools and the Vidiyal Payanam free bus travel initiative, which has radically altered female workforce participation. These interventions are designed to create a resilient social floor that sustains political loyalty through direct and tangible benefits. On the ground, these are not perceived as mere doles but as essential corrective measures for household economic stability. Industrial momentum is anchored by high-technology manufacturing hubs that signal a departure from traditional low-value assembly. The recent inauguration of the nine thousand crore Tata Motors Jaguar Land Rover plant in Ranipet marks the first instance of premium luxury vehicles being fully manufactured in India rather than assembled from kits. This is bolstered by the Rs 16,000 crore commitment from Vietnamese electric vehicle giant VinFast in Thoothukudi and the massive solar cell manufacturing facility by TP Solar in Tirunelveli. These projects are strategically distributed across the state to prevent lopsided development in the Chennai belt and to leverage regional talent pools. Such a scale of industrialisation reflects a clinical intent to capture the global supply chain shifts in the automotive and green energy sectors. The physical landscape of the state is being redrawn by three massive infrastructure projects that would resolve the bottlenecks of rapid urbanisation. The expansion of the Chennai Metro Phase-2, involving a revised investment of over Rs 61,000 crore, is the most ambitious rapid transit project in the country, intends to integrate the expanding city peripheries. Simultaneously, the development of the Parandur greenfield airport over 5000 acres is positioned as a critical hub for future cargo and passenger capacity exceeding 60 million people annually. The Kilambakkam bus terminus and its associated connectivity projects serve as the primary logistical conduit for the southern districts, relieving the saturated city core. These projects provide the skeletal strength required to support the state's aspirations of becoming a trillion-dollar economy by the end of the decade. A striking paradox of the current administration is the calibrated balance between aggressive anti-BJP rhetoric and pragmatic administrative collaboration with the central government. While the political stage is frequently dominated by resolutions against linguistic imposition and the perceived misuse of central agencies, the functional machinery often works in lockstep with New Delhi to secure vital infrastructure. The recent reclassification of Chennai Metro Phase-2 as a central sector project is a prime example, where the state secured 65% central funding despite ongoing public disputes over federal autonomy. This duality suggests a sophisticated strategy of preserving ideological purity for the electorate while maintaining the fiscal and developmental conduits necessary for state stability. On the ground, this is viewed as a necessary realism that prevents political friction from stalling the state's progress. The proposed greenfield airport at Parandur, however, remains a contentious and unfulfilled ambition. While it is framed as a critical hub for future cargo and passenger capacity, the project has faced sustained resistance from local villagers, particularly in Ekanapuram, over the acquisition of agricultural land. The timeline for completion has already been deferred to 2030, and the government has recently pivoted towards a more cautious approach, avoiding coercive land acquisition ahead of the upcoming assembly elections. To manage the optics, the administration has introduced a relief package and built model houses to demonstrate resettlement benefits, yet the project remains in a state of delicate suspension. It serves as a reminder that even the most ambitious establishment projects can be slowed by the grit of local agrarian politics. Alternative industrial initiatives are providing a more immediate sense of momentum, particularly through the establishment of specialised manufacturing clusters. The Pradhan Mantri Mega Integrated Textile Region and Apparel Park, known as PM MITRA, is being developed with an outlay of Rs 1683 crore to consolidate the state’s position in the global textile value chain. By diversifying away from singular mega projects into these distributed industrial parks, the administration maintains a steady narrative of progress that is less vulnerable to the localised resistance seen in Parandur. The primary strength of the ruling party lies in its assured cadre base, and a consistently loyal minority vote bank that views the alliance as a bulwark against so-called fascist and communal forces. The party machinery is arguably the most disciplined in India, with a presence in every street and hamlet, ensuring that government schemes are translated into political capital at the booth level. In the 2024 parliamentary elections, the alliance demonstrated its lethality by sweeping 39 seats, proving that its arithmetic remains largely invincible when the opposition is fragmented. This electoral dominance is underpinned by a narrative of protecting state autonomy, which secures a significant portion of the electorate that remains wary of national parties. Being in power provides the added advantage of institutional leverage, allowing the party to set the agenda and control the distribution of resources across the state. Despite these structural advantages, a visible weakness has emerged in the form of perceptions of entrenched corruption and a deteriorating law and order situation. While official statistics suggest a marginal decline in certain crime categories, high-profile incidents and a surge in drug-related offences have created a palpable sense of unease among the middle class. The opposition has successfully capitalised on these narratives, framing the administration as soft on internal discipline and prone to local-level high-handedness by party functionaries. Corruption allegations in large-scale infrastructure projects and sand-mining remain a persistent thorn in the side of the government, providing ammunition for critics. For the common citizen, these issues often outweigh macroeconomic successes, as they directly impact the daily experience of safety and justice in the public sphere. Opportunities for a second consecutive term are bolstered by the fact that anti-incumbency sentiment is currently being divided across multiple opposition fronts. The entry of new players like the Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) and the persistent presence of the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) ensure that the disgruntled vote is not consolidating behind a single challenger. Furthermore, the prevailing anti-BJP sentiment in the state continues to act as a glue for the Secular Progressive Alliance, keeping smaller partners from defecting to the rival camp. This fragmentation of the opposition essentially lowers the victory threshold for the ruling party, allowing it to win comfortably even with a slightly reduced vote share. As long as the opposition remains a multi-cornered contest, the establishment pole remains the primary beneficiary of the fractured electoral mathematics. A significant threat looms in the unpredictable and largely untested voting patterns of the Gen Z demography, which may not share the same historical loyalty to the Dravidian movement. This younger cohort is increasingly influenced by digital narratives and individual charisma rather than traditional cadre discipline or legacy ideologies. Simultaneously, there is a growing sense of cadre disillusionment at the entrenched dynastic domination that spans the entire party hierarchy from the state cabinet down to district secretaries. When local leadership becomes a hereditary office, it stifles the aspirations of grassroots workers who have spent decades in the party service. If this disillusionment leads to apathy at the booth level, the formidable party machinery could see a sudden and unexpected decline in its operational efficiency during a close contest. Udhayanidhi Stalin has been elevated to the position of Deputy Chief Minister, marking the formalisation of the third generation of the party leadership. His profile has evolved from that of a film personality to a serious political strategist who has been tasked with modernising the party's youth wing and overseeing special programme implementation. While his presence ensures a smooth succession and provides a youthful face to the party, it also serves as the primary lightning rod for accusations of dynastic politics. His role is critical in bridging the gap between the old guard and the younger voters, but his ideological assertions often trigger national controversies that the party must then navigate. For the DMK, he represents both the continuity of the family legacy and the potential risk of alienating those who seek a more meritocratic political structure. The real X factor in this political equation remains the personal popularity of M.K. Stalin, whose image has been carefully cultivated as a steady and fatherly statesman. His appeal in Tamil Nadu mirrors the kind of singular leadership cult observed with Narendra Modi in Northern and Western India, where the leader is often perceived as being above the failures of his subordinates. Despite the controversies surrounding his ministers or the party cadre, Stalin himself maintains a high approval rating driven by his perceived sincerity and accessibility. He has successfully positioned himself as the ultimate protector of Tamil interests on the national stage, a persona that resonates even with those who might be critical of the DMK as a party. This personal capital is the insurance policy that the alliance relies upon to weather local-level anti-incumbency and administrative fatigue. The strategic announcement of a one-time credit of Rs 5000 on 13th Feb to all women just prior to the notification of poll dates serves as a definitive masterstroke in electoral engineering. This move mirrors the high-impact direct benefit transfer models successfully employed in Northern and Western India, demonstrating a calculated adoption of populist mechanics to secure immediate voter sentiment. By bypassing traditional administrative delays and placing liquidity directly into the hands of the female electorate, the leadership has effectively neutralised building anti-incumbency in one swift stroke. Such tactical precision underscores the Chief Minister's command over the political narrative and his ability to leverage the state exchequer for strategic consolidation. This final intervention ensures that the establishment enters the campaign season with an overwhelming momentum that the fractured opposition will find increasingly difficult to disrupt. To summarise, the 2026 election appears less an open contest and more a choreographed validation of the current power structure. The arithmetic of the Secular Progressive Alliance, bolstered by this last-minute chemistry of direct welfare, now presents a formidable barrier to any nascent political challenge. Consequently, the establishment pole remains firmly entrenched, and the prospect of a transition in Fort St George appears more distant than ever.

Feb 12, 2026
Shubhi Malhotra & Dr Adityanjee

Fostering a Time-Tested Strategic Partnership: Redefining a Multi-Polar World

Introduction The changing landscape of global politics brought the idea of multipolarity back into the international spotlight at the beginning of 2026. The world order is not based on one power or bloc being in charge, but on many centres of influence working together. Last year, the US openly endorsed the idea of a G-2 condominium with China, redefining the global geopolitical order. Resistance to the idea of a G-2 condominium forced US President Trump to enunciate the C-5, rather than the G-7, as the core group of countries for maintaining a stable international order. This grudging acceptance by President Trump has renewed the debate on the inevitability of a multipolar world, while acknowledging geopolitical rivalries and institutional asymmetries. India’s signing of multiple free trade agreements with the UK, the EU, New Zealand, Oman, the UAE, etc., has forced the US to come to the table and walk back the punitive 25% tariffs on Indian exports to the US for purchasing discounted Russian oil. Furthermore, refunding the already collected tariffs to India suggests that the US is now forced to accept the reality of the India-Russia bilateral relationship, which cannot be jettisoned on flimsy issues. Despite numerous proclamations from Washington DC, India has not given an iron-clad commitment to stop buying crude oil from Russia and has only alluded to market conditions deciding India’s energy import preferences. In this context, the annual India- Russia bilateral summits stand out as an important diplomatic platform that shows how both countries want to work together to make the world a more balanced place. Both countries have increasingly advocated for strategic independence, decisional autonomy, diversified partnerships, and sovereignty and equality for all, as the foundation for global stability. The annual summit serves as a crucial platform that reinforces long-standing bilateral strategic ties, underscoring the commitment of both countries to a balanced world order and inclusive global governance. In other words, it is an institutional framework that serves as an anchor for stability in bilateral relations despite headwinds from other powers. Historical Aspect of the Bilateral Partnership Dating back to the Cold War, the relationship between India and the former USSR (now Russia) has a long history of trust and friendship. The foundation for the partnership was laid down by the Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation in 1971, which lasted through generations of changes in ideology. Post 1991, when the Soviet Union fell apart, India and the Russian Federation worked to strengthen their ties. In 2000, they signed the Declaration on Strategic Partnership, and in 2010, they upgraded it to a "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership”. The two countries held annual summits to make high-level political dialogue a regular part of their relationship. This allowed for ongoing cooperation in areas like defence, energy, science, technology, and diplomacy. This long-lasting partnership is the foundation on which modern summit meetings try to build a world order that is more balanced. The India-Russia Summit as a Strategic Base The last India-Russia Summit was more than just a meeting between two countries; it was also a way for the two countries to work together on regional and global issues. The summit allowed both countries to reaffirm their strategic independence and policy independence in a time when alliances are changing, the world is becoming more fragmented, and countries are competing for power. This annual forum brings together India's goal of "multi-alignment" and Russia's focus on "strategic sovereignty." Both countries support a variety of partnerships instead of just aligning with one bloc or the other. This naturally supports multipolarity. The annual summit has now become a place for more discussions about changes to global governance, regional stability, development of global south, mutual prosperity, free and fair trade, and economic resilience. Cooperation in Defence and Balance of Power: Defence cooperation still forms a major stakeholder in the corporation between India and Russia, which is also a big part in keeping the world stable. For decades now, Russia has been one of the most dependable defence partners of India, giving advanced platforms like the S-400 Air Defence System, nuclear-powered submarines, and BrahMos missiles. This partnership eventually strengthens India's ability to counter threats. Indirectly, Russia also helps to keep a multipolar world order by allowing India to maintain its strategic independence, making sure that no one power bloc controls all of India's defence partnerships. This ensures a more even distribution of military power in the Indo - Pacific and Eurasian regions. The Economic and Energy Aspects of Multipolarity: The summit also shows how increasing economic and energy cooperation can be used to get involved in a multipolar world. India needs Russia as an energy partner, especially in the oil, gas, and nuclear energy sectors. Long-term energy deals help India make its supply chains more diverse and less likely to be affected by geopolitical problems. Both countries also support alternatives to the supremacy of the dollar in trade through national currency settlements and other financial tools. These kinds of projects challenge the dominance of Western-centred financial systems and encourage a more diverse global economic structure, which is an important part of a multipolar world. Global Governance and Multilateralism: India and Russia both want to change the way global governance works so that it better reflects the world as it is today. Both countries want the United Nations Security Council to be more representative, and Russia has always supported India's claim to permanent membership. Through groups like G20, BRICS, MTCR, Australia Group, Wassenaar Arrangement, and SCO, both India and Russia work together to enhance the voices of strategic stability and the global South and highlight it at a global level. In this regard, the India-Russia summit strengthened this initiative further by highlighting the principles, such as respect and sovereignty for all and inclusive development. Tackling Global Polarisation: As the world is becoming increasingly divided due to geopolitical rivalries, especially between the developed Western countries and the developing and emerging countries, such as that of Asia, the relationship between Russia and India is becoming increasingly complicated. It is very evident that in today's scenario, India shares strong ties with countries such as the USA and Europe, while Russia is becoming closer to countries like China and non-Western partners. The US under President Trump understands the importance of Russia as a serious global partner instead of letting it become a junior partner of China. India, despite having border problems and recent clashes with China, is managing bilateral relations with China in a prudent manner. This makes the strategic task of maintaining the bilateral partnership more of a diplomatic balancing act. Although there are different political views, the India-Russia summit is a sign that even after so many complications, the ties are still strong owing to common vested interests and deep-rooted cooperation. This collaboration underscores that multipolarity signifies coexistence and cooperation, rather than confrontation, despite differing ideologies. Problems and Limitations Although the annual bilateral summit shows the strong partnership between two countries, eventually strengthening the desire for a multipolar world, but it is not without problems. As India is increasingly diversifying its defence and energy sectors, it has started interacting with other countries apart from Russia. Additionally, the Western sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine/EU/NATO War have brought to the fore the changing regional dynamics. This resulted in the levy of secondary and tertiary sanctions on India and some Indian companies that have nothing to do with this tribal European war of strategic domination. All this makes it hard for deep involvement between the two. The problems in negotiating a bilateral free trade agreement with the US have become hostage to the US demands that mandate India to curtail the purchase of energy and armament from Russia. In this context, Russia has already expressed its concern at the US trying to interfere in the bilateral relationship by persuading India to commit to stopping future purchases of Russian crude oil. As Russia works on its own pathways and changes in this tense geopolitical environment, India needs to ensure that it does not become too dependent on other countries, including the US, weakening its historical ties with Russia. But as we highlight these problems, we also understand the importance these dialogue platforms hold, like the summit that was held between two countries, since it allows both countries to directly interact and work on their dynamics to continue their strong partnership in this changing world. Conclusions The US and China need to remember that international relations are not a zero-sum game. India’s relationship with the Russian Federation is not at the expense of India’s bilateral relationship with either the US or China. India has never subscribed to the mentality of military alliances and power blocs. Hence, the India-Russia annual summit is a sign of shared commitment, strategic trust, and diplomatic stability in a newly emerging world order with many poles. By encouraging cooperation in various sectors such as defence, diplomacy, energy, and global governance, this summit helps make the world a more balanced one. Despite India’s interim framework for a bilateral free trade agreement with the US being signed, India will not yield its policy options and bilateral relations with the Russian Federation at the altar of an unpredictable, unreliable and often tumultuous US-India bilateral relationship. In a nutshell, in these uncertain times of change, the India-Russia partnership shows that multipolarity is not just a theory, but a stark reality that cannot be wished away by one hyperpower. A world where power is spread out, voices are heard, and sovereignty is protected through interaction and mutual respect - this is the aim of the India-Russia relationship and the annual summit. This continued bilateral engagement is still shaping and holds a promise for not just peace and cooperation between India and Russia, but for the entire world. References Joint Statement following the 23rd Russia-India Annual Summit, December 05, 2025 “Russia-India: A Time-Tested Progressive Partnership, Anchored in Trust & Mutual Respect“. (n.d.). President of Russia. https://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/6426 MEA. (n.d.). State visit of the president of the Russian Federation H.E. Mr. Vladimir Putin, to India (December 04 - 05, 2025). Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/40346/State_Visit_of_the_President_of_the_Russian_Federation_HE_Mr_Vladimir_Putin_to_India_December_04__05_2025 Narayanan, M. K. (2025, December 23). Putin’s visit to India and the aftermath. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/putins-visit-to-india-and-the-aftermath/article70425676.ece PIB. (n.d.). From strategic partnership to special and privileged bond: India-Russia relations at a glance. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2198621®=3&lang=2 Programme of the Russia-India conference 2025. (n.d.). Valdai Club. https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/programme-of-the-russia-india-conference-2025/