June 7, 1981 – Israel: Eight F-16s and six F-15s took off Etzion Air Force base with their blazing afterburners, with a full load of weapons and drop tanks.  The destination was approximately 1600 kilometers north east of Jerusalem.  It was the outskirts of Baghdad, the Iraqi capital city.  The mission target was Osirak, President Saddam Hussein’s nuclear reactor. Osirak was Saddam’s dream towards nuclear weapons production.  The Israeli jets had to violate the airspaces of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq for this audacious mission.  The entire flight path of the Israeli Air Force jets till the Osirak reactor went undetected evading the radars of the Saudi, Jordan and Iraqi forces.  Once on the target the F-16s released their entire payload and the reactor was completely destroyed along with the dream of the Iraqi tyrant to possess nuclear weapons.  The attack took 100 minutes from the time the jets took off from Etzion till the bomb release on the reactor.  It was a text book surgical strike to preempt Iraq from turning nuclear thereby becoming an existential threat to Israel, for it was every Israeli’s fear that Iraq would aim the nukes against Israel.  Operation Opera as it was code named went into history as an audacious and a successful preemptive strike that completely changed the course of the middle-east and to an extent the world history.

September 1984 – India and Pakistan:

Ten years after the Buddha smiled in Pokhran-Rajasthan-India, Pakistan woke up to a rude shock.  It had learnt from its staunch ally, the United States of America, through the CIA that India was planning to launch a surprise attack on Pakistan’s nuclear research facility at Kahuta.  Yes. Indian planners under the leadership of then Prime Minister  Indira Gandhi had obviously taken a leaf out of the Israeli preemptive strike on the Osirak reactor.  Kahuta housed Pakistan’s premier nuclear reactor where at that time it was pursuing nuclear weapons covertly.  Going by the nature of the then prevailing circumstances India’s preemptive strike plan on Kahuta was justified.

Before we move on any further it is essential to delve into the pages of history which goes on to show that a preemptive strike was indeed planned by India.  Way back in 1994 in their book “Critical Mass” authors William E Burrows and Robert Windrem say:

“… that the Pakistani Intelligence learned – perhaps from its great friend CIA Director William Casey – that India was about to launch a surprise attack against Kahuta”.

They also go on to say that India backed out after Pakistan sent an explicit message that all of Indian nuclear reactors will be attacked by their fighter aircrafts if Kahuta was hit. (Chapter 11, Critical Mass)

The Indian Express on October 16, 2015 quoting declassified documents of the United States Department of State wrote that during September 1984 US Ambassador Dean Hinton informed Gen. Zia-ul-Haq, the Pakistani Dictator that the US would notify Pakistan immediately of any signs that India was preparing for a preemptive strike.  On October 26, 2015 The Indian Express also quotes a report in the ABC Television that a preemptive strike by India on Kahuta was imminent which in turn was based on a briefing by the CIA to an US Senate Intelligence subcommittee.  Declassified documents available on the US Department of State website clearly indicate that the US warned Pakistan on the imminent threat.

The declassified document titled “Talking Points for use in delivering letter to President Zia” (Unclassified U.S. Department of State Case No. M-2012-29662 Doc No. C05581078 Date: 01/21/2015) marked secret and sensitive states among other points:

“In our judgement, it is likely that at some point India will take military action to preempt your nuclear program”.

Missed Opportunity:

While there are multiple points of references to prove Indian intentions to mount a preemptive strike on Kahuta and that India backed out of the plan, the point to be noted here is there was an opportunity that India had lost which would have changed the power balance in South Asia forever.

Having been a victim of low intensity war waged by Pakistan, India’s proactive and retaliatory actions have always been limited, contained and restrained by the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear armed neighbor and any action on the part of India may risk a nuclear retaliation by Pakistan.  Political decisions as well as military were made so as to ensure the so called “nuclear threshold” of Pakistan was not breached.  This had major fallout in terms of the effectiveness of the decisions taken.  While there were no known preemptive strikes on Pakistan till September 29, 2016 in the form of neutralizing terror camps or eliminating high value targets sheltered by Pakistan, the retaliatory actions by Indian military and political class didn’t pay desired dividends. In hindsight if India had preempted Pakistan from going nuclear, Pakistan would have been at the mercy of India and the world.

New Opportunities:

The surgical strikes on terror launch pads by the Indian Army on the September 29, 2016 were a game changer.  This was also a text book surgical strike executed by the Indian Army and speaks volumes about the planning, co-ordination and determination of our forces.  It is extremely interesting to note that not only was it a surgical strike but it also was a preemptive one.  The strikes were mounted on terror launch pads and the terrorists there, who were planning to strike Indian targets in Kashmir and the rest of the country.

Pakistan is caught between the proverbial rock and a hard surface.  What it supports covertly has been the target of a preemptive surgical strike on its own soil for which they cannot cry victim to the rest of the world.  Even under international law, India by proving and publicizing the strike as a measure to prevent planned attacks on Indian metros, has done good to bolster international support for its actions as also delaying or even denying Pakistan any opportunity to retaliate. The surgical strikes of September 29, 2016 thereby mark a paradigm shift in India’s response to its war on terror. 

Having called Pakistan’s nuclear bluff with a successful preemptive operation coupled by coercive diplomacy aimed at Pakistan’s isolation, a new beginning has been made.  Will India adopt a preemptive strike as a doctrine and a state policy like that of the Begin Doctrine of Israel and the Bush Doctrine of the United States, only time can answer.

Sources:

1. The Indian Express web links:

http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/in-fact-did-india-plan-a-covert-military-attack-on-a-pakistani-nuclear-reactor/

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/us-had-warned-zia-of-indian-strike-on-pakistan-n-sites/

2. United States Department of State website: https://foia.state.gov

3. “Critical Mass – The Dangerous Race for Super Weapons in a Fragmenting World”:  Authored by William Burrows and Robert Windrem