Supreme Court has upheld Sasikala’s conviction in the disproportionate assets case setting aside the Karnataka High Court’s order acquitting her along with former Tamilnadu Chief Minister, Jayalalitha.

With Sasikala’s conviction, the Tamil Nadu politics seem to have reached an anti-climax but let us not call it a day as Tamil Nadu has its unique way of springing in a surprise. Sasikala’s team is trying to prop up Edapadi Palanisamy as CM by appointing him as AIADMK legislature leader and trying to rule from behind. The climax is expected to happen in the Tamil Nadu Assembly with the composite voting deciding the future of Tamilnadu politics in the short-term. But it is not just Sasikala vs O. Panneerselvam in the Tamil Nadu assembly. DMK under M.K. Stalin with 89 MLAs might throw in a surprise if 1/3rd of the MLAs from Sasikala’s group decide to support Stalin (thereby nullifying the application of Anti-Defection law against them)

Tamil Nadu politics is at a riveting phase with the death of Jayalalithaa. The glamor world of Tamil Nadu cinema industry was dominating the politics for the past 48 years since Karunanidhi became the Chief Minister in 1969. Now this phase seems to be over unless someone like Rajinikanth joins the politics if rumors become true.

The current Chief Minister, O. Panneerselvam (OPS) has suddenly morphed himself into a mass leader riding on the anti-Sasikala wave. His dignified personality and the passing of the Jallikattu bill has only added to his popularity. He is most likely to head the AIADMK as seen by the trends in the last few days.

Many in Tamil Nadu, I spoke to, believe that BJP with staunch support from RSS is throwing its weight behind OPS, hoping to fill the political void left behind by Jayalalitha and the weakening of the Dravidian political forces. But that might be far-fetched considering Tamilians’ view of BJP as a Nationalist party with inclination for Hindi Imposition.  And few in the rural Tamil Nadu had not forgotten BJP’s support for Jayalalitha in banning the Animal sacrifice rituals in 2003, which was part of the village idol worship practices in Tamil Nadu. Do note that village idol worship practice is the cornerstone of Hinduism in rural Tamil Nadu while the mainstream Hinduism stays in the fringe. Many in Tamil Nadu, viewed this as the homogenizing of Hinduism practices and subsequently Jayalalitha lost the elections. Also, BJP leader, Subramanian Swamy’s bombastic statements during Jallikattu protests or his support for Sasikala is not helping the situation for BJP. Ironically, it is Subramanian Swamy, who is the architect of the Disproportionate Assets Case

But all this can change if Rajinikanth picks up the reins of BJP in Tamil Nadu or if communities like Kongu Vellala Gounders decide to switch their allegiance from AIADMK to BJP. AIADMK enjoys the support of 2 major castes since the days of MGR, Kongu Vellala Gounders in the West Tamil Nadu and Thevars in the South. The political rivalry between these 2 communities within the party was kept on leash by Jayalalitha. But with OPS, who belongs to the Thevar community, as party head, the rivalry might play out in the open and Kongu Vellala Gounders might throw in their support for BJP. Do note that BJP had gained support around Coimbatore after Hindu-Muslim clashes from the 1990s and the Coimbatore bomb blasts of 1998, ironically it happened today (Feb 14th).

And let us not forget the other major party, DMK, where M.K. Stalin has taken control of the party and put up a tough fight against Jayalalitha in the recent Tamilnadu assembly elections where the DMK party gained 89 MLAs as opposed to Jayalalithaa’s 136 MLAs.  With Jayalalithaa’s demise, DMK stands a chance to gain in a major way and might become the dominant party in the foreseeable future.

And there are other communities like Nadirs and Scheduled castes (who are 20% of the total population) who make the political field even more intriguing.

Tamil Nadu, true to its penchant for cinema, comes up with its own brilliant twist in the plot keeping the political viewers fascinated.