The Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) was the first event on European soil for the new Trump administration followed closely by the Munich Security Conference. In both these events, representatives of the Trump administration rebuked European leaders and displayed scant regard for the trans-Atlantic alliance. It was sending a message that the US does not consider its European allies as equal partners.

Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of Defence, mentioned to members of the UDCG that the Ukraine war would end but not under conditions placed by Europe or Ukraine. He ruled out Ukraine’s entry into NATO. Hitting harder, he mentioned that security guarantees for Ukraine must flow from Europe and that European nations must enhance their defence budgets. Finally, he warned that Europe cannot depend on the US for its security.

Following Pete was the US Vice President, JD Vance, who lambasted Europe on free speech and its migration policies, in his address at the Munich Security Conference, ignoring expected subjects of Gaza and Ukraine. He claimed Europe faced a greater threat from within, than Russia or China. Vance criticised those who blocked the far-right as those who also suppressed freedom of speech. Trump and the European far-right have a lot in common, both are against illegal migration and rights for the LGBTQ community.

Vance’s verbal assault shook Europe. His comments came less than 10 days before a crucial national election in Germany, the most powerful European nation, where the far-right was hoping to grab power. Adding to Europe’s problems is Trump’s threat of unilateral tariffs and also invading Greenland.

Europe attempted to hit back, justifying its policies but to no avail. For decades, European nations, mainly Germany, had been lecturing the Global South on democracy. Now was payback time. The Global South watched as the European leadership squirmed, unable to defend themselves from Vance’s attack.

Worse was to come. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, stated in a discussion at the same conference that Europe would not have a seat at the high table when peace in Ukraine is discussed between Trump and Putin, despite the US demanding that Europe pay for reconstruction of Ukraine as also deploy its troops there in a peacekeeping role, a subject Russia ruled out.

The Swedish foreign minister, Maria Stenergard, mentioned, “We really need to be at the table if we are supposed to be on the ground.” It cut no ice. For European leaders, this was a setback. All the US did was send a questionnaire seeking inputs on Europe’s security guarantees for Ukraine.

Reeling from the shock, European leaders huddled in Paris hoping to evolve a joint response. Even here there was disunity. President Macron invited just 7 Western European nations, ignoring others, who claimed partiality. Fighting back, European leaders proposed military aid for Ukraine beginning with 6 billion Euro.

Trump has displayed that he intends to rush through his agenda. The first round of talks between US and Russian diplomats have concluded in Riyadh, ignoring Europe and Ukraine. Trump did mention that Ukraine would have a place in the final discussion, however, Zelensky’s role was not defined.

The message that the US conveyed to Europe was that it had lived off the US, militarily and economically for a long time. It must now face reality. Most European nations' armed forces are hollow, lacking even basic capabilities. Germany began concentrating on its defence forces only after the Russian invasion. Nations have yet to reach 2% spending of their GDP on defence.

Europe as a whole also failed to develop their war industries despite large equipment demands for Ukraine, while US industries profited and enlarged. Europe missed the bus and hence, has only itself to blame.

The US repeatedly mentioning that its military presence in Europe can no longer be taken for granted, as it has other responsibilities, including countering China, has placed Europe on notice. Trump has yet to enter the European battlefield with his demand of 5% of GDP for defence. He will throw this at the next NATO summit. The day he does, Europe will receive another jolt.

Europe lectures others on democracy, while it behaves differently. Jaishankar conveyed the message when he mentioned at the Munich conference, “If I were to look at what Western Ambassadors do in India if my ambassadors did a fraction of that, you would all be up in arms. I think there are double standards here.”

The reality is that Europe is losing the plot, though it believes it is still relevant. It is a waning power, struggling to stay relevant. The Ukrainian armed forces are currently far more experienced and capable than most European forces. Putin is aware of this and considers Europe divided and hesitant, despite its economy being over 10 times Russia’s.

Pete and Vance have conveyed a warning. Will Europe listen? France’s European affairs minister, Benjamin Haddad, understood and mentioned, “Denial is no longer possible. The message is clear: It’s time to take our responsibilities, to safeguard our own security.”

The major disagreement between Europe and the US is the Russian threat. European leaders believe that they could be Moscow’s next target, while Washington thinks otherwise. Europe is itself divided with many East European nations seeking rapprochement with Moscow. It will take years before Europe develops military power to challenge Russia.

The criticism levied by Pete and Vance as well as the US decision to keep Europe out of negotiations was music to Russia. Moscow is anyway not keen that Europe be invited to the talks nor would it accept European troops in Ukraine.
While European leaders and Ukraine’s Zelensky have stated that no deal can be made without Ukraine’s acceptance, they are aware that without US support, Ukraine cannot survive. Further, even Europe’s security guarantees unless backed by the US are meaningless. The US is aware and openly showing Europe its place and compelling it to toe its line, knowing it is now a declining power.

Ultimately, the US will consult European leaders as also Zelensky prior to accepting a ceasefire. To get them to toe the US line, putting them under shock is essential. While some representatives of Europe including Ukraine may be on the table, it is unlikely they would have much to contribute.

First Published in The Stateman. Republished with the permission of the author.