The BJP-led NDA is all set to form its successive Government at the Centre with the Lok Sabha election results, 2024 throwing up a verdict that also brought cheer to the opposition INDI Alliance with the Congress Party almost touching the 100-seat mark. The elections turned out to be a much closer battle than predicted by the exit polls, which gave a huge majority to the ruling alliance at the Centre. Apart from its clean sweep in Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, the best news for the BJP came from Odisha, where it is going to form its first overnment. The BJP’s campaign based on Odisha Asmita was successful in ousting the two decades old Naveen Patnaik government from the state.

However, with respect to the North-East, except in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura and Sikkim, the BJP-led NDA failed to put up a strong show in the Christian-majority states. Focusing on local and ethnic issues and the fight against corruption, two regional parties in the North-East – the lesser-known Voice of the People Party (VPP) in Meghalaya and the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) in Mizoram – won their first-ever Lok Sabha seats in this year’s elections. Some other regional parties, who are allied with the BJP – the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) in Assam, and the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) in Sikkim – secured one Lok Sabha seat each.

In Assam, the BJP-led alliance, together with its regional allies, the AGP and the UPPL, won 11 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats, leaving three seats for the main opposition Party, the Congress. The AGP has its own reasons to celebrate, as it is all set to make it to the Lok Sabha after a gap of almost 15 years. Phani Bhushan Choudhury of the AGP wrested the Barpeta seat from the Congress to fill the vacuum of the Party in the Lok Sabha after Joseph Toppo, who had been elected from the Tezpur Lok Sabha constituency in 2009. The UPPL, on the other hand, tasted victory in the Lok Sabha polls in its very first attempt.

UPPL candidate Joyanta Basumatary won from the Kokrajhar (ST) constituency, which was held by independent candidate Naba Sarania (backed by Oboro Suraksha Samiti) for two consecutive terms. Joyanta Basumatary defeated his nearest rival and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) candidate Kampa Borgoyari by a margin of over 50,366 votes. Naba Sarania, with fake ST certificates, stood as an independent candidate and won the elections in 2014 and 2019 by a significant margin, defeating the BPF and UPPL candidates. But, after a long battle by the Bodoland Janajati Suraksha Mancha (BJSM) since 2014 over his ST certificates, the Gauhati High Court pronounced his ST certificate as fake this year. Subsequently, his candidature was rejected during scrutiny in the Kokrajhar constituency.

The BJP kept its tally at 9, the same as what it was in 2019. The Congress also maintained its tally at 3, similar to what it was in 2019. However, the NDA improved its overall vote share to nearly 46%, a huge jump from the 39% vote share it secured in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 44% in the 2021 Assembly elections. This has been achieved despite the presence of an overwhelming population of Muslims in the state. Prominent winners from the BJP in Assam included Union Minister and former Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal (Dibrugarh), who defeated Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) President Lurinjyoti Gogoi. Shockingly, Maulana Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) drew a blank this year.

The AIUDF, which had a big say in Assam’s minority politics since 2005 and has been making it to the Lok Sabha since 2009, fielded candidates in several Muslim-dominated Lok Sabha constituencies this year but humiliatingly failed to perform in any of them. The AIUDF’s loss may further precipitate the defection of party leaders and workers to the Congress in the coming days. To recall, the AIUDF had won one seat in 2009, three seats in 2014, and one seat in 2019. Over the years, the Party had been able to carve out for itself a distinct identity among the Muslims of Assam.

The impact of the recent delimitation exercise in Assam on the electoral results has also been quite significant. In the last Lok Sabha polls, the Congress won from the Nagaon, Barpeta, and Kaliabor (now Kaziranga) seats. However, in this year’s elections, as a result of delimitation and the subsequent shifting of Muslim votes, it lost Barpeta and Kaliabor (now Kaziranga). However, the losses were compensated with the seats of Dhubri (Rakibul Hussain) in Lower Assam where the AIUDF was defeated by a huge margin of around 9 lakh votes, Jorhat (Gaurav Gogoi) in Upper Assam, and Nagaon (Pradyut Bordoloi) in Middle Assam.

In Jorhat, consolidation of the Ahom and the Muslim votes in favour of the Congress Party ensured the eventual victory of Gaurav Gogoi. In fact, the emergence of Gaurav Gogoi as a key figure in the political scenario of Assam after his victory in Jorhat has the potential to pose a tougher electoral challenge for the BJP in the 2026 Assembly elections. It will be difficult for the BJP to ignore this political reality, even though Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s charismatic leadership and personality prevented the Congress Party from increasing its tally in the state and helped the BJP increase its vote share this time.

The BJP also clinched a surprise victory in the Karimganj Lok Sabha seat which had been made unreserved for the first time after delimitation. AIUDF candidate Sahabul Islam Chowdhury, who was supposed to play a decisive role, failed miserably in Karimganj. Comprising four Assembly segments in Karimganj district and two segments in Hailakandi after the recent delimitation, the Karimganj seat has more than two lakh Muslim votes compared to their Hindu counterparts. In Hailakandi, Chowdhury was ahead of the BJP by a margin of almost 66,000 votes. But the BJP managed to surpass the gap in the four seats of Karimganj district. The Ratabari and Patharkandi Assembly segments played a spoiler for the veteran minority leader.

In neighbouring Silchar too the BJP’s Parimal Suklabaidya set an all-time record by clinching a massive victory against his nearest rival Surya Kanta Sarkar. Suklabaidya registered his maiden victory this time after a few unsuccessful attempts in the past from the erstwhile reserved Karimganj seat. The Silchar Lok Sabha seat, reserved for the Scheduled Caste (SC) for the first time after delimitation, used to have a close contest in the past.

Coming to Arunachal Pradesh, Union Minister Kiren Rijiju and another BJP candidate and sitting MP Tapir Gao won the two Lok Sabha seats of Arunachal West and Arunachal East respectively. Overall, the BJP registered a landslide victory by winning 46 out of 60 seats in the Arunachal Pradesh Assembly. The BJP had already won 10 seats unopposed in Arunachal including the seats of Chief Minister Pema Khandu and Deputy Chief Minister Chowna Mein in March itself.

But, in a tough message to the BJP and its handling of the conflict in Manipur, the Congress Party won both the Lok Sabha seats in the state from the ruling BJP and its ally the Naga People’s Front (NPF). Despite trailing after the initial rounds of counting, JNU Professor and popular Meitei leader Angomcha Bimol Akoijam of the Congress won the Meitei-dominated Inner Manipur Lok Sabha seat after defeating BJP candidate and State Education Minister Thounaojam Basanta Kumar Singh by a margin of 1,09,801 votes. In the Outer Manipur Reserved Parliamentary seat dominated largely by the Naga and the Kuki tribes, the Congress Party’s Alfred Kanngam S. Arthur, a former Tangkhul Naga MLA from the Ukhrul Assembly Constituency, defeated NPF nominee Kachui Timothy Zimik by a margin of 85,418 votes. Simply speaking, a majority of the Nagas and the Kukis in Manipur voted against the NPF candidate, the NPF being an ally of the BJP. In other words, they voted for the Congress, as did the Meiteis.

The BJP’s saving grace, however, came in Tripura where the Party registered a clean sweep by winning both the seats with huge margins. Former Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb won Tripura West by defeating Congress State President Ashish Kumar Saha by a margin of over six lakh votes. In Tripura East, Kriti Devi Debbarman, sister of Tipra Motha Chief Pradyot Debbarman, defeated CPI (M) candidate Rajendra Reang by over 4.86 lakh votes. In 2019, the BJP had won both these seats. While Rebati Tripura won from Tripura East, Pratima Bhowmik bagged the Tripura West seat. 

In Mizoram, the ruling Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) candidate Richard Vanlalhmangaiha, an entrepreneur, won the lone Mizoram Lok Sabha seat defeating the Opposition Mizo National Front (MNF)’s K. Vanlalvena, a sitting Rajya Sabha member, by an unassailable margin of 68,288 votes. The ZPM, for the first time, got a parliamentary seat. Altogether, six candidates including the Congress Party’s Lalbiakzam, former State Home Secretary and lone woman candidate Rita Malsawmi of Mizoram People’s Conference (MPC), contested the solitary parliamentary seat from the mountainous state.

To recall, the ZPM was constituted in 2018 and came to power in last year’s November 7 Assembly polls, crushing the MNF, a constituent of the NDA’s North-East chapter, i.e. the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) led by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Although his party is a new player in the parliamentary elections, Chief Minister and ZPM President Lalduhoma was elected to the Lok Sabha in 1984 on a Congress ticket but later quit the party and was disqualified under the anti-defection law in 1988. Prior to the elections this year, Lalduhoma had already announced that his Party would maintain equidistance from both the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA bloc.  

In a shocking verdict for the incumbent Lok Sabha MPs from Meghalaya, Vincent H. Pala from the Shillong Parliamentary seat and Agatha K. Sangma (sister of Chief Minister Conrad Sangma) from the Sangma family’s “carefully nurtured” Tura seat in the Garo Hills, lost by huge margins. Both Pala and Sangma were Ministers during the then Congress-led UPA Government. In the Shillong seat, Voice of the People Party (VPP) candidate Ricky Andrew J. Syngkon defeated State Congress President and former Union Minister Vincent Pala by 3.7 lakh votes. In the Garo-dominated Tura Lok Sabha seat, Saleng A. Sangma of the Congress defeated Agatha Sangma of the National People’s Party (NPP) by around 1.55 lakh votes.

Formed in December 2021, the rabidly Christian VPP had contested 18 seats in the February 2023 Meghalaya Legislative Assembly elections and won four seats, sending a clear message that a formidable political force was in the offing in the Khasi-Jaintia Hills region of the state. Its phenomenal rise, which caught the imagination of ordinary people within a very short span of time, is a watershed moment in the politics of the hill state. The Party now looks forward to extending its base further and assuming power in the next Assembly elections in Meghalaya. This time, it was not aligned to any alliance either INDIA or NDA.  

Broadly speaking, the alliance between the NPP and the BJP in Christian-dominated Meghalaya was rejected by the people, which helped the VPP to secure a record number of votes. This was facilitated by the near-complete transfer of the Christian tribal vote to the Congress. E.g. in Tura, almost 65%-75% of the Christian tribal votes shifted to the Congress, a phenomenon that has not happened in the last three decades. Founded by former Union Minister, Lok Sabha Speaker and Chief Minister P.A. Sangma, the NPP, led now by his son, Chief Minister Conrad K. Sangma with 26 MLAs, dominates the Meghalaya Democratic Alliance Government and also has legislators in Arunachal Pradesh (5), Manipur (7) and Nagaland (5). However, at present, the NPP would remain unrepresented in the Lok Sabha after several decades.

Nagaland’s lone Lok Sabha seat was wrested by Congress candidate S.S. Jamir from the ruling Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), which led the eight-party Peoples’ Democratic Alliance (PDA) Government in the opposition-less state. S.S. Jamir defeated NDPP’s Chumben Murry by over 50,000 votes. Murry, who won the seat in 2019, had the support of all 60 candidates in the Nagaland State Assembly, including those from the ruling BJP. Interestingly, the Congress Party neither has any members in the current Assembly nor the previous one.

Overall, the Congress has disrupted the BJP’s aspirations for a complete victory in the North-Eastern states, which collectively hold 25 Lok Sabha seats. It is certainly a setback to the development agenda of the BJP, especially at a time when many crucial infrastructure and connectivity Projects in the region including the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral (IMTT) Highway are on the verge of completion. Especially in a state like Manipur, a mixed coalition Government will have a tough time ahead in making big decisions. 

The BJP Government under PM Modi’s leadership has undoubtedly invested a lot in the North-East from infrastructure and connectivity to trade and development. But, can development always be the answer to the myriad problems inflicting this region, especially cultural and civilisational problems? People here voted for the Congress perhaps because there was no other alternative. But, a course correction on the part of the BJP is certainly the need of the hour.

Image source: Oneindia.com