Turkey’s failed coup of July 15^th reminisces its incredible journey from the Ataturk’s secularism to Islamic overtures of Erdogan. The formidable Ottoman Empire, the last trans-continental Islamic Caliphate that reigned for over seven centuries crumbled following a devastating defeat in World War I. The legendary Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, struggled to crave modern day Turkey from the vestiges of the Islamic Caliphate, aspired to steer clear off the Persian influences and embraced Western thinking. Motivated by the phenomenal transformation brought about the industrial revolution, Ataturk consciously banned and erased the influences of Persian Civilization. Besides, enshrining the ideals of secularism and democracy in the Constitution of Turkey, he entrusted the task of upholding founding principles with Turkish Army.

As a guardian of Turkish democracy, over the past 60 years, the military has intervened whenever the country abdicated the constitutional order. So far, Turkey has faced five coups and each time after the coup, military handed over the power to the politicians. Turkey encountered the first coup on May 27^th, 1960 when the President and Prime Minister were tried for treason, misuse of public funds and abrogation of constitution. It was followed by 1971 Turkish Military Memorandum to restore normalcy after unrest caused by economic recession. The 1980 Turkish Coup contained escalation of clashes between left and right wing groups.

In 1993 covert military coup was attempted and in 1997 Turkish Military memorandum caused forced resignation of Islamic Welfare Party Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan (1). Welfare Party with roots in the Mili Gorus Islamist movement (the largest Islamic Organization of the West, warranted against close relations with Europe) was the first political party in Turkey with Islamist leanings. Post-Coup Welfare Party suffered a vertical divide. A splintered branch under the name of Justice & Development Party (AKP) led by current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan clinched power in 2002 with mere 34% of vote share. AKP retained strong Islamic orientation of Mili Gorus but was inclusive with proclivity to West.

Shortly after assuming power, to accelerate expedite the accession process, Erdogan smartly reduced the powers of military and congruently brought about the civilian-military balance of power in line with EU’s mandated stipulations. Erdogan impetuously pushed forward the agenda of obtaining EU membership. He tamed the Turkish Army forces and installed a pliant leadership at the helm of affairs. In line with the Copenhagen criteria he designated more power to civilian regime and sidelined the National Security Council (MGK) authority. Despite Erdogan’s rebalancing acts, the military issued deft warnings to AKP when it tried to appoint Abdullah Gul as its presidential candidate in 2007 and reprimanded AKP for undermining the secular credentials of Turkey.

To downsize the influence of military, AKP and Gulenists worked in tandem. Gulenists are followers of Fethullah Gulen, a writer, Imam (who preaches Sunni (Hanafi) version of Islam), preacher and a politician. Western media, portrays him as an Imam with moderate ideas promoting tolerant Islam, emphasizes hard work and education. He strongly abhorred the secular traditions of Turkey and condemned the authoritarian secular brigade. Post the 1980 coup, Turkish authorities believed that Gulen can topple the government and hence imprisoned him for six years. He was again tried on charges of treason in 1999 following which he escaped to US on pretext of medical treatment. He stayed back in Pennsylvania and obtained green card in 2001. Gulen or Hizmat movement has immense following and most of his followers in Turkey hold higher positions in Judiciary and police forces.

But by and large Gulenists are opposed to the secular brigade of Turkey and wanted to liberate Turkey from the shackles of the secular traditions by penetrating the administrative set-up. Judiciary and Police Forces are riddled by Gulenists. Hence, when AKP came to power and had to bear the tough opposition of the secular forces they found a natural ally in Gulenists as both ardently adhere to Sunni Islam. Together they, witch-hunted senior military officials, opposition leaders, journalists, media personnel by fabricating stories, planting evidence and finally prosecuting them for indulging in nefarious activities. The Ergenekon trials of 2008 and Sledgehammer case of 2010, successfully implicated 15% of senior military officers (2). Military officials are imprisoned on allegations of attempting to remove a democratically elected government by staging a coup. Charges included a detailed plan of bombing two Istanbul Mosques and accuse Greece of shooting Turkish Plane flying over Aegean Sea which can create chaos and justifying a military coup. By making expositions in the media, AKP and Gulenists garnered enough support to prosecute the officials on the basis of fabricated charges. To effectively dethrone the towering presence of Turkish military, AKP and Gulenists together forged alliance.

By 2012 overpowered by mutual distrust and Gulenists stiff resistance to AKP’s peace negotiations with Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) the rift widened. With the summoning of National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) chief, a confidant of Erdogan by Gulenists in the judiciary regarding the PKK issue, relations between the allies turned sour. By November 2013, Erdogan destroyed the alliance by closing prep schools, which are source of finances and recruitment for Gulenists. These were followed by retaliatory raids conducted by Gulenists on the family members of Erdogan and alliance ministers of AKP. Implicating them of stashing hordes of Gold, Gulenists triggered protests that called for Erdogan’s resignation. While AKP espoused Political Islam Gulenists expounded the values of cultural Islam. But apparently, the objectives of Gulenists are not clear.

Both factions affirmatively reinforced faith in Islamist agenda hence the clashes can be construed as tug of war for power. The extensive network of Gulenists infiltrated nearly every arm of administration. With Gulenists literally occupying higher positions in administration they ran a parallel state. Erdogan survived the collective backlash unleashed by Gulenists in 2013. But to counter the powerful disposition of Gulenists in powerful positions, he ruthlessly expunged them from all arenas of administration. He targeted the media houses, banks, bureaucrats, entrepreneurs who were part of Gulenist movement. Further, Erdogan dissociated himself from the Ergenekon trials and sledgehammer cases. The court overturned some of the convictions made under these trials. Erdogan effectively played the victim card and galled at Gulenists, working as “state within a state”. He designated the intricate network of Gulenists as Gulen Terrorist Organisation (FETO) or Parallel State Organization by December 2015 and accused them of infiltrating the administration to unseat the government.

In the meanwhile the top military brass who were implicated in fabricated cases were stripped off their positions and replaced by more tractable officials. Erdogan thus restrained the unbridled authority of military. Hence all serving chiefs of armed forces are now intense loyalists of Erdogan. By 2014, the chaos and massive unrest in Syria began to dominate the Turkish politics. After the cessation of cease fire agreement with the Kurdish militants, military was designated with the task of conducting hot pursuits. With PKK abdicating the guerilla warfare and began targeting army check posts, urban dwellings and launching bomb attacks military intensified its operations and was busy in combing operations. These relentless operations took their toll on the military. While it elevated their stature and bestowed overwhelming authority and power, a faction of army was disgruntled by Erdogan’s role in fabrication of false charges against them. They were intensely worried about the growing authoritarianism of Erdogan and had qualms about his religious conservatism.

This disgruntled faction of the armed forces led by retired colonel Muharrem Kose is now believed to have launched the coup (3). Unlike the previous coups, this attempt was rather amateurish wherein even the President who was holidaying in Marmaris could fly to Istanbul without any trouble. Moreover, he reached out to 80 million Turkish people and urged them to occupy streets and repel the “enemies of democracy”. As against the formidable tasks of killing or capturing the President or Prime Minister of Turkey. The plotters managed to hold the chief of general staff as hostage briefly. The Coup which started at 10pm at night began with closure of the Bosphorous Strait that connects Europe with Asia. Parliament Building, President’s Palace and Prime Minister’s residence were attacked. Though the plotters opened fire on the protestors leading to the death of 50 civilians, ground forces of putschists eventually gave in.

But the aerial forces of plotters put on stiff resistance, indicating that the toughest opponents of Erdogan regime hailed from Turkish Air Forces. Till now almost 28% of the top brass of Turkish Army were arrested for their alleged involvement in coup (4). Aborted coup, empowered Erdogan in two ways- Firstly, despite hatred for Erdogan his staunch political opponents didn’t support coup attempt instead they joined protests and condemned it. Secondly, his plummeting popularity received a new lease with people remarkably responding to his call of taking to streets to stall the plotters. These events bestowed him with a moral high ground to take on his former political ally, Gulenists.

Clinching this rare opportunity, Erdogan lashed out at Fethullah Gulen for mastering the coup and officially launched the extradition process from the US. Meanwhile conflicting theories are afloat in media with critics opining that Erdogan himself might have orchestrated the coup following his sinking popularity among people. The conspiracy theory of US administration executing the coup to topple Erdogan regime through Gulenists began to take a huge toll on the already sour US-Turkey relationships. Ever since, US allied with Kurdish forces in Syria to fight IS, Turkey had serious misgivings with US. The relations further deteriorated with US and the West questioning Erdogan’s sanctions on press and media.

At the height of cold war, US welcomed Turkey into NATO for its enviable military prowess and to counter the aggressive spread of Russian allies in the region. Turkey is a key ally of NATO and US under the “Agreement for the cooperation on the uses of Atomic energy for Mutual Defense purposes signed in 1959,” began to build up nuclear assets in Turkey. US retained B-61 gravity bombs, nuclear artillery shells in Adana (Incirlik) Air base. US and Turkish Forces trained together to carry the nuclear weapons on planes. Failed coup attempts stoked fears about the safety and security of the nuclear weapons deployed by US in Turkey. US may now reassess its operations from Turkey and may look for alternative forward bases to launch attacks against IS. Meanwhile, Turkey stiffened its stance on extraditing Gulen with Prime Minister Binali Yildirim indicating that Turkey will go for a war with any country supporting Gulen.

Post-coup Turkey’s position on international arena has become fragile. Aside NATO’s serious reconsiderations about Turkey’s role, EU diplomats expressed concerns about probable surge in migrant exodus to Europe. Besides, Erdogan’s relentless Gulenist Purge has rattled the international community. As of now 60,000 educators, judges and police were suspended and 13,000 are arrested on charges of coup. With Turkish authorities openly announcing plausible execution of the alleged plotters, human rights organizations and especially European leaders are rattled. The worst fears are exacerbated with Turkey pulling out from the European Human Rights Court which bans executions. The West is now increasingly worried about Turkey’s reckless disposition on mass executions of alleged coup plotters.

Mass executions can irreversibly damage Turkey’s chances of EU accession. In March Turkey was close to clinching a migration deal with EU wherein it would shelter Syrian migrants reaching Greece in return for relocating Syrians in Turkey across various EU countries. To stem flow of refugees EU promised to deliver $3billion cash and offer a visa-free travel to Turks into Schengen region. Though European leaders are keen on upholding the migration deal which can reduce refugee inflows, they are reluctant to offer visa-free travel to Turks. Turkey has been struggling to comply with the 72 odd legal and technical clauses mandated by EU to obtain visa-waiver. Failed coup now raised fresh concerns about Turkey’s compliance to human rights violation and implementation of anti-terrorism legislation. Meanwhile, Erdogan upped his ante against Europe for failing to deliver the cash of $3 billion as promised.

Erdogan who affirmed the coup as gift of Allah, will now obliterate opposition, purge Gulenists from civil services, administration and literally annihilate dissent in any form. He will now attempt to change the existing constitution that bestows very limited powers to President. Erdogan who has become notoriously authoritative in the past decade would continue to amend the constitution to have absolute powers. His Islamic leanings and the intolerance might greatly polarize the Turkish society escalating tensions. Slowly but steadily the founding principles, democratic order and secular traditions may erode. Turkey which was an epitome of Islamic tolerance may face the torment of religious and secular divide. With Turkish army failing the secularists as ultimate protector, the one-man show might soon plunge Turkey into abyss of intolerance and jihadi culture. The counter revolution against the founding principles of modern republic like Turkey in West Asia is truly disheartening. The gradual descent of Turkey from the iconic moderate Islam to religious conservatism is exasperating.

References

1. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/04/20124472814687973.html
2. http://warontherocks.com/2016/07/the-causes-of-the-coup-attempt-in-turkey-a-history-of-the-usual-suspects/
3. http://warontherocks.com/2016/07/the-coup-operation-and-turkeys-fractured-military/
4. http://warontherocks.com/2016/07/the-coup-operation-and-turkeys-fractured-military/