On Thursday, US President Donald Trump warned Mexico of possible sanctions and tariffs over a disagreement about water sharing. He claimed that Mexico had violated an 81-year-old agreement and was "stealing from Texas farmers."

According to the 1944 treaty, Mexico is required to deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the United States every five years. This water comes from the Rio Grande and is sent through a system of connected dams and reservoirs. An acre-foot of water can fill roughly half of an Olympic-sized swimming pool. The ongoing five-year period ends in October, but Mexico has delivered less than 30% of the water it’s supposed to, based on data from the International Boundary and Water Commission. "Mexico owes Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water under the 1944 Water Treaty, but Mexico is unfortunately violating their Treaty obligation," Trump posted on Truth Social.

"My Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, is standing up for Texas Farmers, and we will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!" Trump said. In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated on X that under the terms of the pact, Mexico has been adhering "to the extent water is available" due to three years of drought. On Wednesday, Sheinbaum said that Mexico sent a proposal to U.S. officials to help with Texas's water supply. The proposal includes short-term steps. She told her environment, agriculture, and foreign ministers to get in touch with U.S. officials right away. "I am sure, as on other issues, an agreement will be reached," Sheinbaum said.

Mexican officials often say that a historic drought, worsened by climate change, has made it hard for them to meet their water-sharing promises. The treaty understands this and allows Mexico to carry over its water debt to the next five-year cycle. The treaty also says the US must send 1.5 million acre-feet of water each year to Mexico from the Colorado River. The US has mostly met this requirement, although it has recently sent less water due to a severe drought, something the 1944 treaty allows. Even though Mexico sends much less water to the US, it has had trouble meeting its part of the deal because of drought, outdated water systems, and increasing local water needs. U.S. politicians say that Mexico's expanding cattle and pecan farming near the border is using up a lot of water. They also claim that when Mexico doesn't send the agreed amount of water, it badly affects farmers in Texas who rely on it for their crops.

According to Reuters, Mexican officials are urgently working on a plan to send more water to the U.S., as there's growing worry that Trump might bring this issue into trade talks. Texas Republicans have openly said that Mexico often fails to deliver the water it's supposed to and is clearly not following the treaty. Mexico has agreed to send 122,000 acre-feet of water to the United States in an effort to boost its water deliveries, and it's also considering sending another 81,000 acre-feet, according to a Mexican official who spoke to Reuters. However, even with these efforts, Mexico would still have delivered less than 40% of the water it owes under the treaty. As the Mexican federal government tries to send more water to the U.S., it may face opposition from northern Mexican states that are protective of their water resources. In 2020, tensions over water deliveries led to a deadly clash between Mexico’s National Guard and farmers at the Boquilla Dam in Chihuahua state, where one protester was killed.