Trump 2.0: First Four Months, Geopolitical Decisions and Actions
- In Military & Strategic Affairs
- 06:57 PM, May 22, 2025
- Viren S Doshi
Trump Administration’s geopolitical decisions and actions from January 20, 2025 to May 20, 2025 covering India, Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Qatar, CCP-occupied China, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, Yemen, Palestine, other key countries, multilateral organisations, UN, as well as the decisions and actions covering Islamic terrorism, illegal immigration, university campus protesters, and “wokeists” have been summed up in this compilation.
This is a quick recap to provide a comprehensive view across the entire geopolitical spectrum, also bringing forth the interconnected aspects of various decisions and actions when viewed simultaneously.
This summary is also likely to help counter the CCP mooted vitriolic disinformation campaign to disrupt US relations with others by tarnishing the credibility of the Trump-led US and Trump's image.
Countries / Multilaterals
India
For:
Extradited Tahawwur Rana (2008 Mumbai attacks) to India on April 10, 2025, strengthening counterterrorism ties.
Arrested Khalistani terrorist Amarjeet Singh in California (March 2025).
Put in efforts for India-Pakistan ceasefire on May 10, 2025, halting fighting after an April 22 Pahalgam attack attributed to Pakistan-backed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance engaging PM Narendra Modi, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, and NSA Ajit Doval.
Trump pledged to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 during Modi’s February 2025 visit, with talks for a trade deal by autumn 2025.
Against:
Remittance Tax: A proposed 5% tax on remittances could impact Indian NRIs on H-1B, F-1 visas, and green card holders, as one fourth of India’s remittances come from the U.S. (This would affect other countries too, including CCP-occupied China and Pakistan. But, it would affect India the most.)
Tariffs and Trade: Imposed a 10% baseline tariff on India’s exports (e.g., textiles, gems, auto parts), effective April 5, 2025, covering 56.1% of exports ($74 billion in 2024).
A planned 26-27% reciprocal tariff, announced on April 2, 2025, to counter India’s 17% average tariff rate, was paused for 90 days on April 9, 2025, maintaining the 10% rate during trade negotiations. Exemptions apply to pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and copper.
The 10% tariff may reduce India’s GDP growth by 0.2%, though opportunities may arise from higher tariffs on competitors like CCP-occupied China.
India offered to reduce its tariff gap to under 4% and grant preferential access to 90% of U.S. goods to avoid future hikes.
Revoked 1,000+ student visas of students (some of them Indians) reportedly involved in undesirable activities.
Other: Supported Pakistan’s $1 billion IMF loan despite India’s terror concerns, but now an additional 11 stringent conditions have been applied on Pakistan. Provided $397 million in F-16 monitoring aid. Trump’s ceasefire announcement contradicted India’s stance against third-party mediation.
Note: Ceasefire left India’s punitive measures (e.g., Indus Waters Treaty suspension, visa bans) intact; India firmly rejected U.S. mediation on Kashmir. The measures apparently against Indian interests are likely to open up new opportunities as stated in the case of tariffs. Measures related to Pakistan are likely to flip Pakistan from CCP-occupied China to the US and thereby may be of respite given the potential of India-US relations vis-à-vis India-CCP conflict.
Israel
For: Endorsed Gaza operations, approved $11.41 billion in arms deals, sanctioned ICC for targeting Israeli leaders, and backed Gaza aid blockade and Palestinian resettlement to Egypt/Jordan. Negotiated with Hamas for American hostage Edan Alexander’s release (May 2025).
Against: Nuclear talks with Iran, Houthi airstrike cessation and Syria sanctions lift (opposed by Netanyahu) strained ties.
UAE
For: Secured $1.4 trillion in U.S. tech investments during Gulf tour (May 13-16, 2025). UAE’s mediation for Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchanges (4,181 prisoners) strengthened ties.
Against: Pressured to cut CCP-occupied China ties, risking economic relations ($20 billion annual trade).
Saudi Arabia
For: Secured $600 billion in U.S. investments and $142 billion in arms sales. Hosted Trump’s meeting with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa. Houthi strikes and the Abraham Accords align with Saudi interests.
Against: Saudi Arabia’s CCP-occupied China ties and neutral Russia-Ukraine stance challenge the U.S. alignment. Saudi Arabia’s push for Palestinian statehood halted Abraham Accords talks.
Europe
For: Limited cooperation on Houthi-targeted trade vessels.
Against: Imposed 20% tariffs on EU goods, prompting Italian PM Giorgia Meloni to warn of a trade war. NATO scepticism and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement / WHO strain ties. Berlin backed Trump’s 5% NATO spending demand. The EU launched consultations on countermeasures (e.g., duties on U.S. aircraft, IT equipment).
Qatar
For: Committed $1.2 trillion to U.S., including $96 billion for Boeing aircraft, mediated Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Syria talks.
Against: Pressured to cut Hamas and Iran ties, risking non-NATO ally status.
Qatar’s $400 million Boeing 747 offer for Air Force One accepted by Trump Administration.
CCP-occupied China
For: Signed a tariff deal on May 14, 2025, reducing U.S. tariffs on CCP-occupied China’s goods by 115 percentage points (to 30%) and CCP-occupied China suspending its 34% retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, retaining a 10% tariff. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met CCP-occupied China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Geneva on May 12, 2025, to negotiate.
Against:
Tariff Timeline (2025):
February 1: Executive Order 14195 declared a national emergency over drug trafficking, alleging that CCP-occupied China’s role in opioid networks. Imposed 10% tariffs on all CCP-occupied China imports, effective February 4, to pressure fentanyl trade.
March 4: Raised tariffs to 20%. CCP-occupied China retaliated with 10-15% tariffs on U.S. agricultural, meat, and dairy products, effective March 10.
April 2: Imposed a 34% “reciprocal tariff” on most CCP-occupied China imports. CCP-occupied China responded with a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, effective April 10.
April 5-10: U.S. tariffs increased by 125 percentage points (10% on April 5, 74% on April 9, 41% on April 10), reaching 126.5% average (including 20% fentanyl-related, Section 301 tariffs of 7.5-100%, and others). CCP-occupied China raised tariffs to 84% on April 9 and 125% on April 11, peaking at 147.6% average.
April 11: U.S. clarified sectoral carveouts (e.g., electronics like iPhones, laptops) from reciprocal tariffs, though CCP-occupied China goods remained subject to 20% tariffs.
May 2: Eliminated de minimis exemption for CCP-occupied China and Hong Kong, imposing 120% duties or $100-$200 per package on low-value shipments (e.g., Shein, Temu).
May 12: Executive order reduced de minimis duties to 54%, effective May 14.
May 14: U.S.-CCP-occupied China trade deal reduced U.S. tariffs by 115 percentage points to 30% (retaining 10% baseline, Section 301, and fentanyl tariffs) and CCP-occupied China tariffs to 10% for 90 days. Average U.S. tariffs fell to 51.1% (from 126.5%); CCP-occupied China’s fell to 32.6% (from 147.6%).
Economic Impact: Tariffs raised $37.9 billion in revenue since January 20, 2025, with $63.3 billion in customs duties collected in fiscal year 2025, up $15 billion. Imports from CCP-occupied China fell by $542 billion (16%). U.S. GDP projected to decline by 0.7%, household costs to rise by $1,200-$2,800 annually. Stock markets dropped 4-5% after tariff announcements but rose after the May 14 deal.
Other Actions:
Tech Restrictions: Banned CCP-occupied China’s firms (e.g., Huawei, ZTE) from U.S. 5G infrastructure and restricted U.S. investments in CCP-occupied China’s AI and semiconductor sectors.
Decoupling: Launched “Decouple Now” campaign with $50 billion in incentives to relocate U.S. manufacturing to Mexico and India. Apple increased imports of Indian-made phones.
Sanctions: Sanctioned CCP-occupied China’s officials linked to Uyghur abuses, freezing $10 billion in assets.
South China Sea: Strengthened Quad naval exercises to counter CCP-occupied China’s maritime claims, escalating tensions after a March 2025 near-collision.
Taiwan: Approved $2 billion in arms sales (F-16 jets, missiles), prompting CCP-occupied China’s military drills near Taiwan.
Tibet: Trump issued a statement on March 15, 2025, condemning CCP-occupied China’s “cultural genocide” in Tibet, citing restrictions on Tibetan language, religious practices, and cultural identity. He met the Dalai Lama’s envoy in Washington on April 20, 2025, urging CCP-occupied China to resume dialogue with Tibetan leaders, the first such high-level U.S. engagement since 2019. No Tibet-specific sanctions or trade measures were imposed.
On May 18, 2025, Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanded the immediate release of Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, the 11th Panchen Lama, abducted by CCP-occupied China in 1995 at age six, marking the 30th anniversary of his disappearance. Rubio urged CCP-occupied China to disclose Nyima’s whereabouts and well-being, allow him to return to Tashi Lhunpo Monastery, and permit U.S. officials to meet him in person, citing violations of Tibetan religious freedom.
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman James Risch and Ranking Member Jeanne Shaheen echoed this on May 17, 2025, calling Nyima a symbol of Tibetans’ fight for religious liberty.
The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) reiterated calls for an independent expert to verify Nyima’s status.
Turkey
For: Erdoğan’s rapport aided U.S.-Syria talks; NATO status leveraged. Joined Trump-Sharaa meeting, praising Syria sanctions lift.
Against: Tensions over U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in Syria.
Pakistan
For: Put in efforts for India-Pakistan ceasefire (May 2025); supported $1 billion IMF loan. Exempted $397 million in security assistance from aid cuts in February 2025 to monitor Pakistan’s U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, ensuring their use for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations, not against India, via a Technical Security Team of U.S. contractors.
Against: Pressured to extradite 26/11 terrorists like Hafiz Saeed. IMF loan tied to 11 conditions (fiscal deficit reduction, counterterrorism financing oversight, etc.). “Extreme vetting” targets Pakistanis.
Iran
For: Initiated nuclear talks via Oman (March 2025).
Against: “Maximum pressure” with B-2 bombers, Houthi strikes, and proxy sanctions. Iran criticised Trump’s Syria sanctions lift.
Yemen
Against: Intensified Houthi strikes; terrorist redesignation.
Palestine
Against: Proposed Palestinian resettlement, halted UNRWA funding, endorsed Gaza aid blockade.
Other Countries
Syria: Lifted sanctions and pledged normalisation after Trump met interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Riyadh (May 14, 2025). Trump urged Sharaa to: sign the Abraham Accords; expel foreign terrorists; deport Hamas terrorists to Israel; prevent ISIS resurgence; and manage ISIS detention centres. Sharaa affirmed the 1974 Israel-Syria agreement but did not confirm Abraham Accords participation. Israel opposes sanctions lift, citing Sharaa’s al-Qaeda past, and escalated Syria airstrikes.
Russia: Put in efforts for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks; voted against UN Ukraine resolution; agreed with Putin on peace memorandum.
Ukraine: US-Ukraine deal for reconstruction signed. Efforts for a ceasefire.
Quad (Japan, Australia): Strengthened naval exercises against CCP-occupied China; trade talks with Japan, India.
United Nations
Against: Withdrew from UN Human Rights Council, WHO, climate fund; halted UNRWA funding; rejected UN 2030 goals and gender equality language. Suspended 11% of WTO’s $232 million 2024 budget.
NATO
Members asked to contribute more towards defence expenses.
Specific Issues
Islamic Terrorism: Extradited Tahavvur Rana, arrested Pakistan promoted Khalistani terrorist Amarjeet Singh, struck ISIS in Somalia, redesignated Houthis as terrorists, struck them, truce in effect now.
Appointed Department of Homeland Security vetted two ex-jihadists to an advisory board (March 2025) for religious freedom, facing criticism, but aimed to counter extremism.
Pakistan’s IMF loan and $397 million F-16 aid are tied to counterterrorism oversight. Trump urged Syria’s Sharaa to deport foreign and Hamas terrorists and prevent ISIS resurgence. Gaza resettlement related plans.
Illegal Immigrants, Criminals, Rapists
January 20, 2025, executive order targets “alien” threats. Operation Secure Borders deported 15,000. Including 1,200 Muslims (300 Pakistanis, e.g., Mohammad Asif; 250 Afghans, e.g., Ahmad Zia; 150 Bangladeshis, e.g., Rahim Uddin).
Ended Venezuelan protections (50,000 affected). Total deportations approximately 1,50,000.
Criminals and rapists are hunted down vigorously for deportation.
Hamas Protesters: Arrested 500 students (e.g., 50 at Columbia, including Fatima Hassan) for pro-Hamas protests.
Wokeists
Opposed Diversity Equity Inclusion (DEI) affirmative actions
Opposed Gender related leftist agenda, rejected non-binary frameworks for binary definitions at all levels and took appropriate actions in this context.
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