On Friday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held a meeting with President-elect Donald Trump. Both leaders from the respective countries discussed trade, the border, and fentanyl in light of Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Canada.

Trudeau and Trump had a three-hour dinner at Mar-a-Lago where both held talks on a variety of topics, including defence, NATO, Ukraine, and China, according to two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. They also discussed several pipeline projects, including the Keystone XL pipeline that the Biden administration cancelled and icebreakers. Trudeau arrived in West Palm Beach, Florida, earlier on Friday evening. 

Several Trump’s key officials attended the meeting, including Mike Waltz, his incoming National Security Adviser; Howard Lutnick, his choice for commerce secretary; Doug Burgum, his pick for interior secretary; and David McCormick and Dina Powell, who are respectively the newly elected senator for Pennsylvania and a senior aide from Trump’s first term. Earlier this week, Trump promised to impose more tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. He said the tariffs were needed to protect U.S. borders, which is a key issue for voters in the upcoming election. Trump stated he would add a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada if they didn't take action.

The dinner also included Canadian Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who oversees border security, and Trudeau’s chief of staff, Katie Telford, according to sources familiar with the meeting. Representatives from both sides did not respond to a request for comment outside of regular working hours. Trump's first promise to limit global trade after his election caused market disruption. His warnings, shared on his Truth Social platform, led to a drop in the Canadian dollar. Later that evening, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Trump to discuss border security and trade, according to a government source who spoke anonymously.

Trudeau pointed out that the number of migrants crossing the US-Canada border is very small compared to those coming from Mexico. Recently, Canadian officials have emphasised their close cooperation with the US to address the fentanyl crisis, a harmful synthetic drug causing widespread health issues in the US. According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, the amount of fentanyl confiscated at the Mexican border since early 2022 is approximately 1,000 times more than that seized at the Canadian border.

To allay Trump's fears, Trudeau is still facing domestic pressure to increase defence expenditure and border security. Following a meeting of the premiers and prime minister, Doug Ford, the leader of Ontario, Canada's most populous province, stated that he had been pressuring Trudeau for months to demonstrate that Canada will take steps to allay US security and economic concerns. 

Trudeau was the first leader of the Group of Seven to meet Trump in person since the US election. “The symbolism of Trudeau going down to Palm Beach on bended knee to say ‘Please don’t’ is very, very powerful,” said Fen Hampson, professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa. “The stakes are enormously high and Trudeau has to deliver on this,” Hampson said. “Otherwise, it’s going to be seen by Canadians as a failed mission, because we all know why he’s going down there and it’s not to baste the turkey for Trump.”  

In addition to being the largest external supplier of crude oil to the US, sending millions of barrels per day to refineries in the Midwest and beyond, Canada and the US have one of the greatest bilateral trading partnerships in the world, valued at over $900 billion annually. If Trump fulfils his promise to impose substantial taxes on US imports, economists predict that Mexico and Canada will suffer the worst economic setbacks. 

Trump has focused heavily on using tariffs as part of his economic plan. He has promised to apply them broadly, targeting both U.S. allies and adversaries, to push for trade deals and bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. However, many economists warn that these tariffs could increase prices for consumers, may not generate the expected revenue, and could disrupt trade flows. 

Trump has focused heavily on using tariffs as part of his economic plan. He has promised to apply them broadly, targeting both U.S. allies and adversaries, to push for trade deals and bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. However, many economists warn that these tariffs could increase prices for consumers, may not generate the expected revenue, and could disrupt trade flows. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada could also reignite tensions from Trump's first term when he forced a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The new deal called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), keeps trade between the countries tariff-free in many areas but also introduces new rules for industries like auto manufacturing.