TTV Dhinakaran, the nephew of jailed VK Sasikala had won the by-election in RK Nagar constituency with a huge margin of 40707 votes. This is a historical election as this is the first time in 30 years; an independent had won an assembly constituency in Tamil Nadu. Some people narrow mindedly say that people voted for Dhinakaran by getting money. Even though the distribution of money can’t be denied, its effect is bit exaggerated and it is not right to doubt the mandate of common people. This election should be subjected to in-depth analysis on the factors and narratives that affected the voting pattern.

Presence of cross voting:

In the 2016 elections, DMK received a vote share of 33% when the towering leader Jayalalithaa was the ADMK candidate in RK Nagar constituency. Jayalalithaa won this constituency in 2016 with a vote share of 55%. With the absence of Jayalalithaa, it’s expected that ADMK’s vote share would reduce, which would result in DMK gain. As TTV Dhinakaran is also a sidelined ADMK party member, the chances looked slim for the present ADMK and TTV Dhinakaran to get a combined vote share of 55%, but contrary to the expectations ADMK and the independent Dhinakaran together received a combined vote share of 77% and the grand old party DMK was decimated to 13%. The surprising factor is that DMK had a grand alliance with many other prominent parties like Viduthalai Siruthaigal Katchi, Marumalarchi Dravida Munetra Kazhagam, CPI, CPI(M) and also the Indian national Congress. They didn’t have such an alliance in 2016 and still secured a 33% vote share but now diminished to 13% with such a grand alliance and even lost their deposit. It’s rare to see a party like DMK to lose deposit in Tamilnadu and this arises various questions.

TTV Dhinakaran alone secured a vote share of 50%, on par with Jayalalithaa. He hasn’t even given any great speech to pull voters and also hasn’t conducted any rally to influence voters. DMK had the upper hand in TN politics since the death of Jayalalithaa and there is no anti-DMK wave in Tamilnadu to make them to lose deposit. Considering these factors, we can say that there are high chances of cross voting to have happened from the DMK camp to TTV Dhinakaran. DMK didn’t undergo a vigorous campaign to win the constituency and they have completely underplayed in the campaign. Few of the allies of DMK were never seen in the constituency campaigning for DMK. This had reduced the election from a three front war to a two front war and the motive behind this may be to make TTV Dhinakaran win the election so that he can topple the TN government by pulling few MLAs to his side. Now, TTV Dhinakaran’s victory has created some distortions in the present government and chances for the present government to continue in power looks bleak. As the ultimate motive of both DMK and TTV Dhinakaran is to topple the present government, the chances of cross voting can be very high. DMK working president on the election campaign said “R K Nagar by-poll is a testing ground for TN assembly polls in 2-3 months” and TTV Dhinakaran after his victory said “EPS-OPS government will fall in 3 months”. These two statements from the two leaders justify their common motive and the possibility of cross voting from DMK to TTV Dhinakaran.

Narratives before election:

There is a strong narrative needed to support cross voting and this narrative is engineered by media and social media. As RK Nagar is in part of Chennai city, the role of grand narratives overpowers caste equations and local narratives. Almost everyone has access to social media in an urban constituency like RK Nagar and social media engineers these grand narratives. The grand narrative which was constant in Tamilnadu for past one year is anti-central government narrative and based on this every sub-narrative is built in Tamilnadu. All central government policies are opposed in Tamilnadu and this opposition is created by media and social media by creating false theories about the government policies. All the local central government projects like Methane plant in Neduvasal, ONGC plant in Kathiramangalam, Neutrino research laboratory in Theni were opposed in Tamilnadu. NEET is said to be a provision to sell Tamilnadu medical seats to other states people. These narratives created a grand narrative that central government policies are against Tamilnadu. Thus, hatred is created on central government among the Tamil people having access to Social media. There is a well-organized ecosystem to create such narratives and how this system works is a different topic of discussion.

In such situation, all of those who oppose central government are boasted by social media as protectors of Tamil people and from this grand narrative, all sub-narratives are built. In recent months, the government of Tamilnadu started to develop a very good relationship with central government. This relationship is interpreted by media and social media as surrendering of Tamilnadu government to central government and thus hatred is created on both central and state governments.   

How the narrative changed during IT raids:

There was tremendous hatred on Sasikala family among TN people after the death of Jayalalithaa but due to change in narratives, this hatred started to move towards the state government and central government. This was the time when historical IT raids happened at various places related to Sasikala family. When TTV Dhinakaran was asked about the IT raids, he replied it as a conspiracy by central government to protect the state government. Tamilnadu media and social media took these words and engineered a narrative. TTV Dhinakaran was promoted as a gritty Tamil person with guts to oppose central government.

Here are few excerpts from a news 18 article on TTV Dhinakaran:

“He works quietly in the background to focus on getting what he wants and more importantly, Dinakaran has emerged as the one who has kept team EPS-OPS — despite their BJP support — on their toes with his taunts, threats and pressure tactics.

"He is a mass leader because he has been harassed and targeted time and again, but he still doesn't toe the lines of these central agencies. Look at the others, they are so willing to bow down to the diktats of the outsiders (hinting at the BJP) who want to meddle in the affairs of our state," reasoned a TTV supporter at the RK Nagar counting centre.

Another woman who had come to the counting centre had similar thoughts. "We don't know if he is the true heir to Amma, but he is so jovial all the time, even in the face of adversities," she said. 

Is TTV's victory more of a rejection of the BJP and the EPS and OPS combine, rather than a vote for TTV himself? How did someone, who was until yesterday the 'Mannargudi mafia' (as the family has been infamously known) become the man of the moment, a darling of the masses? 

Dinakaran himself believes this is a referendum on the EPS-OPS-led AIADMK government. "People standing up against the interference of some of the national parties in Tamil Nadu may be one of the factors, but the main reason behind the result is that the people wants this government to lose," he told News18 after the victory.”

This narrative is continuously built on TTV Dhinakaran and the governance of present ADMK is always criticized irrespective of its merits. When DMK underplayed this election, all votes of DMK went towards TTV Dhinakaran because of this narrative and provided him a huge mandate in the election. It’s also surprising to see Thirumavalavan, an ally of DMK saying “The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s attitude even gave room for the assumption that it had a secret understanding with Mr. Dhinakaran. The DMK leaders criticized the leadership of Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam but spared Mr. Dhinakaran during the campaign”. As TTV Dhinakaran had won the election, it is expected that he is going to create a political instability in Tamilnadu government and only time can give results.

Sources:

1. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/r-k-nagar-bypoll-is-a-testing-ground-for-tn-assembly-polls-in-2-3-months-says-stalin/articleshow/62110398.cms
2. http://www.uniindia.com/news/states/eps-ops-government-will-fall-in-3-months-ttv/1086178.html
3. http://www.news18.com/news/politics/understanding-ttv-dinakaran-from-don-to-darling-of-the-masses-1613609.html
4. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/aiadmk-will-rally-behind-dhinakaran-thirumavalavan/article22272374.ece