In the first part of this article, the author talks about The Great Game- India vs China and if India was ready for the Chinese Challenge in its neighborhood. The second part highlighted each country/region across the IOR the Chinese and India moves & counter which is a part of this new “Great Game”. This last part focuses on the countries and their strategies and looking at the debate from their perspective.

CHINA PERSPECTIVE:

Deng Xiaoping prescribed the famous “24 character” strategy in 1990 for China “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership." China today believes that it no longer needs to bide time & hide its capabilities. It considers that it has truly arrived on the world stage as a global superpower. Post 2008 financial crisis China subscribes to the notion of a G-2 world where only the US & China are the true global superpowers. It no longer feels the need to hide its powers which it regularly flaunts to berate & bully its neighbors as & when required. On issue of territorial integrity be it in the South China Sea or on the LAC with India, China takes small steps to change the “status quo” (or “salami slicing” as referred to by India’s Chief of Army staff Bipin Rawat). Unlike a full scale invasion these incidents are not big enough to create an international uproar but over period of time these small steps together invariably change the territorial ownership of the disputed area. MinXin Pei an expert on China has said that “China’s actions have a probing quality to test where the weaknesses are & where the pushback is”. China has invariably changed the status quo in South China Sea but faced resistance from India when tried to move further south on the Dolam Plateau in Bhutan. Beijing’s rise simultaneously has freed it from worrying about any blowback internationally about interfering in the inner working of other countries. It routinely has been seen meddling in internal affairs of other countries as seen in the coup in Zimbabwe in 2017, support for the authoritarian regime in Maldives or helping the anti-India Communist parties capture power in Kathmandu.

China freely uses economic coercion as a tool to punish its opponents for actions they seem detrimental to Chinese interests. An example of this was when South Korea deployed the American THAAD missile interceptor system to counter threat from North Korean missiles. China opposed it as it believed that THAAD undermined its security & to punish South Korea, China shut down nearly all of Lotte’s stores (a Korean company) for fire safety violations & cut number of Chinese tourist visiting South Korea. It is no wonder that China’s ascent to being a strong power is being viewed as a threat by virtually all of its neighbors but shockingly they themselves can’t see why their rise is being viewed with such suspicion & mistrust. China apart from its illogical claims in the South China Sea has been emboldened to make an even more outrageous territorial claim in the Arctic region by calling itself a “near Arctic State”. This is to lay claim on resources in Artic which are slowly being freed up by global warming but any decent student of geography can immediately term it as completely bogus. China home to 1.4 billion people is one of the biggest markets in the world which is yet to be fully tapped by the world’s leading corporations.  Everyone in their eagerness to do business is China is more than happy to agree to China’s demands however egregious it may be: A few examples of this Chinese strong-arming from just two months of 2018 1) Mercedes Benz was forced to apologize for hurting "the feelings" of Chinese people by quoting the Dalai Lama in a post on its Instagram account. 2) Marriot fired an employee handling social media as he “liked” a tweet from a Tibetan activist group. 3) China publicly scolded Delta Airlines for listing Tibet & Taiwan as independent countries.

 The OBOR/BRI initiative is a tactic of gaining a strategic foothold all across Asia/Africa & in the IOR (Indian Ocean Region) to overcome the issues of geography. These projects are helping many under developed countries vastly improve the infrastructure but there are issues with these Chinese loans. These loans given by China usually have strings attached such as requiring the host countries to employ Chinese companies & contractors. This doesn’t lead to big increase in local employment which combined with the massive influx of Chinese workers creates resentment among the local population. All of these loans which originate in Chinese banks are opaque which makes auditing of them next to impossible in a country especially like China. It has been suspected that kickbacks are given to the political elite in the host countries to get them to agree to these loans which may not be at the best terms for the host country. There has been more than one case which has come to light recently where a country has offered a loan by China at more than 2 to 3% above either the market rate or from a competitor. Chief of the Naval Staff of the Indian Navy at the this year’s Raisina dialogue in New Delhi called out China for using unsustainable projects to buy influence in third countries. These loans having no economic sense means that revenue/economic benefit generated is too little. This will end up in the host country falling into the “debt trap” vortex. Chinese lending is equivalent to the predatory lending practices that existed t before the Great Recession where greedy banks & mortgage lenders stiffed subprime borrowers with high interest rates (knowing fully well that many of them will never pay up) & in many cases the borrowers themselves didn’t foresee what they were signing up for.

The creations of these “vassal states” of China have led some to refer to this phenomenon as modern day Chinese neocolonialism similar to the tactics of European powers in Asia & Africa during the 18th & 19th centuries. Today the countries may claim to be free of Chinese influence but once they are heavily in debt will they have any strategic autonomy or will they have to toe the line from Beijing? To complicate matters further China is setting up BRI courts based in China to resolve disputes between China & the host countries which is odd as usually it is a neutral arbiter in a regional or world forum which adjudicates on such disputes. Chinese courts mean that when disputes arise it more than likely that the court will rule in favor of China. The widely publicized case of Hambantota in Sri Lanka has woken up many in these host countries to the danger these so called “sweetheart/no strings attached” deals pose for their financial health & political sovereignty. Bangladesh to its credit recently cancelled a road project when it was found out that bribes were paid local officials & blacklisted the Chinese company from participating in future contracts. On the top of the “debt trap” concerns there is also the issue of Chinese spying as the African Union found out recently. China had funded & built the African Union headquarters as “gift” around five years ago. Recently after noticing that there was a peak in data activity between midnight & 2 am it was found by technicians that data was being transferred secretly to a server in Shanghai unknown to the African Union headquarter employees.

Deng Xiaoping lived through the twin disasters of the Great Leap Forward & the Cultural Revolution where he saw that the founding father Mao Zedong almost brought China to ruin. Post Mao he reformed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) structure including introduction of a two term limit. His idea was that in future the “collective wisdom” of the party elite will guide China & help avoid disasters when power is concentrated in hands of a single man who rules for life. Recently CCP voted for the removal of term limits which means instead of having to step down in 2022 Xi Jinping can now rule forever. He already has his thoughts enshrined in the Constitution (similar to Mao) , has purged all his opponents as part of anti-corruption drive & consolidated power with himself including that of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) becoming undisputedly the most powerful man in China since the time of Mao. His goal is to make China the pre-eminent global power and he is convinced of his own destined role in making that a reality.  There could be several reasons being Xi Jinping staying beyond the two term limit. One he has removed many of the retired party members in the anti-corruption drive who earlier used to be considered as “untouchables” once retired. Now if he retires down the road the next generation of leaders could target him with the same tactics. This fear could force him to stay much longer until all perceived threats have been eliminated.  To reprise an old joke, in a democratic country, an official who is exposed as corrupt will lose power; in an authoritarian regime, an official who loses power will be exposed as corrupt. Two China post 2008 recession to keep the economy growing rapidly borrowed it spent vast sums of money. Some have reported the debt today to be 300% of GDP some of which it has now cleverly passed on the host countries of OBOR/BRI projects. China’s growth is slowing further as it makes the transition from export based economy to a more domestic consumption based economy. This slowing could lead to rise in economic anxiety, not the best prospect for an authoritarian regime whose legitimacy depends partly on the financial prosperity of its people. This fear of a rise in discontent domestically generates a need to keep a lid on domestic opposition. This is reflected in China’s internal security budget which is 20% higher than the budget for external military forces! For the Communist party to survive if the economic pillar crumbles it will have to rely more on the other two pillars of nationalism & authoritarianism. This is already taking place under Xi Jingping in form of a muscular nationalist foreign policy & a crackdown on dissidents with tighter control on speech & increased domestic surveillance. Pursuing an even harder form of nationalism carriers its own risks which reduce your scope for diplomacy with other nations & any military setback would be practically a death knell for the leadership. With Xi Jingping in power potentially indefinitely China could resort to more Dolam type adventurism on the LAC & South China Sea which doesn’t bode well for India & China’s other neighbors. 

There is also the looming issue of “demographic crisis” as another pitfall for China down the road. 36 years of a one-child policy have created distortions in the demographic of Chinese population. Over the last 40 years China brilliantly harnessed the working age population to grow at phenomenal rate but as the population slowly ages the demographic dividends of the previous decades will start to diminish. As China quickly ages the number of Chinese retirees’ increases putting strain on Chinese welfare systems while concurrently the working age population dwindles over time. The Chinese elite aware of this looming demographic crisis know that China has a narrow window in time (probably till 2035) by which to fully cement as no. 1 undisputed superpower in the world.  Xi Jinping wants to stay in power to help navigate this journey with him at the helm as echoed in state controlled mouthpiece Global Times “Beijing needs a strong stable leadership in the “crucial period” between 2020 and 2035, by which time China will be a modern, prosperous state”. The goal of Chinese Communist Party is to become a first world country on par economically with the West by 2035 & for China to achieve all its professed goals by 2049 the centenary of its founding in 1949.

INDIA PERSPECTIVE:

India worked with China on the Copenhagen Accord (Climate Change when it considered India more or less as an equal peer. Since then with the decay of the Western countries post the global recession & it’s continued increase in strength it now considers India to be no longer at its level. On the LAC boundary dispute with India it no longer considers worth expending any energy. The non-demarcated border works to its advantage as it could potentially alter the status quo in future. The stated policy of “America First” under the Trump administration has led to fears among many in Asia about US withdrawing from the world stage, a gap that China is looking to fill gleefully. For countries like Taiwan, Korea & Japan where US is the net security provider it has raised alarms bells since it could leave them exposed in face of Chinese aggression. Chinese entry in the Indian Ocean be it naval deployments or infrastructure projects all over Asia have led to increase in friction as India feels that China is now entering into its sphere of influence. India in the enjoys huge advantage of geography in IOR referred to C Raja Mohan Director at Carnegie India as “Geography as destiny”. This however with Chinese economic prowess is being slowly narrowed over time. Geography still dictates that it would completely unfeasible for China “encircle & squeeze India” but it India needs to take the necessary steps to keep this advantage as big as possible.

Coming to the host countries receiving OBOR the biggest complaint they have for India is that of big promises & little to show for. Take for e.g. the story of a police officer Mandip Shrestha in Nepal who when he joined the force years ago heard about an Indian promise to build a police academy in 1995. Today close to his retirement the academy is yet to be built & he reckons he will retire before it is built.  Regarding the “debt trap” due to the poor infrastructure everyone is eager to jump at chance of development many times overlooking the fact if the project is even viable. “South Asia is on a learning curve. Debt trap is a phenomenon that will not be learnt unless experienced first-hand. Poverty and lack of basic infrastructure in South Asian countries are so acute that they are basically desperate for outside investment and resources, and do not really care what happens a hundred years on,” says Nishchal Nath Pandey, director of the Centre for South Asian Studies. Smaller nations in India’s periphery have played China & India against each other in negotiations to extract the best deal for themselves. That combined with the fact that amount of aid doled out by India can never match that given by the Chinese so eliminating China altogether from the picture is not realistic but lessening the dependence of India’s neighbors on China can certainly be done. India has to step up its engagement with Asia & find ways to speed up delivery.  Harsh Pant, a scholar at Kings’ college says that it is time India puts the “meat to the bones” in term of delivery. If India can show a credible alternative to this Chinese “debt trap” type of investment then one can expect these host countries to push back harder against the predatory Chinese investments.  

Narendra Modi even though he was confined mostly to Gujarat when he came to power had keen sense of foreign policy. At this inauguration it well know that he invited all the SAARC heads of state but an underreported fact is that he also invited the head of Tibetan government in exile & trade representative from Taiwan not worrying about a diplomatic protest from China. He started a “Neighborhood First” policy to develop closer ties with the countries in India’s periphery. Many including former Foreign Secretary & National Security Advisor Shiyam Saran say that India through the ancient times had civilizational linkages with all the countries in the neighborhood with a shared history and economic interdependencies. These old “pathways” between us & the neighborhood are way forward to build stronger relationships with neighbors to move India forward in the sphere of foreign diplomacy. The foreign visits by PM Modi all over the world have attracted criticism from some quarters as being waste of money & it being media spectacle for his party’s political gains. Critics tend to focus on the glitzy events in Madison Square Garden (NY) or Wembley (UK) but forget the long miles accrued on trips to the Central Asian republics (few of which no PM had ever visited) , Seychelles (no PM ever) , Fiji (1^st visit in 33 years) , Australia (28 years), Canada (42 years), etc. The goal was twofold: to increase India’s stature in the world appealing for direct foreign investment in India & connect with India’s vast diaspora across the world.  The goal is to use the energy of the India diaspora which is very well off financially & connected to their local governments in their nations to “bat for India” in foreign capitals to shape their foreign policy. This is a thing that China regularly does but through more coercive means like Confucius institutes which are now gaining attention for undermining the host countries foreign policies.  According to Joseph Nye, an American political scientist, soft power is defined as the ability of an actor to change the behavior of another actor to achieve a favorable end through attraction rather than coercion. Bollywood movies, music & Indian TV shows are popular throughout vast stretches Asia from the Middle East to Japan is an example of India’s soft power.  The celebration of the much derided in media International Yoga day in 2016 was another exhibition of India’s soft power capability. Operation Rahat where India rescued 5,000 citizens of India & 40 countries from war torn Yemen was feather in the cap in the realm of soft power. A month into his tenure Modi asked ISRO to launch a satellite catering to just the SAARC nations as a gift from India. When a new power rises it usually causes alarm & suspicion in its neighbors be it China or India but what matters is the way you go about it. China & India have both dreams of becoming world superpowers in the 21^st century. Where India vastly differs from China is that these soft power measures which show the gentler side of India. India unlike China has no nefarious designs to grab other’s territory & its rise is seen as benevolent unlike China.

 Modi wanted to establish close relations with Israel to harness their cooperation for not only anti-terrorism but also agriculture & technology. He did want to visit Israel which curiously no PM had ever visited probably out of fear of its impact of domestic politics in India. But keeping in mind to not adversely affect the Indian interests in the Arab world (where 7 million expatriates work) he visited all the Arab nations before setting off for Israel. Modi doesn’t keep himself beholden to past traditions. He de-hyphenated Israel Palestine by not visiting both Israel & Palestine at same time which was the norm earlier.  A recent feather in the cap of this government was the start of direct flights between India & Israel flying over Saudi airspace which is the first time ever the Saudis are allowing flights to Israel over their airspace. This wouldn’t have been possible unless India had good relations with both Israel & Saudi Arabia. When the Rohingya crisis erupted last year India’s response was pretty muted compared to many other countries. This was interpreted by many in the media as the anti-minority stand by a majoritarian government. This was a gross over simplification when the truth is that India has direct stake in Myanmar with cross border connectivity projects & eliminating North East militant “safe havens” in Myanmar. India is concerned about human rights & can privately covey concerns but cannot go public with stringent criticism which offends Myanmar. Many forget that in 1988 when the military seized power in then Burma, India was among its most vocal critics. Slowly realizing that the ruling military was growing closer to China, around 1993 India was forced to reverse course to again engage the Burmese government. Indian government didn’t want to criticize the Myanmar government thus driving them into the Chinese arms like 30 years ago. Since Pakistan was not co-operating with India it was negating the usefulness of the SAARC forum. Then the government then decided to instead push the regional cooperation & connectivity agenda instead through the forum called BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) which includes Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand (which excludes crucially Pakistan from the mix).

One striking feature of India’s foreign policy since Independence through administrations on all sides of the political spectrum was to strive for strategic autonomy. Aparna Pande, Director at Hudson Institute in her book From Chanakya to Modi: The Evolution of India’s Foreign Policy says that “At core of India’s foreign policy lies a desire for autonomy in decision making resulting from the impact of British colonial rule when the autonomy didn’t exist”. The policy of Non Alignment which started under PM Nehru is derived from this thought of strategic autonomy. India didn’t want to join any of the Cold War blocks or military alliances & be beholden to the superpowers in its decision making & hence decided to remain nonaligned.  During the UPA tenure (2004-14) when it came time to the US Indian nuclear deal or LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) with US armed forces the Left parties as expected opposed it but surprisingly so did many in the Congress party who wanted no part in passing a deal that would move India closer to the US. It was perplexing that some in the Congress party were still clinging to the obsolete concept of non-alignment (which was carried over from Nehru to successive Congress led governments in New Delhi) & couldn’t recognize the difference between strategic autonomy & non-alignment.  They considered non-alignment to be sacrosanct & inviolable without giving much thought about the implications of these deals on India’s strategic autonomy which there were none. PM Manmohan Singh to his credit stood firm in face of opposition to get the US India nuclear deal passed but failed to pass LEMOA during the UPA years. Modi no longer constrained by this old school thought of being perfectly non-aligned, understood that LEMOA doesn’t lessen India’s strategic autonomy & pushed to have it signed in 2015. This agreement LEMOA was to increase logistics cooperation with US was in India’s best interests especially at a time when China is rising rapidly.

In India more often than not the party in power in New Delhi sends their semi-retired politicians to become Governors (a ceremonial post with hardly any powers) of various states & union territories across the country. This government last year in a break from the norm appointed two non-political appointees in state & union territory linked to national security. Arunachal Pradesh where the Army needs to be constantly vigilant for Chinese transgression due to border dispute with China got army man Brigadier B.D. Mishra, a veteran of 62, 65 & 71 wars & former NSG group commander as governor of Arunachal Pradesh. Andaman & Nicobar Islands are close to the shipping lanes in IOR & the Malacca Strait where former Chief of Naval Staff Admiral D.K. Joshi was appointed as L Lieutenant Governor for Andaman & Nicobar Islands keeping in mind the crucial role the Navy plays in keeping a vigil on the Chinese naval activity in the IOR.  A decade ago Shivshankar Menon (Former Indian Foreign Secretary & National Security Advisor) remarked that for every Indian there were 7 Chinese diplomats & even if we work as efficiently as them we can never match their efforts. When the new government in May 2014 was sworn in Indian Foreign Service (IFS) had 770 officers which the present government has decided to double the strength to 1,500. To increase Indian engagement in Africa where China has already established a significant presence diplomatically the cabinet recently approved opening of 18 new missions. The current government has energized Indian foreign policy bureaucracy which had become listless during past few years. Aparna Pande, Director at Hudson Institute, Harsh Pant & many foreign policy experts says that Modi has brought activism to the foreign policy which was missing for some time.

Soft power as explained earlier is necessary but it does have its limitations. Dangal the super hit wrestling film made in India which earned $300 million in China is held up as an example of soft Indian power in China. This does create goodwill for Indian people in the minds of the Chinese but in the end it is not going to change China’s behavior towards India. On the other hand being wholly dependent of hard power like China is also not desirable as it creates tension & stress in relationship with other nations. The best approach is when both can be skillfully used together.  Hence India has to also with all the soft power initiatives keep working on improving its military strength/hard power.

Like the North East, the Andaman & Nicobar Islands have been vastly neglected by India over the years. India belatedly at the turn of the last century started realizing the strategic importance of these islands due to its location near the shipping lanes in IOR & close proximity to the western entrance of the Malacca Straits (approx. 100 nautical miles away). Jeff Smith, author of “Cold Peace: China-India Rivalry in the 21st Century” was quoted as saying that “India was finally realizing the Andaman’s were a strategic goldmine”. To improve co-operation between the three armed forces in this region India’s first tri services command was established in this region in 2001. India currently has old Dornier-228 aircraft & Mi-17 helicopters for surveillance of the areas around Andaman & Nicobar Islands. India has three air force bases in the region at Port Blair, Car Nicobar & Campbell Bay at southernmost point in the island chain. India has deployed a couple of the latest Poseidon P-8i aircrafts which are designed for long range surveillance & reconnaissance plus have anti-submarine & anti surface warfare capabilities. These planes which have been nicknamed as “submarine killers” can be used to monitor both Chinese submarines & surface ships in the Andaman Sea, IOR & Bay of Bengal. They currently fly from a base in Tamil Nadu to Port Blair & deploy from Port Blair. Currently efforts are underway to extend the runways on Car Nicobar & Campbell Bay so the P-8i can fly to these locations instead of Port Blair which can then extend their search radius southwards covering a greater footprint in the Indian Ocean. These longer runways should also allow heavy lift aircraft like Lockheed C-130 to land & take off from these islands improving the transport capability to these remote locations. In 2013 Air Force proposed eventually basing a squadron of India’s Sukhoi Su-30MKI in the Andaman’s. This would greatly improve India’s aerial force projection in the Malacca Strait & IOR. Both this & Navy’s desire of establishing a submarine base in Andaman’s remain a pipe dream for now.

For China to enter the Indian Ocean there are three narrow straits: Malacca Strait, Sunda Strait & Lombok Strait. The 25m & 20m depths of the Malacca & Sunda Straits would be too shallow for heavy naval ships. Submarines would be prevented from submerging in these shallow straits making their detection easy. This would force them to take the longer route through the much deeper 250m Lombok Strait. These chokepoints make India’s job to monitor Chincese naval activity a bit easier by narrowing the search areas for ingress & egress into the India Ocean. India has claimed to have sufficient satellite + aerial reconnaissance capabilities (from Andaman) such that no Chinese naval activity happens without its knowledge. These long travel distances from mainland China through the narrow straits to enter Indian Ocean are one of the reasons that China is very keen to establish bases in the Indian Ocean Region. By establishing bases in the IOR itself it can considerably shorten its response time in times of crisis.

Over the past few decades China has massively improved the infrastructure such as roads & railways in the Tibetan Plateau Region vastly improving connectivity not only between mainland China & Tibet but also connectivity right upto the LAC. India has made the right noises about developing the infrastructure on its side of the border which is in comparison much poorer compared to the Chinese but execution & delivery has left a lot to be desired. Union Minister for Roads & Transport Nitin Gadkari in 2015 stressed that developing border roads & infrastructure in the North East & Border areas is Government’s priority. There could possibly have been some uptick in the speed of development but one has yet to see any sea change in rate of progress in work completed.

India’s defense spending for 2018-19 has fallen to 1.58% of GDP the lowest since the 62 war with China. Defense expenditure as per some estimates still accounts for 12% of government’s budget but much of the money is now taken up by pensions & wages.  A few days ago the Indian Army & Air force sounded out a major alarm on a major money crunch facing them where they couldn’t pay for new weapon purchases. The government has to find creative ways to find more money if India wants to not fall too far behind in the arms race with China & Pakistan. Defense equipment procurement is another mess which this government has not been able to move forward. Contracts take forever to be negotiated & when finalized get bogged down in controversies whether real or not, massively delaying much needed essential supplies for the armed forces. When weapons need to be ordered in emergency situations the purchases are made at exorbitant prices driving a big hole in the budget. Due to the conflicts with neighbors being fought mainly on the land & in the air the Indian Army & Air Force commands most of the money in the budget compared to the Navy. With the importance of countering the Chinese Navy in the IOR the government has to allocate more to the Navy vs before to ensure Indian dominance in the IOR is not diminished.

The buildup of Chinese ports & bases all over IOR has vastly improved its capability in the IOR. To counter this India has to expand beyond bases in just the India subcontinent. Modi government has been able to crucially negotiate agreements for bases in Oman (Duqm Port), Seychelles (Assumption Island) & Mauritius (Akalega Island). Unfortunately the Assumption Island deal is now being blocked by the opposition party in Seychelles from being ratified in parliament.  During visit of the just concluded French President Emmanuel Macron visit to India both signed a maritime cooperation agreement which opens access to India of French ports not only in IOR Reunion & Mayotte but also crucially in the Pacific Ocean (French Polynesia & New Caledonia).

OVERALL STATE OF THE GREAT GAME IN THE INDIA OCEAN REGION

Orange colored ports are the Chinese ports: Maldives, Hambantota (SL), Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), Gwadar Pakistan & their 1^st overseas military base in Djibouti

Blue colored ports are Indian ports in Mumbai (Western Naval Command), Vizag (Eastern Naval Command), Kochi (Southern Naval Command), Karwar (Karnataka) Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Naval Command). Chabahar (Iran) port is operational while other overseas ports to be developed in Duqm (Oman) & Seychelles & Mauritius.

Yellow colored ports are from 3^rd party countries. India recently gained access to the French ports of Mayotte & Reunion through signing of the maritime security agreement. Diego Garcia is operated by US (on a lease from UK)

FUTURE PERSPECTIVE:

There is an ancient Chinese saying that “one mountain cannot support two tigers”. Today China considers itself to be the biggest tiger of them all in Asia & no longer consider India a worthy equal. This fact that China hasn’t fought a war since 1979 (with Vietnam) lead some to doubt the overall capability of Chinese military but you definitely don’t want to test her resolve. Many military analysts believe that today India has enough military deterrence to hold off the Chinese in a war. But China is rapidly modernizing in terms of adding all types of military hardware. India due to lack of money & resources can’t match up in terms of buying ship for ship & tank for tank. India however needs to add enough military capacity that the asymmetry in military power vs China doesn’t rise to a level where there is no fear in the Chinese minds for the Indian military. The Quad is a “hedge” by various countries against China’s rise but this is not a military alliance where other countries will come to aid of India in event of war with China. So India is dependent solely on her capability for her defense. India can however welcome more nations to the Quad as a growing movement against China. UK, France & New Zealand have recently expressed interest in joining it.  Chinese fears have driven up participation in MILAN bi-annual naval exercises from just 4 a couple of decades ago to 16 today. The agreements for the bases across the IOR in Oman, Seychelles & Mauritius have to be operationalized quickly by India otherwise they might be seen nothing more than empty boasts which amounted to nothing for India’s security. Defense inspite of good intentions by the current government has not been able to change the logjam around defense procurement, modernization & budget issues. If India continues to struggle with modernization of military due to scandals, delays & beauacratic nightmares, it risks further decay to the capability of the Indian armed forces where there could be a repeat of the humiliating 1962 defeat at hands of the Chinese military.

Today China’s economy is 5x that of India, a fact they were constantly reminding India in a stream of persistent verbal threats during the Dolam standoff last year. As seen by China’s rise, rising economic prosperity increases your political clout in the realm of foreign policy. A failure to growth at high rates for India means China would pull away even more from India skewing the power ratio even further to India’s detriment. India needs to grow 8 to 10% to close the gap between both countries. This helps improve India’s standing not only in terms of economic clout but also in terms of projecting both soft & hard power. India can’t aspire to be a regional powerhouse without being an economic power. Aparna Pande says “India’s economy has tremendous potential & there is huge demographic dividend which is waiting to be harnessed. This government has a once in lifetime opportunity to build on this by harnessing Indian & global corporate sectors to spur Indian economic “. Modi knows about this link between economic growth & power projection. As India’s economy closes gap with China’s it should give it more leverage in negotiating with China.

Many have argued for lesser political & economic engagement (Baba Ramdev called for a boycott of Chinese goods during Dolam crisis) with China as they have been hostile towards India. China is not a tiny country that India can boycott or avoid engagement with. It is the biggest country in Asia & the 2^nd largest economy in the world. In today’s interconnected world India has to find ways how it can improve trade to its benefit with China. On the political front India has to engage in skillful diplomacy where they draw red lines on the issues affecting us like NSG membership, declaring Masood Azhar as a terrorist, etc. while trying to find common interests. India has no choice but diplomacy to ensure Dolam type crisis don’t arise & negotiate new modus vivendi used to resolve future crises should they again arise in future. Since China is much bigger & powerful than us sometimes India might have to strategically back down once in a while like with the recent note from Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale for government officials not to attend events hosted by Dalai Lama. There was a lot I might needless anger with some calling that India had bowed down meekly in face of Chinese aggression. As correctly noted by Sreemoy Talukdar editor at FirstPost that “foreign policy with a hegemonic adversary calls for tact”. It is not about chest thumping all the time showing your prowess but once in a while you have to be diplomatic especially when dealing with a bigger power like China. Pakistan might be the biggest irritant in the news regularly but one cannot take their eye of the bigger challenge China. The unhealthy obsession with Pakistan in many news media needs to be refocused instead on relations with China. One has to remember that in India while there might confusion on best approach to deal with China same issue exists in China.  Manoj Joshi a fellow with the Observer Research Foundation speculates that there is similar confusion in China also towards how to deal with India. Unlike the smaller nations in ASEAN they can’t berate, bribe or bully India. They also worry that the harder they push India they drive India into aligning closer with their other rival USA.

In terms of the foreign policy realm I wanted to look at the comprehensive view Indian foreign policy especially in the Indian Ocean Region. The purpose of this article was not to be a cheerleader for Modi & say that Modi is Midas & everything he has touched in foreign policy has turned to gold. On the other hand I also wanted dispel the misconception in minds of many that Indian foreign policy over the past few years been a complete disaster. No doubt massive challenges remain in dealing with the Chinese but there has been quite a bit of “doomsday” news coverage regarding China capabilities vis a vis Indian capabilities.  The goal was to give a realistic picture of the overall foreign policy of the past few years including those under the Modi government. The more assertive foreign policy under this government versus the previous regime has seen a lot more plusses than negatives. There have been doubt some failures on foreign policy such as Nepal & Maldives but the increased engagement around the neighborhood has brought mostly encouraging results for India. But this is a welcome change from the days of the previous regime which was mostly passive in dealing with the Chinese even to the point of calling one of the Chinese incursions into India territory in 2013 as “acne on the face” China has noted these moves by this government over past few years with great interest & there is some acknowledgement in Beijing that they are starting to view India as a threat. For India a heavy challenge remains on following through on the countless projects & initiatives both in India & in the neighborhood. This is going to be a marathon not a sprint in what could be a never ending race with powerful adversary like China. Nitin Gokhale has use the following phrase for the defense sector under the present regime “Good Start, Much to do”. I would like to use the same exact phrase for foreign policy under the current Modi government: It has been a good start but lot of hard work still needs to be done. China is so far ahead in the game that any slip up could be potentially disastrous for India. I shall compare it to a scenario in cricket which most people can relate to easily. Consider a case where India is playing a Test Match in Australia & is chasing 400 on a tricky 5^th day wicket. India has had a good start & is 50/0 but is far away from the target where any slip up in concentration even for short time can be fatal. Reaching the target is going to be a tough climb which will require lot of skill & grit over the entire day’s play.