The announcement from the Indian government on the decision to stop the flow of India’s share of water from Indus water tributaries to Pakistan had triggered confusion among many people as they started to think that government is stopping entire Indus water from flowing into Pakistan, which is not true. The tweets of Nitin Gadkari were very clear on this issue and we can get it from the words “to stop our share of water”, from which it is understandable that our share of water that was going to Pakistan is going to be stopped. Pakistan’s share of water will reach them undisturbed and uninterrupted without any change.

Before understanding the decision of government, the core of the Indus water treaty which was signed between India and Pakistan during 1960 brokered by the World Bank should be understood.

The core of the treaty is that Eastern tributaries of the Indus river, Beas, Raavi and Sutlej can be completely used by India and the western rivers, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab should be uninterruptedly given to Pakistan. India can use the water of western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like Irrigation and electricity and India haven’t utilized this provision given by the India water treaty to its full extent till now.

Due to lack in dam and storage facilities to share our excess water, we are sending our excess water to Pakistan for the past 59 years since the treaty was signed. Thus, instead of diverting our excess water to water scarce districts, we are allowing it to Pakistan, the country which was launching terror attacks on India through militants. No excuse or clarification from the past Indian governments can be sufficient to justify this. After the Uri attack in 2016, the Modi government decided to rectify this mistake and thus started storage and dam projects in the river basins, which are all in different stages of construction. Now after the Pulwama attack, the government announced these projects of UJH storage project, Dam construction at Shahpur-Kandi on Ravi River as national projects and hence these projects will be fast-tracked to completion after which the flow of excess water from our share to Pakistan will be restricted. This is the crux of the announcement made by the government on stopping India’s water share to Pakistan.

The government is also working to start power projects in the western river and thus utilizing the provisions given by the Indus water treaty on the western rivers and Pakistan also had raised its objections on one such project, the Ratle Hydro Energy Project and this dispute between India and Pakistan is now under the World Bank.

There is a bigger question that should also be addressed. Can the treaty be cancelled by India completely and what are all the provisions regarding it?

The treaty can’t be terminated directly by Modi government like many suggestions in social media after the Pulwama attack as it needs mutual consent from both the countries for termination but a provision is present in the Vienna convention on the law of treaties 1969 for termination. According to Vienna convention, if there is a fundamental change in the circumstances between India and Pakistan, India can cancel the treaty unilaterally. India can use this provision and mention Pakistan’s involvement in terror activities as fundamental change in circumstances to terminate the treaty permanently but India should be ready to face geopolitical consequences and risks in doing so.

This termination may also be subjected to judicial review in international court of justice. Both Indus and Brahmaputra originate from Tibet in China and we should be careful about the games that they may play especially using Brahmaputra. Moreover, unilateral termination of treaty using Vienna convention should be done only in extreme conditions. India not using the Vienna convention for treaty termination may come as a hurdle for us while signing treaties in future especially with China, if a case arises to have a river treaty with China on Brahmaputra in upcoming decades.