Close to two months long election exercise in the world’s largest democracy came to an end with the declaration of results for the 18^th Lok Sabha Elections. Ending the three decades-long history of coalition governments, Narendra Modi-led government romped home two back-to-back landslide victories. Setting a precedent of effortlessly clinching decisive mandates, with the slogan of ‘abki baar 400 paar” from the floor of the Parliament, PM Modi had set an insurmountable target. Despite PM Modi’s quick rejoinder to the slogan being coined by the public to bring back his government, the benchmark exuded a dash of hubris. It raised the level of expectations.

Given the track record of Modi as an electoral juggernaut, capable of churning huge electoral mandates both as Chief Minister of Gujarat and Prime Minister of the country, people believed in the existence of an undercurrent in favour of BJP. The first major impediment for any elected government is an undercurrent of anti-incumbency. Setting eyes for a third term, the ambitious target of 400, hamstrung the party’s quintessential exercise of assessing the same and counter it. This (un)calculated indifference has turned out to be its nemesis. Known to be objective and aflush with an army of grassroots workers, the BJP paid a heavy price by not having its ears to the ground.

Messaging is the nucleus of campaigning. Considered an election-winning machine, no party has excelled in this art like the BJP. Rightly so, brandishing the long list of initiatives and beneficiaries of the decade-long Modi government with elan, the BJP leaders and spokespersons put the party at the forefront in the pitched electoral battle. Effectively rebutting the opposition tirades with stats, the BJP had successfully created an impression of overwhelming public acceptability which appeared to have overcome the inevitable incumbency factor as well.

For reasons better (un)known, even the exit polls approvingly bolstered the BJP’s confidence in a thumping mandate. Inexorably this created an impression of a certain reinstatement of the Modi government. This compelling narrative set a complacency in voters in certain areas. An unwarranted tangential corollary it spurred was the enfeeblement of the opposition.

Unlike the 2019 Pulwama attack when the overarching territorial security concerns forced the people to vote in large numbers, the absence of major disconcerting issues turned the democratic exercise into a mundane affair for the electorate.

Clearly, in 2024, the pan-Indian perspective hardly mattered. The voter was more concerned about nagging local issues which included community representation, social justice etc. The varied voting patterns and the sweeping electoral mandate in certain states are indicative of the same. While the BJP managed to make fresh forays into newer territories (Kerala, which sent its first elected BJP MP) and emerged as the political alternative in Odisha, the party was punished for sidelining certain communities in UP, Rajasthan and Haryana. Quick political lollipops to turncoats and preferential treatment to the new entrants over party loyalists sowed disaffection in ranks. In certain states, RSS distanced itself from the BJP campaign. BJP’s brazen politicking to decimate opposition in Maharashtra was meted with repugnance and total rejection in the state.

BJP’s oversight enveloped by an aura of overbearing achievement and indifference to the brewing discontent, especially in its erstwhile strong bastion of Uttar Pradesh, crippled the party’s electoral fortunes. To its credit, during the decade-long Modi government, it performed exceptionally well in terms of poverty alleviation. A whopping 250 million people escaped multi-dimensional poverty. This made a huge difference in terms of economic equality.

The target of 400 seats turned out to be a double-edged sword as opposition successfully used it to stoke anxieties about the constitution and reservations. Fake videos reinforcing this disinformation have indeed forced Modi himself to publicly reassure the party’s commitment to caste-based reservations.

The mandate of 240 seats for Modi after ten years of rule is commendable considering the incumbency, foreign interference and insidious narrative peddling by the combined opposition. People’s trust in Modi and his deliverance abilities as Prime Minister are still high. Though BJP is short of the majority on its own, with the NDA on its own crossing the magical  number, Narendra Modi shall take oath as the Prime Minister for the third time of a majority government. The only other person to achieve this feat in independent India was Jawaharlal Nehru.

But the election results came as a jolt to the BJP given its high benchmark. It shattered the BJP’s self-aggrandised triumphalism and Modi’s electoral invincibility.  It delivered a grim reality check to the largest political party in the world and raised doubts about the certitude of the exit polls. Riding high on the electoral optimism, the markets which traded high suffered a crash on the Black Tuesday.

Absolute majority conferred on the political dispensation a rare luxury of dissension-free decision-making. This enabled the BJP government to steamroll transformative reforms, reverse monumental blunders like Article 370 and expedient economic engines of growth with quick interventions. Modi 3.0 will be deprived of this luxury. The pace of decision-making will take a hit. The political leeway will be a little constricted. Modi will now have to work in coordination with his alliance partners.

The mandate isn’t certainly against Modi or the BJP perse. Nor has it favoured the opposing INDI bloc. But people have reigned the free will of the BJP government. The task now is to run the government taking the coalition partners in stride. After bidding farewell to an era of coalition government, the Modi government has to attune itself now to working under the ambit of coalition dharma. Being an assertive leader, the encumbrances of coalition politics can hardly be a hurdle to his audacious style of functioning.

India’s rise has been rather inconvenient for several adversaries and frenemies who covertly ran operations to dent the political stability. Political weaknesses are often exploited by countries geopolitically to leverage their manoeuvrability. India firm multipolar stance against the odds will be increasingly put to test now. The only way, to counter them is to make the country economically strong. So, the task is cut out for Modi 3.0- a focus on expediting India’s growth story and instilling pride in civilisational identity. The twin pronged steady economic growth coupled with self-assuredness can alone help India to subdue domestic discontent and wade through the geopolitical maze.

Image source: Mint