The 2018 midterms did produce a divergent election as predicted by many. The Democratic Party retook the House in what one can characterize as a “Blue wave”. They are on track to have a net gain of +38 seats. With the mail in ballots still being calculated in few close races in California (which usually lean towards Democrats) a couple more close seats could shift to them plus possibly one other seat in Maine. This can very well push the Democrat gains all the way up to 41 seats. This would make it the biggest net gain for the Democrats in the House since the infamous Watergate scandal in the mid 70’s.

On the other hand in the Senate, Republicans are poised to have a net gain of 2 seats from the Democrats. The losses for 4 sitting Democratic senators of the non-presidential party in a midterm would be the highest number since eight Republican incumbents lost in 1934. By flipping the Nevada Senate seat & the Arizona seat (based on current leads) from the Republicans, Democrats have managed to lower the damage to just 2 net losses.

The results show the divergent nature of the country as such: As I had written about few days ago Democrats were poised to pick up a lot of seats in suburban districts in the House while in the Senate where most of the elections were in red Republican states the Republicans soundly trounced many of the incumbent Democrat senators. The Republicans’ loss of majority in the House exposed to a certain extent the so called “safety” provided by gerrymandering in the beginning of this decade. Several seats which Republicans drew to be “safe” few years ago in the outskirts of big cities were lost due to the loss of support among the high income college-educated whites which were once the bedrock of Republicans in the urban areas.

There were 25 House districts where in 2016 Clinton got more votes than Trump & which were won by Republicans. Republicans were only able to hold on to 5/25 of such seats with 20 seats being lost in the “Blue wave”. Similarly the vast majority of the Obama-Trump districts (which crossed over from voting for Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016) & Romney-Clinton districts (which crossed over from voting for Romney in 2012 to Clinton in 2016) went towards the Democrats helping them recapture the House.

The Democrats also did very well with women & saw one of the widest gender gap in modern political history (23 point gap) which was +19 for Democrats among women vs +4 for Republicans among men. This was the year of the “angry college educated women voter” as Dave Wasserman had referred to before the election. After losing the vote among white women by 12 points to the Republicans Democrats this year evened to 0 (i.e. no gap) which would be a huge shift. Urban voters backed Democrats 65 percent to 32 percent for Republicans while rural voters backed Republicans 56 percent to 42 percent for Democrats while Suburban voters split roughly evenly.

Coming to the Senate where the Democrats were playing defense. These seats were in states many of which Trump won by big margins in 2016. The incumbent Democrat Senators in some of these races were blown away by their Republican challengers (Claire McCaskill in Missouri lost by 5%, Joe Donnelly lost by 7.5% in Indiana & Heidi Heitkamp lost by a whopping 11% in North Dakota). Republicans will also be encouraged that in spite of the massive Democratic efforts they will able to eke out a narrow victory in Florida a crucial swing state in presidential elections. These results show that Republicans in spite of the momentum & money advantage on the Democrats side they were able to mobilize their base to come to vote. Trump was able to win the swing states in 2016 by massively boosting the rural turnout to overcome the advantage the Democrats have in the cities. Similar to 2016 the turnout was healthy in the deep red areas which should bode well for the Republicans & Trump going forward. The future looks ominous for the Democrats in the Senate in the deep red states as Trump has cornered the non-urban vote in those states. Even if they manage to win back the White House in 2020 or in 2024 they are looking at a massive disadvantage competing in these red states.

LOOKING FORWARD TO 2020

Democrats have to be careful not to extrapolate their big win in the House to a certain defeat for Trump in 2020. Studies have shown that midterm results have no correlation with re-election probability of a sitting president. One has to look not very far back into history where Obama after suffering one of the heaviest midterm defeats in 2010 where Democrats lost an astounding 63 seats in the House was comfortable reelected in 2012.

Looking at the electoral map from 2016, Trump won 306 electoral in the Electoral College including managing to flip 6 states that Obama won in 2012: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

With the battle lines hardening among the polarized electorate it would be unlikely to see massive swings of vote% from 2016 to 2020. From the 2016 election let’s consider the states where the margin of victory for either side was <5%.

STATES won by Clinton by <5% margin in 2016:

1. New Hampshire (0.37%)
2. Minnesota (1.52%)
3. Nevada (2.42%)
4. Maine (2.96%)
5. Colorado (4.91%)

STATES won by Trump won by <5% margin in 2016:

1. Michigan (0.22%)
2. Pennsylvania (0.72%).
3. Wisconsin (0.76%)
4. Florida (1.2%)
5. Arizona (3.55%)
6. North Carolina (3.66%)

Adding that to the list of states that Trump flipped in 2016 of Iowa & Ohio that gives in theory 13 battle ground states which are in seen in grey color in following image. One needs to get to 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

The obvious goal for Trump would be to defend the 6 states that he flipped in 2016 at all costs. One of the ways to defend against the potential loss of these states would be for Trump to go on the offense & try to snatch away states that Clinton won marginally in 2016.

New Hampshire was won by Clinton by just 0.37% margin. This state has been won with very small margins usually. The swing status of this state can be seen from results this year where the incumbent Republican governor Sununu won comfortably by 6% margin but in the House the Democrats got 11% more votes. Interestingly New Hampshire has not voted for a Republican in a presidential election since George W. Bush in 2000.

Nevada has been slowly drifting towards the Democrats over the years. This would be a reach for the Republicans who have been losing ground. This is evident by the fact that this year the Republicans lost both the Governor’s & Senate races by 4 & 5% margins & the overall vote in the House seats by also 5%.

Minnesota in 2016 really came close to switching over along with other Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania & Michigan but barely managed to stay in the Democrat’s hands. However this year Democrats won the Governor’s race, both Senate seats & the overall vote in the House seats by double digits which makes it next to impossible to be flipped to the Republicans.

Colorado is another hard pickup for Trump like Nevada like Nevada. Republicans lost both the Governor’s & House overall vote by just under 10%. Actually the Democrats are actually looking to oust incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner in 2020.

Maine is an interesting case as Trump managed to win one of the districts in Maine in 2016 & hence was able to carry one the state’s 4 electoral votes (Maine & Nebraska don’t have a winner takes all system of awarding electoral votes like other states). Trump could at most win 1 out of the 4 electoral votes like he did in 2016 but improving is possible given the fact that it is state with one of the highest % of whites but it would be unlikely.

Trump’s rhetoric & outbursts make it difficult to foresee him to expand his base beyond what he already has. The goal for him would be to maximize the turnout among his diehard supporters in the states that he won in 2016 to counter any Democratic surge. This election has shown that there is no waning of support for Trump in the solidly red areas across the country.

Coming to the states Trump carried in 2016 we can remove some obvious ones & some not so obvious ones as being not possible to be flipped to the Democrats column.

Ohio went for Obama twice in 2008 & 2012. Since then it has steadily drifted towards the Republicans. Trump won the state by a handsome 8% margin. Except the incumbent Democratic senator Sherrod Brown winning this year, Democrats have mostly drawn a blank over the past few years. They even failed to pick up any new seats in the suburbs in Ohio. A swing state just a few cycles ago Ohio is now firmly in the Republican control. This year Republicans won the overall vote in the House seats & Governor Race 4-5% margin. This state with its current situation appears as pipe dream for Democrats in 2020.

Iowa a state which flipped from Obama to Trump is curious case. After being a swing state for many years it swung hard to the right as seen by 9.4% margin of victory for Trump in 2016. However this year 3 of the 4 House districts were won by Democrats including 2 flips & Democrats did win the overall votes in the House races by 3.77%. However in the Governor’s race held this year the Republican won by a small 3% margin. This might make it appear that Iowa could be in play but the losses for the Democrats could be result of anger against incumbent Republicans. Not many analysts consider as a tossup state but rather that it leans slightly towards Republicans.

Now putting all the slightly leaning Democratic & Republican states out of the way we get to the map below with 232 electoral votes for Democrats vs 205 for Republicans with 6 states left.

For years some Democrats are enchanted by a “southern strategy” of flipping the southern states which are growing more diverse/ non-white in terms of race, income & education. They feel that with their hold over the Midwestern states (which were once the bedrock of Democratic support) is crumbling due to economic & demographic factors. Their plan involves flipping some of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Florida & North Carolina referred to as the “Sun Belt”. However the Democrats are in a sort of a dilemma where the “Rust Belt” states are moving away from them while the “Sun Belt” are not moving fast enough towards them. This conundrum of “Rust Belt” vs “Sun Belt” is a tricky one for the Democrats. As of today the probability of flipping & winning the “Rust Belt” is much higher than the “Sun Belt”. It could take few cycles for “Sun Belt strategy” to bear fruit & their best path to win in 2020 is through the “Rust Belt”.

SUN BELT STATES

Arizona with its increasing Latino population has been another favorite target of the Democrats since the last few election cycles. They seemed to have finally broken through this year with the Democratic candidate for Senate Sinema holding a tiny lead over the Republican candidate McSally. Also the Democrats in overall votes in the House races are roughly equal to the Republicans. However one has to note that incumbent Republican Governor Ducey got reelected with a crushing 16% margin of victory. The narrow win in Senate could very well have been caused due to the fact that this was an open seat vacant after passing away of Senator John McCain. The fear is that encouraged with this win Democrats with throw a ton of money & resources here versus using it elsewhere in 2020 & might not have much to show for if they fail to win here. Only the future will tell if the 2018 results for the Democrats were an outlier or a part of a trend.

North Carolina did go for Obama in 2008 but has reverted since then to Romney & Trump in 2012 & 2016. An influx of young college educated people from other states was supposed to put this state within reach of Democrats. In 2017 Democrats won the governor’s race by a <0.25% margin. They did manage to win 48% of the vote in the House races this year. The win last year could be an aberration as Republican enthusiasm was low & has recovered a bit as seen by the 3% edge in the House vote.

Florida which never seems to give a clear verdict has lived up to its reputation even in 2018. The Republican candidates for Governor and Senate are ahead by <0.5% which would trigger an automatic recount. Like some of the other states mentioned below Republicans have performed well in close elections & Democrats keep falling short. With the support for Trump very high among seniors which constitute the majority of Florida’s population one would expect Trump to narrowly retain Florida in 2020.  The X factor going forward is the decision via a ballot measure this year to restore voting rights of over 1M former felons who have completed their sentences. This is huge no. considering the state is won by around ~100 to 200K votes. This has been projected to be one of the biggest ever additions to any electoral roll over post American Civil War. No one today clearly knows how it will affect future races in the state including 2020.

These 3 “Sun Belt” states are indeed close today but if one had to take an educated guess they would probably deliver narrow victories for Trump. This would leave us with the 3 real toss up “Rust Belt” states: Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania which will decide the presidency in 2020. Trump is projected to be 260 electoral votes just 10 votes shy of the presidency. Back in 2016 before the election I had written on how Clinton was very close to the magic number of 270 number & that she needed to only win one more of the swing states while Trump has to "run the table" & win each & every one of them. I had then called the chance of Trump winning (a term poker aficionados will relate too) equal to probability of "drawing to a straight". Now 4 years on the tables seem to have been turned. Democrats in 2020 will have to win all the 3 tossups in the “Rust Belt” to win back the presidency. This is not a herculean task by any means given the very close nature of fight in 2016 but it will indeed be challenging.

RUST BELT STATES

Nov 6^th did bring some cheer to the Democrats in the Midwest. Trump had won the presidency in 2016 by winning Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania by <78K votes delivering a heartbreak to Hillary & the Democrats.

PENNSVYLVANIA

The incumbent Democratic Governor & Senator had easy victories on Nov 6th. Democrats were able to pick up some seats in the House many of which had redrawn boundaries. With the Democrats winning by 10% margin in the overall House seats vote % this should be likely pickup for Democrats.

MICHIGAN

2018 saw the end of 8 year rule by a Republican Governor & an easy win for the incumbent Democratic Senator. Looking at the all the votes polled in the House races the Democrats won the popular vote in Michigan by 7%. One point to note here is that the Republican losses were to some extent due to the unpopularity of the local Republican leaders among the white working-class voters. These voters have been subjected to anti-union policies, reduction of pensions, undermining of minimum wage increase etc.

WISCONSIN

After multiple attempts over the years to oust incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker the Democrats finally succeeded when Evers defeated Walker by a slender 1.2% margin. Looking at the all the votes polled in the House races the Democrats won the popular vote in Wisconsin by 7%.

Trump was not on the ballot in the Midwest & neither did he campaign there extensively in 2018. Trump is still fairly popular among the white working class with his anti-free trade, anti-China & anti NAFTA stands. For e.g. Trump’s approval rating in Michigan’s exit poll on Tues was ~ 44 percent which is neither great nor terrible. Right now the Democrats would be slightly favored in these 3 states helping them win in 2020, but for example a further improving economy could again bring back the 3 Midwest states in play for Trump & to a tossup status.

CANDIDATE SELECTION

With all the moderates in the House & the Senate either being forced into retirement or having lost on Nov 6^th those who remain are more in line with Trump on a whole host of issues. I.e. party becomes more like Trump going forward at least till 2020. This makes any primary challenge to Trump highly unlikely securing him & Mike Pence the Republican ticket in 2020.

One the Democrats side they have lived through the disaster of a flawed candidate in Hillary Clinton which might have cost them the 2016 election. Democrats can’t afford to mess up their candidate selection otherwise they might end up handing the advantage to Trump. After the shock loss in 2016 there was a lot of soul searching in the Democratic Party. The question was that to counter Trump should they turn hard to the left or go down towards a moderate centrist path. The midterms showed that while those on the left wing of the party/progressives like Beto O'Rourke, Stacey Abrams & Andrew Gillum generated lot of excitement & enthusiasm among the Democrats they ultimately fell short. This would give fillip to centrist Democrats like Joe Biden to insist on saying that the centrist path is the winning way in 2020. Democrats until Trump arrived used to run up the margin in the urban areas to offset the rural votes which leaned Republican. Trump has outsmarted the Democrats by getting the rural voters in huge concentration (spread across various small rural areas) to vote Republican to overcome the Democrats advantage in the big cities. Democrats need to find smart candidates with appeal among rural voters. While it is hard to see them winning big time in rural areas they can’t simply allow Trump blow them out of the water in the rural areas. Even a small cut in the % going to Republicans in these rural areas can have a significant impact on the overall vote total. A good & smart centrist candidate with some folksy charm who can connect with some of the white working class will go a long way to winning back the presidency. They could look as to how Senator Sherrod Brown keeps winning in a Republican leaning state like Ohio as an example or Amy Klobuchar wins in a Midwestern state like Minnesota (doesn’t mean that they have to be the candidate). A centrist presidential candidate from the Midwest combined with a vice presidential candidate from the left wing who can fire up the supporters could prove to be an ideal ticket to counter Trump & Pence in 2020.

The 2020 election which is basically a tossup with no clear favorite today. As we all know two years is an eternity in politics. There can be a whole host of factors which can drive the electorate more towards one vs another party be it internal factors: booming economy or a recession or external events: geopolitical tensions with adversaries, etc. Remember that at this time 4 years ago most thought that Hillary Clinton was on her way to becoming the next President of the USA & Trump had not yet  even thrown his hat into the ring on the Republican side.

REFERENCES

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/when-the-out-party-runs-out-of-luck/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-took-the-house-on-election-night/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-republicans-made-gains-in-the-senate/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-had-a-big-night-in-governors-races-but-it-could-have-been-bigger/

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-map-looked-a-lot-like-2012-and-that-got-me-thinking-about-2020/

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/opinion/midterm-democrats-election-2020.html

https://statmanblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/us-presidential-election-2016.html

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2018-gender-gap-was-huge/