The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces growing pressure to reconsider its five-year ban on Myanmar’s military-backed leaders attending high-level meetings. Thailand and several other members have strengthened their engagement with Myanmar despite its ongoing civil war.

ASEAN leaders will review the restrictions during their summit in Manila from November 15 to 17.

Myanmar has remained in turmoil since 2021, when military chief Min Aung Hlaing ousted the elected government in a coup. The takeover triggered widespread armed conflict that has killed more than 100,000 people.

ASEAN barred Myanmar’s political leaders from its summits and foreign ministers’ meetings after the military failed to implement the Five-Point Consensus, a peace plan agreed upon after the coup.

However, five of the bloc’s 11 members have increased bilateral engagement with Myanmar following elections in December and January. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party won overwhelmingly in polls held without any viable opposition. Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia have welcomed Min Aung Hlaing on official visits this year.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim pledged in October to work towards Myanmar’s reintegration into ASEAN. Thailand has also openly called for easing restrictions.

"For Thailand, we believe that the next step is to have the Foreign Minister of Myanmar participate in the ASEAN meetings at the level of Foreign Minister," Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow told reporters after visiting Myanmar on Thursday.

He said he hoped sufficient progress would allow Myanmar's participation by Thailand's chairmanship in 2028. He added that direct engagement would help ASEAN communicate its concerns to Myanmar's decision-makers.

The growing differences among members have put pressure on the Five-Point Consensus, which calls for an end to violence, inclusive dialogue, humanitarian assistance and mediation through an envoy who can meet all parties.

Philippine spokesperson Dominic Xavier Imperial said ASEAN leaders would issue a negotiated document reviewing the plan's implementation at the upcoming summit.

"I think the Five-Point Consensus now has been overtaken by events," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.

The peace plan has made little progress. Fighting continues, millions remain displaced and efforts to bring opposing sides to dialogue have failed to produce a breakthrough.

Former civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, remains detained. The military moved her to house arrest in April. Although a Red Cross official met her in August, no foreign leader or envoy has been allowed to visit her despite repeated requests.

Thailand has offered to facilitate talks between Myanmar's government and ethnic armed groups along their shared border. Sihasak said Myanmar had agreed in principle to send a delegation, but no date has been announced.

Meanwhile, Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, ASEAN's special envoy, visited Myanmar in October on a humanitarian mission. Discussions are also underway on retaining the position, appointing a permanent envoy or scrapping it.

Thailand's engagement reflects concerns over cross-border fighting, trade, migrant workers and energy cooperation. However, analysts say its approach has encouraged other members to follow suit, leaving Singapore, next year's ASEAN chair, to manage the differences.

Thitinan called for political prisoner releases, humanitarian access and an end to military airstrikes before restrictions are eased.

Human Rights Watch has urged ASEAN to maintain the ban and increase pressure on Myanmar's military to end abuses and restore civilian rule.

Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said closer bilateral ties do not automatically change ASEAN's collective policy.

"There is room for both good cop and bad cop within ASEAN, provided these different approaches remain within the 5PC framework," he said.

"Otherwise, Myanmar could simply play one against the other."

Tay called for regular access to Aung San Suu Kyi, reduced violence and humanitarian assistance.

"ASEAN can be pragmatic without being premature," he said. "Political acceptance should follow progress, not precede it."