Rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa's Islamist group is quickly asserting control over Syria with the same speed it used to seize the country. They are deploying police, setting up an interim government, meeting foreign envoys, and raising concerns about how inclusive the new rulers in Damascus will be.

Since Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group led a rebel alliance to oust Bashar al-Assad on Sunday, its officials—previously managing an Islamist administration in northwest Syria—have taken over government offices in Damascus. On Monday, Mohammed al-Bashir, who led the regional government in HTS’ enclave of Idlib, was appointed Syria’s new interim prime minister. This highlights HTS’ dominance among the armed groups that fought for over 13 years to end Assad’s rule. HTS, once linked to al-Qaeda until it split in 2016, gained widespread support from tribal leaders, local officials, and ordinary Syrians on its way to Damascus by promising to protect minority religions. This assurance helped the rebels advance smoothly, and their leader, Sharaa (known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani), has reiterated this commitment since Assad was removed from power.

At the Damascus governor's office, the new official from Idlib, overseeing the city's affairs, dismissed fears that Syria was heading toward an Islamic government. Mohammed Ghazal, a 36-year-old civil engineer who was born and raised in the United Arab Emirates and spoke English almost flawlessly, said, "There is no such thing as Islamic governance. After all, we are Muslims and it's civil institutions or ministries." 

"We don't have any problem with any ethnicity and religion," he said. "The one who made the problem was the (Assad) regime." The approach HTS has taken to form the new interim government, involving senior administrators from Idlib, has raised concerns. Four opposition sources and three diplomats told Reuters they were worried about how inclusive the process has been so far. Bashir has announced he will stay in power only until March. However, HTS, still considered a terrorist group by the United States, Turkey and other countries, has not yet clarified important details about the transition, including plans for a new constitution. Previously a political counsellor to rebels in Aleppo, Zakaria Malahifji, secretary general of the Syrian National Movement, stated, "You are bringing (ministers) from one colour; there should be the participation of others." He said it was a mistake to form an interim government without consulting anyone. 

"Syrian society is diverse in terms of cultures and ethnicities, so frankly this is concerning," he said. Ghazal claimed to have reassured staff members and persuaded them to resume their jobs, similar to other members of the Salvation Government in Idlib, which is associated with the HTS and who were transferred to Damascus to manage state agencies. "It's a collapsed state. It's ruins, ruins, ruins," Ghazal said. His main focus for the next three months is to ensure basic services are operational and simplify the bureaucracy. Salaries, currently averaging around $25 a month, will be increased to match the Salvation Government's pay scale, with a minimum wage of $100 per month. "Syria is a wealthy country," Ghazal said when asked how it would be funded. "The regime used to steal the money." Policemen from Idlib are now managing traffic in Damascus, working to bring some order after HTS told armed groups to leave the city. One officer, speaking anonymously, mentioned they were short-staffed, as they used to only patrol Idlib.

HTS is the leading group among those that fought against Assad, but other armed factions still operate, especially near the borders with Jordan and Turkey. During the war, rebel groups often fought among themselves, creating lasting rivalries and tensions that posed challenges to stability in post-Assad Syria.

Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, explained that HTS aims to keep its influence growing on all fronts. He noted that any group in their position, taking control after a regime collapse in a war-torn country, would act in a similar way. "There are multiple risks with HTS setting priorities and the pace for what comes next. One of these is to establish a new form of authoritarian rule, this time in Islamic garb," he said.

He noted that Syria's diverse opposition and society would make it hard for any single group to dominate power. Turkey, a key supporter of the opposition, wanted a government capable of gaining international approval, he added.

An opposition insider involved in HTS discussions stated that all of Syria's communities would be included in a transitional government. Over the next three months, key decisions would be made, including whether Syria should adopt a presidential or parliamentary system. The Syrian uprising began during the 2011 Arab Spring, which overthrew rulers in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen, leading to periods of unrest and instability.

In an interview with the Italian newspaper Il Corriere della Sera published on Wednesday, Prime Minister Bashir stated that they would remain in place only until March 2025. He outlined the priorities as restoring security and state authority, repatriating millions of Syrian refugees, and ensuring essential services. When asked if Syria's new constitution would be Islamic, he said such specifics would be addressed during the constitution-making process.

Meanwhile, Mohammed Alaa Ghanem, a prominent Syrian activist based in Washington and connected with senior opposition leaders, mentioned that HTS was being advised to "act wisely and focus on managing the transition effectively, rather than seizing full control of the new government and losing the opportunity." The Biden administration has advised HTS not to take control of Syria on its own but instead to pursue an inclusive process for forming a transitional government. This information comes from two U.S. officials and a congressional aide familiar with the initial U.S. discussions with the group.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasised that Syria's transition should result in "credible, inclusive, and non-sectarian governance" aligned with UN Security Council Resolution 2254. This 2015 resolution outlines a Syrian-led process, supported by the United Nations, to establish non-sectarian governance within six months and set a timeline for drafting a new constitution. The situation calls for elections that are free and fair. One diplomat in Damascus mentioned that HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) is the only group engaging with foreign missions, raising concerns about the absence of political opposition leaders. The diplomat said that having them present would send an important message, but they were missing.

Another diplomat stated that HTS had shared positive messages with the public, but their recent actions regarding inclusivity were worrying. Constitutional reform needs to involve everyone, and this will be a key test. The diplomat also pointed out that many other factions have not yet disarmed or demobilised, which could be a destabilising factor if the process is not inclusive.

Joshua Landis, an expert on Syria, emphasised that Sharaa must quickly establish control to prevent the situation from spiralling into chaos. "But he must also try to scale up his administrative capacity by bringing in technocrats and representatives of the diverse communities," he said.