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Apr 15, 2025
Major General Harsha Kakar

The Mysterious Case of the Bagram Airbase

There is an unconfirmed report that the US has redeployed to the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan. This base was the command centre for NATO and US forces throughout their occupation of Afghanistan. The Taliban took it over after the US withdrawal and the collapse of the Afghan army. Bagram has two runways, including one capable of handling bombers and large cargo aircraft, parking slots for over 100 fighter aircraft, a 50-bed hospital and substantial forces. The report first emerged on Khaama Press, a media outlet which claims to report from Afghanistan, though it is based in the US. The report tracked a US C-17 aircraft, which took off from the Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar and landed in Bagram via Pakistan. The report adds that the flight was carrying top US intelligence officials, including Michael Ellis, the CIA’s deputy chief. Adding to the mystery and dubious intent, the report mentions that the aircraft switched off its transponder on entering Afghanistan airspace and re-switched it on when it re-entered Pakistan. The report has been denied by the Taliban’s chief spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid. He mentioned, “There is no need for any country’s military presence in Afghanistan at present and the Islamic Emirate will not allow such an action.” He added that such an act was ‘impossible.’ There were no comments from the US. To add credence to the report was another input claiming that officials from China’s Ministry of State Security and Iran’s IRGC rushed to Kabul to meet the Taliban’s senior intelligence officials. Trump has repeatedly desired to redeploy to Bagram. The reason given by him is “because Bagram is exactly one hour away from where China makes its nuclear missiles.” He had mentioned that the US should have “a small force in Bagram.” Trump possibly hinted that the US need not take over the airbase and deploy aircraft, but initially establish monitoring facilities focused towards both China and Iran. Hence, the report of the base being handed over would be denied as it remains under control of the Taliban while resources which arrived in the first flight were those of the CIA meant for establishing a monitoring station and not military deployment. Taliban and US ties are being recalibrated. The Taliban recently released a US citizen, George Glezmann, held by them for the past two years, arrested while touring the country. George was handed over to the US hostage envoy, Adam Boehler, when he visited Kabul, accompanied by former US ambassador to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad. Discussions are on for the release of two more US citizens in exchange for an Afghan national under detention in Guantánamo. In response, the US government lifted its USD 10 million bounty on Taliban leader Sirajuddin Haqqani alongside two others, though they remain on the FBI's wanted list. The three had been accused of the 2008 Kabul Serena hotel bombing, which killed six, including an American citizen. There were also reports that the US may hand over the Afghan embassy in Washington to the Taliban, though it may not recognise the ambassador as the formal representative of the Kabul regime. Afghanistan also possesses minerals which the US needs. In case things move positively, it could invest in their extraction. The Trump administration no longer demands that Afghanistan return US equipment abandoned on its soil, while Afghanistan desires that the US release the USD 9.5 billion frozen by them in US banks. Whether the Taliban offered Bagram or it was a US suggestion when Khalilzad visited Kabul is unknown. China, concerned by increased attacks on it by Baloch Freedom Fighters, is now directing the Pakistani army to enhance its operations into Afghanistan. Simultaneously, Pakistan is pushing back Afghan refugees from its soil brutally, resulting in a strong anti-Pak wave in Afghanistan, leading to an increase in cadres of anti-Pak terrorist groups. Clashes along the Durand Line are a regular feature. This impacts Kabul’s ties with Beijing and Islamabad. The US currently does not need Bagram as a base to deploy airpower and troops. It needs it as a monitoring station, ensuring it stays ahead of its rivals, China, Iran and Russia. This does not necessitate taking over the base. The Russian Supreme Court would determine in mid-April whether the Taliban can be removed from its list of terrorist groups, opening doors for its recognition by Moscow. The US is already one step ahead. Bagram would also provide the US monitoring over Central Asia, a Russian dominated region, which it currently lacks. Iran is next door, and talks have commenced between Washington and Tehran on its nuclear program. Trump has threatened war in case talks fail. While that may not happen immediately, close monitoring could be better from Bagram. Chinese nuclear facilities, including those under construction in Xinjiang, are barely 400 km away, as also its missile-producing factory is 1500 km from Bagram. Thus far, the US was monitoring the same from the Philippines which was about 3000 Kms. Bagram would be a far better and more effective option. In case of an emergency, US aircraft could be rapidly deployed or transit exploiting the base. That is unlikely in the near future. The nation most impacted will be Pakistan, which is facing a brunt of attacks from Afghan soil. US-Taliban ties could impact Pakistan’s economic blackmail of Afghanistan. While US presence would enable it to monitor multiple terrorist groups operating in the region, including the ISIK, Al-Qaeda and the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan), it could have been told by Kabul on what it could concentrate on, most likely ignoring the TTP. These are early days. The US flight into Afghanistan and its landing in Bagram was confirmed. Presence of a deputy director of the CIA on the flight does not hint at US intent to have military presence in Afghanistan, at least currently. Hence, in all likelihood the US would be establishing a monitoring station with strict restrictions on its personnel on movement. The Taliban could provide perimeter security. Rushed visits by Chinese and Iranian intelligence agencies to Kabul add credence to this news. Deployment of airpower resources is some distance away. It may happen in the future. Denials flowing from all sides today are logically correct, as the base remains under Taliban control. The future could be different. First published in The Statesman on 15 Apr 2025. Reproduced with the author’s permission.

Apr 11, 2025
Ramaharitha Pusarla

Shedding Historical Baggage, India-Sri Lanka Deepen Ties

After the Maldives and Bhutan, Sri Lanka became the third country in the immediate neighbourhood to confer the highest civilian honour, Sri Lanka Mitra Vibhushana, on Prime Minister Modi during his recently concluded three-day State visit to Colombo. Beyond symbolism, the State Honours are a token of gratitude and recognition of exceptional diplomatic efforts and solidarity with the people of the nation. The Honour is a testament to the nation’s commitment to nurturing friendly relations with foreign nations. After President Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power Coalition (NPP-JVP) assumed charge in September 2024, there were rational fears about the implications of regime change in Sri Lanka on India. Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), the major partner of the coalition, is a strong leftist party, perceived to be pro-China. This has stoked rational fears of the current regime getting too close to China. In the past, JVP strongly opposed Indian troop presence in Sri Lanka. India enjoyed a very cordial relationship with the previous Sri Lankan dispensation led by President Ranil Wickremesinghe. Wickremesinghe, on many occasions, expressed gratitude to India for its stabilising role during Sri Lanka’s economic collapse in 2022. He implemented a vision document charted with India that discussed the feasibility of a land bridge and the Economic and Technological Cooperation Agreement (ETCA). The near complete sweep of the NPP-JVP coalition, even in the Parliamentary elections, spelled out the Sri Lankan public’s firm support for a systemic reformist agenda advocated by President Dissanayake. A unified mandate reflected people's aspirations of ending decades of misgovernance and economic revival. Adopting a pragmatic approach during his campaign, AKD made no anti-India remarks. However, he pledged to bring about transparency in Chinese investments in Sri Lanka. Demonstrating a quick understanding of the vision of the current dispensation, EAM Jaishankar visited Colombo immediately after the election, assuring India’s support to Sri Lanka’s economic and security priorities. Critical of the previous regime’s decisions, the new government opened an investigation into the Adani Wind Power Project, backtracked on the privatisation of Sri Lankan Airlines, in which Indian firms were keen to invest and reversed the decision to award management of Mattala airport to an India-Russia joint venture. However, asserting his priority to pursue national interests, Dissanayake made India his first foreign destination for a state visit. On his India visit in December 2024, leaders of both countries adopted a Joint Vision of Fostering Partnerships for a Shared Future, laying out broad contours of enhanced cooperation. This included counter terrorism, money laundering, drug trafficking, joint training, maritime surveillance, cooperation on hydrography, defence cooperation and energy cooperation. Nevertheless, striking a balance in relations with India and China, Dissanayake visited Beijing in January 2025. But the Chinese engagement was rather vague and lacked clarity. PM Modi who arrived in Colombo on April 5th, was the first leader to be hosted by the Dissanayake regime. Received by six cabinet ministers led by the foreign minister Vijitha Herath, PM Modi extended a ceremonial welcome at the Independence Square. Per sources, this marks the first occasion when a foreign leader was bestowed such an honour at the Square which commemorates Sri Lankan independence from the British. PM Modi and President Dissanayake reviewed the areas of cooperation during the bilateral talks and announced two landmark agreements- a defence cooperation agreement and a trilateral cooperation agreement to make Trincomalee an energy hub. As a part of third country cooperation, India, along with its Strategic Partner UAE, has signed an MoU with Sri Lanka to develop a multi-faceted energy hub in Trincomalee. Previously, India inked trilateral cooperation agreement for Colombo port development project involving Japan. But that failed takeoff due to the perceived China-Japan rivalry. The UAE has good relations with both India and China. The promising inclusion of the UAE, an energy major, is a stroke of diplomatic genius. China has firmly established its influence in Sri Lanka with large-scale infrastructure projects, including an oil refinery and a port at Hambantota, and Mattala airport in the Southern Province. India’s proactive engagement with Colombo, with the UAE’s participation, to develop a regional energy logistics centre at Trincomalee in Eastern Province, can counterbalance Beijing and address the severe power crisis of the island. The power crisis had indeed exacerbated the Aragalya protests of 2022. China has been keen to extend its influence in the Northern Province of Jaffna, India's strategic underbelly. Predominantly a Tamilian province, the NPP-JVP Coalition made major gains in Jaffna during the Parliamentary election, fuelling real concerns of Beijing making quick inroads into this region. An energy hub in Trincomalee and the MoU signed on the electric grid interconnection for import and export of power can potentially reduce Sri Lanka’s reliance on China for power. After assuming power, Dissanayake prioritised economic revival and national security. Aligning with his foreign policy interests, India concluded the debt restructuring process with Sri Lanka, converting a $100 million loan into grants and reducing interest rates. Geopolitical uncertainties have reinforced a glaring reality of the interconnected nature of the national security of India and Sri Lanka. At the press conference in Colombo, PM Modi said, “We believe that we have shared security interests. The security of both countries is interconnected and co-dependent”. In turn, President Dissanayake stated, “Sri Lankan territory will not be used or be allowed to be used in any manner that is inimical or detrimental to India's interests”. In a bid to secure shared security interests, India and Sri Lanka have signed an MoU on defence cooperation. According to sources, the defence agreement has a framework designed for five years comprising high-level military exchanges, joint exercises, capacity building, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations, naval port calls and cooperation between defence industries. Indeed, the conversations on defence cooperation commenced in December 2024 during Dissanayake’s visit to India. This agreement, along with existing maritime cooperation through Colombo Security Cooperation, will provide a new impetus to the defence partnership. The revival of defence marks a new beginning in the India-Sri Lankan contentious past. Countries have signed MoUs on cooperation on digital solutions, multi-sectoral grant assistance of 2.4 billion Sri Lankan Rupees for the eastern province, health &medicine and pharmacopoeia. Leaders have inaugurated the railway track of Maho-Omanthai, launched the construction of the signalling system for the Maho-Anuradhapura railway line. They virtually inaugurated a temperature-controlled first-of-its-kind agriculture warehouse in Dambulla, laid the foundation for the Sampur Solar power project and witnessed the supply of solar rooftop systems for 5000 religious institutions across Sri Lanka. PM Modi announced a comprehensive capacity-building programme for youth, judges, entrepreneurs, media personnel and training for 700 Sri Lankan personnel and pointed to the completion of 10,000 houses for Tamilians. He also offered to send the relics of Lord Buddha found in the Aravali region excavations in Gujarat on International Vesak Day. Describing India and Sri Lanka as “Civilisation twins”, PM Modi announced grant assistance for the Thirukoneswaram Temple, popularly known as Kailash of South; Sita Eliya Temple in Nuwara Eliya and Sacred City Complex Project in Anuradhapura. India’s unprecedented assistance of over US$4 billion through loan deferrals, currency swaps, grants, short-term loan facilities, humanitarian relief, lines of credit and necessary guarantees needed for the $2.9 billion IMF bailout, unlike Chinese loans, has aided in Sri Lanka’s return to sustainable economic recovery. Though the frequent arrest of Indian fishermen and confiscation of their boats by the Sri Lankan Navy and the strong statements by Tamil Satraps often rock the bilateral ties, countries are now trying to evolve a cooperative framework. Notwithstanding the politically motivated resolution by the Tamil Nadu assembly to reclaim the Katchatheevu Islands, coinciding with PM Modi’s visit to Sri Lanka, the countries have displayed enormous maturity to rise above these irritants. Deploying a multi-faceted diplomacy, PM Modi has reached out to Sri Lanka. Ratcheting up cultural diplomacy, PM Modi visited the Maha Bodhi Tree and sought the blessings of Buddhist Saints at Anuradhapura. The Prime Minister also briefly conversed with players of the Sri Lankan Cricket World Cup-winning team. Embalming the old scars, PM Modi laid a wreath at the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) memorial, acknowledging the supreme sacrifice of Indian soldiers. Not allowing the past mistakes to overwhelm the trajectory of current relations, PM Modi displayed an extraordinary Statesmanship in walking an extra mile to fortify ties with the island. By shedding the historical baggage, leaders of both countries have displayed enormous conviction to rebuild the relations on the foundations of mutual respect and goodwill. As the US and China trade spat intensifies, fuelling global rifts, a stable neighbourhood front can certainly serve as a bulwark against the external pressure. The pragmatic approach adopted by the countries attests to the same. References https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/39377/List_of_Outcomes_Visit_of_Prime_Minister_to_Sri_Lanka_April_04__06_2025 https://www.mea.gov.in/media-briefings.htm?dtl/39378/Transcript_of_Special_briefing_by_MEA_on_Prime_Ministers_visit_to_Sri_Lanka_April_05_2025 https://www.tamilguardian.com/content/explained-new-india-sri-lanka-defence-agreement https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/39376/English_Translation_of_Press_Statement_By_Prime_Minister_during_the_Joint_Press_Statement_with_President_of_Sri_Lanka_April_05_2025