Following the recent electoral victory of former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has reached a significant agreement with centre-left and nationalist parties. This accord is set to pave the way for a new government, with expectations of a shift in Slovakia's stance on supporting Ukraine.

Fico, representing the SMER-SSD (Direction-Slovak Social Democracy) party, emerged victorious in the election. During his campaign, Fico committed to discontinuing military assistance to Ukraine and openly criticized sanctions imposed on Russia. It is anticipated that he will assume leadership in the forthcoming government, which is poised to be established prior to the EU summit scheduled for October 26-27, where Ukraine will occupy a prominent position on the agenda.

The potential leadership of a government under Fico's guidance raises the prospect of Slovakia aligning more closely with Hungary, a development occurring amidst ongoing efforts by the European Union and other Western nations to maintain unity in their support for Ukraine.

Furthermore, this shift signals a broader trend in the region away from political liberalism, a trend that could gain momentum if Poland's conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party secures victory in parliamentary elections scheduled for the upcoming weekend.

In an agreement, the centre-left SMER-SSD, HLAS (Voice), and nationalist SNS parties have inked a memorandum, solidifying their commitment to form a coalition government and determine parliamentary leadership. Key among their pledges is the retention of Slovakia's fundamental foreign policy position as a NATO and EU member.

"The parties... guarantee foreign-policy orientation of the Slovak Republic on the basis of membership of Slovakia the European Union, NATO, and other significant international organisations, while fully respecting the sovereignty and national interests," the memorandum said.

Fico, prior to his election victory made clear commitments to cease official Slovak military support to Ukraine, with past administrations having supplied various military equipment, including fighter jets, the S-300 air defense system, and combat and de-mining vehicles. He has been less explicit about commercial supplies from the country's defense industry, encompassing ammunition and heavy equipment manufacturers.

In the lead-up to the election, Fico also expressed his intention to re-negotiate a defense cooperation treaty with the United States. He advocates for humanitarian and reconstruction aid for Ukraine and calls for the European Union to exert pressure to initiate peace negotiations. This stance aligns with that of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban but clashes with the position of Ukraine and its Western allies, who argue that halting weapon supplies could embolden Russian aggression.

Experts and diplomatic sources suggest that the involvement of the more moderate HLAS, coupled with Fico's past pragmatism demonstrated during his leadership in 2006-2010 and 2012-2018, may help temper Slovakia's policy shift.

Following the signing of the memorandum, Fico expressed his intention to adopt a cautious approach toward reducing the budget deficit. This year, the deficit is expected to be the highest in the eurozone, at 6.85% of the gross domestic product. This increase was driven by pre-election spending.

Fico said, "The most important task is to set fiscal consolidation of public finances in a way that we do not have to cancel or change anything on the achieved social standard and at the same time we will have resources to restart growth."

Image source: Reuters