In the process of finalizing candidates to contest from various assembly constituencies during the upcoming 2018 assembly elections for the Karnataka Vidhana Sabha, Karnataka Chief Minister has pressurized the Congress high command to allow him to contest from a second seat Badami in Bagalkot District in North Karnataka in addition to his earlier seat of Chamundeshwari in Mysore. Though opposed to the idea, the high command has relented to Siddaramaiah’s wish in what is seen as a triumph for the Chief Minister’s popularity and control on the party in the state. While Siddaramaiah might feel more confident of acing at least one of two if not both, things do not seem to be as rosy for him as the Chief Minister wants the people of the state to believe.

Prior to delimitation exercise in 2000s, Siddaramaiah had won multiple times from Chamundeshwari constituency on JD(S) ticket. The constituency had a large number of Kurubas (Siddaramaiah belongs to this caste) and Gowdas (the main vote bank of the JD(S)) which assisted Siddaramaiah’s political rise. Post delimitation, which roughly coincided his move to Congress, he shifted to the neighboring constituency of Varuna (which had a higher percentage of Kurubas). Even in 2013, when he contested asking the people of his constituency to vote for the future chief minister of the state, the margin of his victory was not something to talk about.

Cut across to 2017 and 2018, Chief Minister is now seeking a bid to be only the second chief minister in almost 4 decades to get reelected after the legendary D Devaraj Urs. During his stint as the chief minister, his eldest son died in Belgium and now he wants his younger son (who is a doctor by profession) to enter politics and contest from the same Varuna constituency. While doing so, Siddaramaiah seems to have decided to make it easy for his son to enter electoral politics by relinquishing his seat (where he had won both times) in favour of his son. Siddaramaiah decided to switch back to his earlier constituency of Chamundeshwari to fight the 2018 polls. JD(S) which is strong in the constituency has decided to give the Chief Minister a tough fight. JD(S) leader from Chamundeshwari, G T Devegowda is now contesting against Siddaramaiah. The war of words duly began and if a leaked state intelligence report has to be believed, Siddaramaiah is well on his way to lose the seat. While Siddaramaiah denies the existence of such a report, it is true that the seat is not a walkover for him.

Winning his own MLA seat is of paramount importance for Siddaramaiah if there is any chance for him to continue as the Chief Minister beyond May 2018. It is to be noted that the PCC Chief G Parameshwar had lost his seat in 2013 thereby losing out on becoming the Chief Minister back then. Siddaramaiah understands that he too might lose out on the race for the CM post, if he loses the seat.

It is in this context that the CM’s decision to contest from North Karnataka has to be analyzed. However, this close to the elections, this move from the CM is being seen as running away in fear of defeat. Both BJP and JD(S) are leaving no stone unturned in explaining to the electorate that Siddaramaiah and Congress are sensing defeat and hence trying to find excuses. The electorate too seems to have caught a fancy to this narrative and now thinks that Congress in general and Siddaramaiah in particular might finally be paying a price for the maladministration.

Having said this, the spoils of electoral war will be collected by both the JD(S) and BJP in their respective areas of dominance. Anti-incumbency against the state government and also against the ruling party MLAs is slowly peaking and might become a decisive factor at a macro level in each constituency.

In addition, the BJP has adopted an aggressive strategy of cornering Siddaramaiah to the 3 constituencies where he and his son are contesting and limit his campaigning elsewhere. To this effect, they have fielded former Health Minister B Sriramulu, a political heavyweight from Bellary district against Siddaramaiah in Badami, Bagalkot district. Oddly enough, this is being colloquially called as a ‘Sidrama vs. Srirama’ fight. Sriramulu is politically close to the Reddy brothers who were infamous for the mining scam during the earlier BJP rule from 2008-2013, and is the current Member of Parliament from Bellary district. In addition, he belongs to the Valmiki community who has a sizeable presence in Badami. Siddaramaiah came in with a calculation that a sizeable number of Kuruba community votes along with SC votes will bail him out. Unfortunately for him, there is every possibility that the ST votes, in addition to Valmiki and Lingayat votes might rally behind Sriramulu and that will result in a shock loss to the sitting Chief Minister.

The entry of Sriramulu and Reddy brothers into the mix inadvertently helps the BJP to consolidate their hold on the Valmiki community, a few Scheduled Tribes communities and even the Reddy community in Hyderabad Karnataka and Central Karnataka. The Congress too has decided to underplay the separate religion status granted to Lingayats fearing that it might work against the party as the Lingayats might vote en-masse to the BJP across the state. Even the incumbent Lingayat legislators from Congress fear the worst.

Such a ‘hasty retreat’ beaten by the Congress will definitely have its ramifications in the Old Mysore region where JD(S) is at its strongest. If things go according to Kumaraswamy’s plans, JD(S) might well emerge as the largest opposition party and Congress might be relegated to third spot. To this effect, JD(S) is cashing in on a new narrative taking shape that the Congress is anti-Vokkaliga (also known as Gowdas).

While forcing the Chief Minister to eat humble pie is the short-term strategy to win the battle, the war of 2019 still lies ahead including the sub-plot of where exactly will Rahul Gandhi contest. As indicated in my earlier post about the stakes in the Karnataka elections, Lok Sabha constituencies like Chikkaballapur will be in Rahul’s radar hoping that he will have a safe passage instead of a trial by fire in Amethi where Smriti Irani will most certainly contest. But having tasted success in giving Siddaramaiah a run for his money in the assembly elections and the Bellary elections of 1999 where Sushma Swaraj challenged Sonia Gandhi unsuccessfully, BJP will definitely ensure that no seat in Karnataka will be a safe bet for Rahul Gandhi.

And finally, as and when the Congress loses the reins of the state government, the steady flow of cash for the party would cease to exist for the larger battles that lie ahead in 2018 and 2019. It would become very difficult for the Congress to not just fund their electoral campaigns but also strategize their roadmaps. And that could well be a deathblow to the Congress’s chances in 2019.

Siddaramaiah has made this election a referendum of his government’s performance. Make no mistake, he has run an extremely effective campaign and not too long ago, it was his election to lose (earlier post explaining the same). Such was the context of Siddaramaiah’s dominance within the party that even the Congress high command in Delhi had to agree to his formula for distribution of tickets to the various candidates. For a party that placed all its eggs into one basket, the risk of losing if the basket goes awry is all the more with no plan B to fall back on. Ironically, Siddaramaiah lifted the party’s prospects in the run up to the elections and now it might be Siddaramaiah’s folly that might bring curtains to the party’s rule in the state.