Russia-Ukraine/NATO War: An Endgame?
- In Military & Strategic Affairs
- 11:19 PM, Jan 24, 2025
- Khushi Mishra & Dr. A. Adityanjee
In the words of the Indian Prime Minister, 'This era is not of war, but of dialogue and diplomacy.' The newly elected President of the USA has stated several times that he can finish the war between these two countries within 24 hours. However, that has not happened yet, since Trump was sworn in for his second term.
The war between Ukraine and Russia, which erupted on February 24, 2022, has left a deep scar on Europe, reminding the world of the horrors of war that many thought were behind us. What Russia initially called a "special military operation" quickly escalated into a full-scale invasion, pushing Europe into its most significant conflict since World War II.
For Ukraine, this was not a political debate or a territorial dispute—it was a battle for survival, identity, and the right to live freely without fear of domination. As the world watched, it became clear that this conflict is about much more than just borders or alliances - the real victims are the common citizens of Ukraine and Russia.
Moreover, the 21st century has no place for expansionist policies, and the world must recognise and respect the same. Russia's aggression has compelled the world to move towards the brink of World War III. Moreover, Russia's aggression sets the wrong narrative that if it's Ukraine today, it could be Taiwan tomorrow if China decides to tread on the same path. Hence, it is in everybody's interest to vehemently expose and oppose expansionist policies.
Cost of War
For the ordinary people of Ukraine, the invasion came with sirens, explosions and a sense of dread that would forever alter their lives. Families were torn apart, homes destroyed, and entire cities turned to rubble. It wasn't just soldiers in combat—it was civilians living in constant fear, living through bombings, and trying to survive amid violence. "The flame was higher than the house," one Ukrainian witness recalled as bombs and rockets pounded their neighbourhoods.
At the same time, Russian civilians, too, have paid a price, though in a different way. Their country's aggression has led to global isolation, economic sanctions, and a deepening divide between Russia and the rest of the world. The war has drained Russia's resources, crippled its economy, and left its people to question the cost of their government's expansionist ambitions.
While much has been spoken about heroism presented by Ukraine in defence of its sovereignty and integrity, alleged atrocities committed by the Russian forces have been equally horrific. War crimes and violation of international law reports emanating from the invasion since day one are simply shocking. Areas like hospitals, schools, and residential buildings have been hammered with indiscriminate bombing of cities and towns.
Entire communities have been flattened by the heavy artillery and cluster bombs used by forces in civilian areas. Daily life is becoming increasingly impossible because of the destruction of infrastructure, such as roads, power plants, and hospitals. Families have been torn, leaving thousands of its populations fleeing and asking for safety, while others are left behind, trapped in cities under siege. This Russian brutality has been nothing but strengthening the will of the Ukrainian people to stand, making this war over land a matter of existence and dignity.
On the other hand, civilians in Russia have been faced with global isolation and a crippling economy, and real domestic issues are being bypassed in the name of a war being fought by their hyper-nationalistic government.
An Endgame?
As the war rages on, the international community finds itself deeply divided. While NATO countries have supported mainly Ukraine with military aid and economic sanctions against Russia, the question of how to end the conflict remains unclear. In November 2024, as the violence escalated, the United States allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles, which led to a dramatic increase in military strikes inside Russian territory. This, in turn, provoked Russia to issue open threats to countries supporting Ukraine, followed by Russia launching an Inter-Continental Missile towards Ukraine followed by a drone attack in the region. There are credible reports of North Korean soldiers fighting on behalf of Russia as well as Western mercenaries fighting on behalf of Ukraine.
This war has sparked fear of a wider global conflict, with many worried that the situation could spiral into something far more dangerous - a potential World War III. NATO countries are divided, with some strongly supporting Ukraine's right to defend itself with advanced weaponry, while others worry about provoking Russia into even more significant escalation.
The real question, however, is not just about who will win the war but who will lose - and the answer is clear. Both Russia and Ukraine are losing. Russia is globally isolated, has a wrecked economy and has several unaddressed internal domestic issues. In contrast, Ukraine is fighting for its identity and sovereignty - the war has only perpetuated suffering across the region.
Global Political Changes
The return of the Indian Prime Minister for a 3rd term and the election of Donald Trump as the President of the United States of America are key changes in the geopolitical landscape. India has continuously called for peace and truce in the region and urged Putin to end the war and resolve issues diplomatically.
On the other hand, the newly elected US President Donald Trump has been bullish about ending the war in an accelerated manner through intervening negotiations and dialogue. Trump has already admonished both parties in this war breaking a previously sensed bias in favour of Russia. As the days unfold, the world is yet to see how these recent geopolitical changes will affect the region.
The Need for Realistic Peace
Both President Zelensky and President Putin have presented peace plans, but they are far from realistic. The path to peace lies not in rigid demands but in compromise, dialogue and an honest recognition of the geopolitical realities. The way forward lies not in imposing unyielding demands but in compromise and dialogue with a candid recognition of reality as it is. Ukraine's sovereignty must be respected; meanwhile, Russia's security concerns must be balanced without referring to territorial conquest.
As the war has been going on for over two and a half years, the world has watched with open mouths in horror. What could have been limited to geopolitical differences alone has culminated into a humanitarian catastrophe. The international community, led by nations like India, which have constantly been calling for diplomacy and dialogue, must lead in calling forth peace. Both Presidents must realise that this war, with its catastrophic loss of lives and resources, can't go on forever.
Path to Peace
In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump claimed that Moscow and Kyiv have both lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers in a war that “should never have started.”
“There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. Too many lives are being needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed,” he said, as he called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to act to bring the fighting to an end.
Trump’s remarks came after a meeting Saturday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, that Zelenskyy later described as “constructive”.
Speaking to reporters later that day, Zelenskyy insisted that any peace deal “should be just” for Ukrainians, “so that Russia and Putin or any other aggressors will not have the opportunity to return.”
In a separate social media update Sunday, Zelenskyy asserted that Kyiv has so far lost 43,000 soldiers since Moscow's all-out invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, while a further 370,000 have been wounded.
Both leaders must recognise that this war has had staggering and uncalled-for effects, and it is high time that both countries negotiated a peace plan while mutually addressing each other's legitimate concerns. Zelenskyy, of late has warmed up for an Indian role in peace-making in this region.
Ukraine's territorial concerns and Russia's security concerns including the enlargement of NATO shall form the foundational basis of a mutually respectful, agreeable and constructive peace plan. Both countries must realise that it is over two and a half years since the war started, and prolonging it is in no one's favour.
The only path to peace visible is through dialogue and diplomacy with stakeholders like India and the US, among others, driving negotiations. It is an excellent opportunity for the world’s two established democracies to act in unison and achieve results for the peace and prosperity of the entire humanity.
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