As Bihar is getting ready to welcome yet another term of Nitish Kumar's captaincy in the Bihar Takht, political analysts in and outside India are analysing the growing influence of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), the brainchild of Asaduddin Owaisi. AIMIM has won 5 seats in the assembly elections. The Owaisi brothers are not new entrants in the Indian politics. The opposition parties have repeatedly pointed out that the electoral rise of AIMIM is closely linked to BJP's winning run. But make no mistake, as Indians, the Owaisi brothers are well within their democratic rights to contest and win elections. Is the rise of AIMIM redirecting a paradigm shift in Muslim vote share in Indian politics?

Minority appeasement and Muslim politics

The whole idea of minority appeasement is not new in Indian politics. It was way before BJP contested the electoral polls. Indian National Congress, the party which slowly transformed itself to a Gandhi home ground, has always been keen on getting the minority votes. The situation changed when BJP with a loud and clear Hindutva agenda entered the electoral dynamics, especially after the Babri Mosque demolition in 1992. Not only the Congress Party but also the communist and other regional parties’ targeted the Muslim vote bank with a soft Hindu approach. The two-fold strategy focusing on the Soft Hindu and pseudo-secular minority appeasement vendetta paid off for two decades. But in the long run, the Indian Muslims understood that they were used as pawns for electoral benefits by the power-hungry vultures of Indian democracy. The vacuum concerning the Muslim representation in Indian politics created a new space beyond the 'secular' hype.

The rise of Narendra Modi in New Delhi and the Owaisi brothers

It is an absolute coincidence that ever since the rise of Narendra Modi in Delhi as the PM, the Owaisi brothers have also strengthened themselves. From their traditional bastion in Hyderabad, they have successfully tried their luck in states like Maharashtra and they have leapfrogged the overhyped Grand Alliance in Bihar. It is as clear as daylight that they are going to contest elections in Bengal next year, where the considerable Muslim population can offer them some freebies in some bordering districts. There is no surprise or rocket science in AIMIM's popularity in some areas where RSS and BJP have collectively gathered electoral momentum with the right-wing pro-Hindu approach. Last time during the Maharashtra Elections, when AIMIM won Aurangabad Central and Byculla seats in Mumbai, they defeated Shiv Sena and BJP candidates. AIMIM is playing the number arithmetic as suited to their agenda. In Narendra Modi's reign as Prime Minister, BJP has played no hide and seek with Hindutva. A direct dharmarashtra approach has stumped parties like the Indian National Congress who are no more in positions to play the 'soft Hindu' line. Again, with upper-caste Hindu leaders in the fray, the parties don't have the credibility to play as mouthpieces of the Muslims as well. PM Narendra Modi has exposed the fake secular agendas of this centrist, communist and regional parties. On the governance front, the ruling BJP has tried an inclusive framework to reach out to the masses irrespective of religious and caste divide. This has also narrowed down AIMIM's strategy - they don't have any other approach but to woo the Urdu speaking Muslims. Interestingly, analysts must look in carefully, that AIMIM has been focussing their one-sided content to Urdu Muslims and not the pan Indian Hindi speaking Muslims. This is also a deviation from the pseudo secularist approach opted by Congress and other political parties.

Rise of the Owaisis is not equal to BJP’s advantage

On the electoral front, very few parties in India have been able to build Dalit – Muslim alliance. Barring Kanshi Ram and Mayawati, no other political party has tried it successfully. AIMIM is trying to fill in the shoes with communal angle and bits and pieces of caste engineering. It is too early to say that AIMIM will be able to carve out a vote friendly social alliance between the Muslims, Dalits and sections of the OBCs. But there lies the limitation of the Owaisis as well. As Mayawati's BSP has lost strength, BJP has been able to bring back the backward class votes under the overarching Hindu identity. Smart and shrewd politicians to the core, Owaisi brothers don't want to be a mouthpiece of the Muslims alone in India. In that case, they will always come second. Side by side, for parties like Congress, it is politically impossible to ally with AIMIM keeping in mind their over-imaginative Virat Bharat secular narrative.

There is thus always a possibility that AIMIM may end up in the lines of the erstwhile Muslim League!

Is Asaduddin Owaisi trying to become the next Jinnah?

Public memory is selectively short. In 1927, the party was founded in Hyderabad to provide a religious and cultural platform to the Muslims. Qasim Razvi, who became the face of the erstwhile MIM, used to head the notorious Razakars. Qasim Razvi had to migrate to Pakistan and it was Abdul Wahed Owaisi, the grandfather of the Owaisi fathers who became the head of the party. MIM added All India to it and became AIMIM, but the communal and anti-India past of the political party can never be forgotten.

Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the founding father of Pakistan was an ambitious political personality. Unlike Nehru, he didn't live long to rule Pakistan for a considerable time. Asaduddin Owaisi has not yet revealed his plans - but one thing is quite clear as of now. AIMIM is filling up the empty space of Muslim rights. The Owaisi brothers have been too political well within their limits and are yet to stress the ideological clout. Only time will tell, whether they have bigger ambitions or not. But make no mistake, AIMIM is hijacking the minority vote bank of Congress and other political parties.

Image Credit:ANI