Real reasons for BJP’s defeat in Gurdaspur by-election
- In Politics
- 01:21 PM, Oct 16, 2017
- Saiganesh Sritharan
The result of Gurdaspur Lok Sabha by-poll in Punjab has resulted in Indian National Congress victory with a huge margin of 1.9 Lakhs votes. Many analysts have already started claiming that the prime reason for the defeat of BJP is dissatisfaction with Modi’s government but this is absolutely fictitious. This election requires much deeper analysis to crack down the reasons for the result.
Absence of Popular face as Vinod Khanna:
Late actor Vinod Khanna was elected as the member of parliament of Lok Sabha from Gurdaspur four times and he also chaired few important ministries during Vajpayee rule, which made him a very popular figure in the constituency. His appealing and charismatic personality made the Gurdaspur constituency a strong foothold for BJP. It’s not an easy task to fill the void left by Vinod Khanna but Vinod Khanna’s wife Kavita Khanna as the candidate would have helped BJP with sympathy wave but BJP went with Swaran Salaria, which didn’t work for the party. Congress’s candidate, Sunil Kumar Jakhar was the leader of opposition in Punjab legislative assembly from 2012-2017 and the president of Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee, which made him as one of the most popular face in the state. BJP’s candidate, Swaran Salaria was a popular businessman in the constituency and also served earlier as chairman of the Punjab state commission for protection of child rights, but his popularity was no match for Sunil Kumar Jakhar. The absence of popular charismatic figure like Vinod Khanna is one of the important reason for the reduction in vote share of BJP, which ultimately led to their defeat.
Poor performance in recent assembly elections:
BJP’s defeat is more because of the poor image of its ally Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) than its own image in the state. BJP-SAD alliance faced a crushing defeat in Punjab assembly elections few months ago because of the dissatisfaction of people towards the SAD government and huge anti-incumbency. The result of Gurdaspur by-poll is reflection of this dissatisfaction towards SAD in previous assembly polls. To understand this better, let’s see how these parties performed in previous
assembly polls. Gurdaspur Lok Sabha constituency consists of nine assembly constituencies: Bhoa, Pathankot, Gurdaspur, Dinanagar, Qadian, Fathegarh Churian, Dera Baba Nanak, Sujanpur and Batala.
Assembly constituency |
2017 (Number of votes) |
Winner |
Bhoa |
BJP-SAD: 40369 INC: 67865 |
INC |
Pathankot |
BJP-SAD: 45213 INC: 56383 |
INC |
Gurdaspur |
BJP-SAD: 38753 INC: 67709 |
INC |
Dinanagar |
BJP-SAD: 40259 INC: 72176 |
INC |
Qadian |
BJP-SAD: 50859 INC: 62596 |
INC |
Fathegarh Churian |
BJP-SAD: 52349 INC: 54348 |
INC |
Dera Baba Nanak |
BJP-SAD: 59191 INC: 60385 |
INC |
Sujanpur |
BJP-SAD: 48910 INC: 30209 |
BJP-SAD |
Batala |
BJP-SAD: 42517 INC: 42032 |
BJP-SAD |
Among the assembly constituencies under Gurdaspur Lok Sabha constituency, BJP-SAD alliance was able to win only 2 seats out of 9 seats in the previous assembly elections and out of 7 seats lost; they lost 5 seats with very huge margin. This result in assembly election also got reflected in the recent Gurdaspur Lok Sabha by-poll. Captain Amarinder Singh’s government didn’t have much public displeasure in the past 6 months and all these reasons resulted in INC’s sliding victory in Gurdaspur by-poll.
Reason for huge margin victory for INC - The case of cross-voting:
Aam Aadmi Party, which secured 16% vote share in Gurdaspur constituency during 2014 Lok Sabha elections received just 2.8% in the recent by-poll and majority of these lost votes of AAP were polled to INC in the by-poll. This is a clear case of cross-voting, which is very common in many constituencies. This was seen in Delhi 2015 assembly elections, where majority of INC votes went to AAP and resulted in huge mandate for AAP. This also happened in some constituencies of Kerala, where INC voters voted for CPI(M) in few constituencies and vice versa in few more constituencies to prevent the rise of BJP. Kejriwal knowingly didn’t work much for Gurdaspur by-poll and thus this election became a two-front fight where the original vote share of AAP is shifted to INC. Thus, anti-incumbency votes of previous SAD government along with cross voting from AAP to INC resulted in huge margin victory for INC with 25% jump in vote share.
All the above reasons resulted in huge victory margin for INC in Gurdaspur by-election It is too early to conclude that BJP’s appeal is fading amongst people and it’s absurd to conclude that BJP’s rise will be halted because of this election result.
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