Nature abhors a vacuum and so does Politics. Kashmir goes a step further. It switches into self-destructive mode. In 1990, when Farooq Abdullah abdicated suddenly and Jag Mohan had not yet reached the Valley, even one night of vacuum spelled disaster of unspeakable proportions. Those who remember the night of January 19, 1990, when no one was in power technically and there was a political vacuum, Kashmir nearly destroyed itself.  It took many years (nearly 6 years) to fix the damage that had been caused by that one night of vacuum. After that Delhi learnt an important lesson. Elections must be held and political space must not be ceded. PV Narasimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh ensured that elections were held and political process kept going. This did not solve the Kashmir crisis because solutions are not simple but it prevented the acute crisis from becoming a catastrophe.

The first vacuum before this current crisis that has gripped the valley came about when no one won majority after the assembly elections. BJP swept Jammu, PDP gained less that it was expected to and National Conference was not wiped out as expected. Posing an incredible challenge to politicians nobody came up with a solution quick enough. Finally when Mufti- Modi accord did get finalized, the state had already moved into a vacuum mode. BJP-PDP alliance as has been repeatedly said was no natural alliance. There was no meeting ground between a party that has removal of Article 370 in their core agenda and the party that is etched deep in soft separatism. Some of us had expressed the lack of compatibility between BJP and PDP but once the alliance did happen, this writer believed that they should be given a chance. Cautious Optimism is the phrase I had used then as I outlined the red lines that the alliance must not cross.

Mufti Sayeed had barely taken over that he fell ill and was hospitalized. As luck would have it, vacuum descended on the valley again. After Mufti passed away, Mehbooba started to reinvent the wheel again. Instead of stepping in her father’s place immediately she let a sense of deep uncertainty engulf the state. When uncertainty is bred by politicians, the next thing that follows is rumors. Rumors about her having fallen out with BJP, and her unhappiness spread everywhere. Simultaneously, BJP also didn’t do anything to dispel rumors nor did they prevail on Mehbooba to not leave Chief Minister’s office vacant for that long. Where there is confusion, there can be no focus on governance. Where there is no governance, in a state like Jammu and Kashmir it means provinces like Jammu and Ladakh feel alienated and terrorists find a fertile ground in Kashmir.

Mehbooba had an extremely tough job. She has started her political career by visiting the families of slain terrorists.  At one point when she was still building her party she declared that Syed Salahuddin is her long lost brother. From there, she was now seen with BJP that is considered an anathema in the valley. Her job was to regain confidence of people and tell them she was working for the benefit of the state alone. She tried but her actions belied her intentions. She completely faltered after Burhan Wani’s killing. Mehbooba had two choices- either support the killing of terrorist in a genuine encounter and clamp down hard on anti-social elements after that or break the alliance and become a martyr. Mehbooba did nothing of the above. Her government vacillated on Burhan Wani issue and could not present a cogent narrative. She neither wanted to lose power nor did she want to lose support of her voter base. It became so embarrassing that her spokespersons were seen going against the government one day and feigning ignorance the other day.

I am not sure if Mehbooba was counseled by BJP top brass about her dangerous vacillations. I am not sure if they tried and she refused to listen. Whatever be the case, she appeared floundering, law and order slipped from her hands and protests became intense. Mehbooba could not decide whether to act tough or act lenient. She locked herself up, became aloof and that ‘healing touch’ which she touted before her government was sworn in disappeared.

Mehbooba could simply not set her narrative nor could she counter the narrative that was being set by the opposition that conveniently took her erstwhile position in the Kashmir polity. Abdullahs courted Jamaat e Islami and spoke the language of separatists that PDP was adept at doing while in opposition. Governance is tough and demands cool headedness. Mehbooba could neither govern nor could she keep her head cool. If she had adopted a tough stance after Burhan Wani and signaled that she would clamp down on all violent activities, things may not have come to this. Instead she hoped that the electorate she had reached out to during her time in opposition would stand by her, now that she is in power. She forgot the complexities of the state politics, with the result Mehbooba is now neither in a position to break alliance nor is she able to govern.

Could BJP have acted differently? There is no question that they went into the alliance in good faith and respecting the mandate that they had received in Jammu. Mehbooba has a fatal flaw, she is a tough nut to crack and is not amenable to suggestions. BJP state unit cannot catch up to Mehbooba’s antics. Central BJP gave her along rope which she hasn’t been able to justify.

Today South Kashmir has slipped from the state Government’s hands. Rest of the valley is reeling under violent protests. Students are out protesting every day. Security forces are getting mixed signals and there are serious number of casualties amongst CRPF and Army every day. J&K Police Force has never been more vulnerable. Recently they were told not to visit their homes due to safety concerns. If an Army man of the disciplined force like Indian Army is forced to tie an alleged stone pelter to the vehicle and use him as a security shield to get out of a conflict situation, it only reflects how stressed Army is to save lives and yet maintain law and order.

Peace in Kashmir is a period between two violent periods. There are no easy solutions to this crisis that has been thrust on us by history and destiny. All difficult solutions like trifurcation of state and abolishing Article 370 require unprecedented amount of courage and appetite for global criticism that no Prime Minister can afford in his first term. Delusion of reaching out to local people is just that- delusion. Talking to separatists is like using band aid to cure a deep gash that requires surgery. Imposing Governor’s rule is pushing Mehbooba into the laps of separatists which is her comfort zone anyway.

Only solution maybe to ride this wave of violence, push the state government to bring law and order in control and at the same time earn confidence of  the constituency that may be angry with India but do not want Pakistan either. If Mehbooba is unable to control the protests then there may be no choice but to impose Governor’s rule but let’s hope it does not come to that. It is easy to clamp Governor's rule but in a state like J&K restoring democracy after that is extremely difficult.