9^th BRICS summit themed on “Stronger Partnership for a brighter future” held at Xiamen in Fujian province of China concluded successfully couple of days ago. Xiamen Summit can be reckoned as the most impactful of all BRICS meets for being instrumental in forcing China for mutual disengagement of troops locked in the prolonged 73-day Doklam standoff.

Genesis of BRICS

Acronym BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa that have come together a decade ago with an objective of promoting the idea of “multipolar world”. But genesis of BRICS, relevance and functioning are critiqued since its inception. In 2001 Chief economist of Goldman Sachs Jim O Neil, in a research publication opined that 21^st century global economy will be dominated by fast growing developing economies and coined the term BRIC. Taking a cue, in 2006, foreign ministers of these countries met along the sidelines of UN General Assembly sessions at New York and realized the prospect of BRIC grouping. Accordingly, in 2009, heads of BRIC countries met for a summit meeting in Russia.  In 2011, South Africa joined the group giving the alliance its present name BRICS. Since 2009 BRIC summits were held annually. Over years, BRICS alliance began to gain greater prominence due to growing economic muscle (global share increased from 11% to 24% from 1990-2014) now it is regarded as competitor to G-7. But the west has been skeptical of BRICS objectives since all other BRICS nations other than India are headed by authoritarian leaders. Some believe that India’s democratic credentials lends credence to this grouping.

Despite criticisms and praises, international community can hardly afford to ignore BRICS, home to 48% of global population. BRICS nations having realized the need for greater economic cooperation, collectively developed robust financial structures for mutual benefit- New Development Bank (NDB) and The BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA). Obliterating criticisms of commentators, the multilateral Shanghai-based NDB started in 2015, began issuing loans for renewable energy development from 2016. Ahead of the Xiamen summit, NDB approved loans worth of $1.4 billion for sustainable development projects in China, Russia and India. While robust functioning of NDB, silenced critics, China’s aggressive posturing and hijacking of agenda is becoming too obvious to discount.

China’s attempts to hijack BRICS Agenda

Aside prospects of gainful economic cooperation, wary of US dominated unipolar world, India heavily rallied for BRICS. While China and Russia pitched hard for BRICS to challenge the Western hegemony. Rapid economic rise of China and slowing of Russian economy eventually changed the delicate balance of BRICS. Soon, China began to dominate BRICS realm. Burgeoning Chinese hegemony and its eventually heckling of BRICS agenda became more evident with Beijing warning India days ahead of Xiamen summit against raising Pakistan’s role in perpetrating terrorism. Beijing’s precondition countermanded objectives of BRICS of enhancing cooperation amongst five nations in the fight against terrorism. Undeterred by Chinese objections, during negotiations, Indian officials insisted on naming and shaming Pakistan for orchestrating cross border terrorism.

Eventually, unlike the Goa declaration, that failed to name the Pakistani based terror outfits in the joint declaration, Indian persistence, forced China to include terror groups patronized by Pakistan in Xiamen declaration. The declaration not only condemned terror attacks on BRICS countries but added that “We, in this regard, express, concern on the security situation in the region and violence caused by the Taliban, ISIL/ DAESH, Al-Qaeda and its affiliates including East Turkestan Islamic Movement, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Haqqani Network, Laskhar-e-Toiba, Jaish e Mohammed, TTP and Hizb ut Tarir”.  The inclusion of Pakistani groups was considered as diplomatic victory by some considering China belligerent stand towards India till a week ahead of Xiamen summit. China’s shift in position is a significant improvement from last year BRICS summit in Goa where Beijing forthrightly snubbed India for calling Pakistan the “mothership” of terrorism. Experts quickly pointed that China and Pakistan signed Heart of Asia’s Amritsar declaration where Pakistani terror groups were named.  Hence, it might be premature to rejoice over China’s amenable stance and anticipate any change of position with respect to a resolution demanding ban on Masood Azhar at UN. Above all, by including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) along with JeM, China weakened BRICS nations resolution to fight against terrorism and indirectly defended Pakistan’s narrative. The declaration affirmed that “those responsible for committing, organizing o supporting terrorist acts must be held accountable” and called for expeditious finalization and adoption of Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) by the UN. Despite China’s loud proclamations, its position has always been duplicitous.

Though BRICS is an energetic alliance with significant economic clout, China’s hegemonic aspirations are casting a dark shadow. Over the past three decades, China has considerably expanded its economic and military outreach. Buoyed by success in establishing AIIB (Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank), NDB, unveiling OBOR and Renminbi becoming third largest currency, China is making incremental advances to challenge the World economic order. Beijing has also initiated harmonization of financial institutions of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Shanghai pact which envisaged a “Eurasian political, economic and military organization”, was the forerunner of SCO, through which China fostered cooperation with Central Asian countries and Russia. At Astana Summit, India and Pakistan joined SCO as full members boosting China’s global heft. While China and Russia joined hands to strengthen SCO to balance western hegemony, China is now making every effort to dominate BRICS.

China’s BRICS-Plus Approach

To advance its global ambitions Beijing is intent on using BRICS platform to expand its sphere of influence. In March, China floated “BRICS plus” approach. Beijing even explored modalities of expanding the group. Though China didn’t make any official announcement of expansion plans, the term “BRICS plus” was mentioned in joint statement.  Xi said “We should promote the BRICS plus cooperation approach and build an open and diversified network of development partnerships to get more emerging markets and developing countries (EMDC) involved in our concerted efforts for cooperation and mutual benefits”. China even invited five pro-China countries, critical players for OBOR as guests for Xiamen Summit. These included- Mexico, Guinea, Kenya, Egypt and Tajikistan (as representatives of EMDCs). Further Xi rebuked Trump’s protectionist approach and seized this opportunity to project China as epitome of “Open World Economy”. He announced plans of investing 500 million yuan to start an economic and technology cooperation program in BRICS countries, pledged $500 million assistance for South-South Cooperation and made additional investment of $4 million in NDB. China made its intentions of expanding BRICS clear by extending invitation to select countries. India must be wary of Chinese ambitions. India swayed by ideological posturing regarded BRICS as an “extension of non-alignment” and failed to gauge Chinese hypocrisy. Unlike earlier regimes, sentimentalism or ideological moorings no longer drive India’s foreign policy. India foreign policy is now making every effort to assess consequences of any partnership on Indian interests.

Just as Xi held a dialogue with BIMSTEC group at the Goa BRICS summit, Modi addressed EMDCs at Xiamen. He apprised them of India’s tradition of collaborating with fellow developing countries for mutually beneficial cooperation and common development. He called for coordinated action and cooperation in areas such as counter terrorism, cyber security and disaster management.  

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Xi-Modi Meet

Modi held bilateral talks with heads of states of Russia, Brazil and South Africa. But post Doklam standoff, Modi-Xi bilateral drew international attention. Disclosing the outcomes of an hour-long bilateral between both leaders, Foreign Secretary Jaishankar summarized that “President Xi and Prime Minister Modi laid out a positive view of where our ties could go and there were some detailed discussions about the mechanisms, which could help both the countries go forward in that direction with the help of inter-governmental groups like strategic institutions, and that can be used to build that relationship. There was a constructive sense of the relationship to keep the ties on an upward trajectory.”  Clearly, in an amazing turn around, bellicose China seemed to have softened its stance. Incidentally China reiterated its interest to reengage with India and stressed on the Panchsheel directives of co-existence for “healthy, stable bilateral relations”. While it might be tempting to state that China’s conciliatory approach and positive tone, can infuse new trust into the Indo-China bilateral relationship. China’s measured approach must be carefully assessed. Currently, China’s global ambitions have taken a hit with OBOR slowly turning into a formidable debt trap for countries that signed it. India’s firm no to BRI has forced European nations to reconsider their interests in the global connectivity project. Moreover, North Korea’s nuclear test, hours before President Xi’s keynote address at Xiamen Summit, demolished the myth that China can save the World from Pyongyang’s nuclear combativeness. In 2016, causing a major embarrassment to China, DPRK tested three medium range ballistic missiles on the inaugural day of G-20 Huangzhou summit. DPRK’s war rhetoric directed against China goes on to show that all is not well between China and DPRK. China’s deteriorating relations with neighbors on long term may not augur well for its global ambitions. Perhaps, mending ties with India which is advantageous for its trade could have been its best bet. While India expertly brought back balance to its bilateral ties at Xiamen Summit, India must exercise extreme caution in treading along the road of friendship to Beijing.