The Russia-Ukraine war has turned nearly 18 months old. The Delhi Declaration did not make any direct reference to the war, except for a generic declaration for nations to respect the territorial sovereignty of nations. While the issue of the Russia -Ukraine war has been relegated to the background, the war still rages in Ukraine, in which the Wagner group is supposedly playing an important role for Russia.

23 August 2023, while Bharat was glued to Chandrayaan-3 soft landing success on the Moon, a news item claiming Prigozhin had died in a plane crash, did not make it to the headlines. A couple of months ago, 23 June 2023 was the day the group was rolling out tanks in Russia.

24 June 2023, the day was dominated by News Channels reporting about an attempted coup by a group called Wagner Group in Russia, Taking the world by surprise. As incredulous viewers around the world tried to process the news, the question everyone seemed to be asking was, what is this Wagner group? A hitherto unknown group suddenly became a household name. While the events in Russia were shrouded under ‘reported’, and ‘alleged’ and videos emerging from Moscow and Rostov showed civilians going about their daily chores, while soldiers took positions, it is pertinent to know about what the Wagner group is and its activities.

The group supposedly came into being sometime in 2014 with the support of Putin. Wagner Group is officially known as PMC Wagner, Private Military Company Wagner. For years, the company had no legal existence as Private military companies are banned in Russia. It is owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman reportedly close to Putin. After years of denying the existence of the Wagner group, in September 2022, Prigozhin admitted to having founded the Private Military Company.

Newspapers reported that it is a network of mercenaries, and prison inmates who are supplied weaponry by the Russian Army. Reports speculate that the Russian Government uses Wagner to fight its wars in Africa, Syria, Crimea and lately in Ukraine, on the principle of plausible denial.

Wagner Group has been accused of atrocities, human rights violations, widespread rapes and looting in Africa, Crimea, Syria and lately Ukraine. The casualties of the Wagner Group are not added to Russian Casualties in war and thus official figures of Russian defence forces remain low.

The main wars Wagner group is reported to have been active in are – the Crimean Crisis, Donbas (2014-2022), Syrian Civil War, South Sudanese Civil War, CAR Civil War, Second Libyan Civil War, and Sudanese Revolution. Venezuelan presidential crisis, Mali war, Russian invasion of Ukraine and of course, the 23-24 June Wagner group Rebellion.

Wagner group has always remained in the shadows and news agencies like The Economist, Al Jazeera, Wall Street Journal, and Reuters have alleged it as being planted in the areas to boost Russia’s strategic depth. Ben Brimelow, writing in Business Insider, alleged that Russia was using mercenaries to make it look like it is using fewer troops in Syria.

Defence One, reported in December 2022, that the United States National Security coordinator for Strategic Communications, John Kirby, claimed the Wagner group had 50,000 fighters in Ukraine. BBC reported that about 20,000 Russia-supporting PMC Wagner forces were active in Ukraine. On 20 April 2023, ‘Medusa reported that the Russian State Duma passed a law granting Wagner mercenaries fighting in Ukraine ‘Combat Veteran’ status.

For the last few months, Wagner Chief Prigozhin has been claiming that Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is incompetent and denied Wagner ammunition and support. Prigozhin also accused Russian top General, Valery Gerasimov of acting against Wagner Group troops.

Reuters reported that Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defence of killing about 2000 of his troops in Bakhmut through an airstrike. Prigozhin, while carefully avoiding direct criticism of Putin, continued to berate Russian Military leaders.

On Friday, 23 June, as reported by multiple news agencies including Reuters, Prigozhin released a video dismissing Putin’s justification for the Ukraine war and accusing Shoigu of going to war with Ukraine for his personal glory, not to demilitarise or denazify Ukraine.

News outlets and War Analysts treated the video as another outburst in the ongoing accusations and tensions between the Wagner group and the Russian military, but the outburst led to the scenario of an attempted ‘coup’.

Wagner group recalled its troops from the Ukraine front to Rostov-On-Don. The group claimed to have control of the military headquarters in Rostov and announced its plan to March to Moscow.

President Putin went on state TV to condemn the attempted coup. He termed the action of Prigozhin as treason and warned the troops of the Wagner group not to support this mutiny.

As the world tried to come to grips with the unfolding situation in Russia, the name of a hitherto unknown shadowy group became a household name.

The world was still coming to terms with the implications of this ‘coup’ by the Wagner Group. The future implications on the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war were being analysed, with many analysts proclaiming a setback to Russia. In the short term, the Russian military may face setbacks as Rostov is on the logistical route to Ukraine. It remains to be seen how events impact the morale of both Russian and Ukrainian troops. The events were in flux, with questions raised about- how the events would impact Putin and the future elections of Russia. The questions experts are now asking-How quickly and efficiently Putin would handle the mutiny and how deep the roots of the mutiny.

Within 24 hours of the ‘coup, it was reported that Chechnya troops, faithful to General Kadyrov were going to Rostov. Within a few hours, it was reported that Prigozhin had withdrawn the March and Wagner troops were moving back to the base. Belarus President, Lukashenko, reportedly offered refuge to Prigozhin.  Charges of treason on Prigozhin were removed and it was reported that the Wagner Troops would be offered new contracts.

In the international game of Mirrors and Shadows, lots of propaganda was floating around. The questions on the events remain, while answers are hidden under ‘reported, alleged ‘. And as suddenly the ‘coup’ started, it seemed to be over.

Bits and pieces of news of the Wagner group floated around. There were rumours that the Wagner group would be utilised to invade Poland. The Wagner group receded from news headlines, and when news about the death of Prigozhin in a plane crash surfaced, other events took precedence. Still, the question remains- has the music finally stopped for Wagner?  

Image source: EurAsian Times