The slow, unannounced and imperceptible emergence of a new strategic grouping, i.e., PAT Troika consists of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye. This trilateral represents a seismic shift in the Eurasian geopolitics with India-altering strategic implications in the long term. This Islamic coalition based on religious solidarity, geopolitical revisionism, theocratic-imperialism and military cooperation is now an organised geopolitical axis of evil that seeks to extend regional hegemony with expansionist territorial designs. As emerged in Tom Burgis's Kleptopia (2020), such coalitions tend to base themselves on illicit capital and obscured financial networks to achieve their strategic objectives through grey-zone warfare tactics. India should not underrate this de facto alignment, strategically positioning between Central Asia, Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Türkiye's modern Caliphatic aspirations stretch beyond its conventional areas of interest and influence to include strategic and maritime belligerence and power projection in the Indian subcontinent and the IOR. This illustrates what international relations researchers refer to as power fungibility, where military capability, economic influence, and ideological communication are exchanged to serve national interests.

Türkiye's naval diplomacy, expressed in doctrines such as "Blue Homeland" and increased defense exports, has enabled it to deepen relations with Pakistan and project influence toward South Asia (aka Indian Subcontinent) (Cannon & Saha, 2024). It was obvious that post Pahalgam terror attacks and during the Operation Sindoor, Türkiye was continuously supplying drones and other ammunitions to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan both by massive airlifts and by its maritime naval assets.

The Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan have exhibited growing doctrinal unity across both military and diplomatic fronts. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan has also purchased MILGEM-class warships from Türkiye, and the two countries continue to hold regular joint military drills like AMAN, which indicates increased interoperability. Azerbaijan, emboldened by its defeat of Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh War with the help of Türkiye, has sided with Ankara and Islamabad based on religious solidarity: the two who support Baku's position regionally and internationally. Azerbaijan has strongly disapproved of India's increasing military ties with Armenia. Azerbaijan has also condemned India's military operations against terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). This triad currently reflects a multiple-sum game approach, in which all actors use benefits not individually but through a common strategic calculation (Salahuddin, 2025).

The PAT axis is also strengthening diplomatic coordination on disputed issues such as Jammu & Kashmir. Türkiye has consistently brought Jammu & Kashmir to the UN General Assembly and OIC (Organization of Islamic Countries) platforms over the years, sometimes taking a stance in accordance with Pakistan's account. As early as 1994, former Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto and then Turkish PM Tansu Ciller had jointly visited Sarajevo, Bosnia & Herzegovina and synchronised their geopolitical solidarity with the Bosnian statelet.

Türkiye (along with China) was at the forefront of countries that vehemently opposed India’s membership into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) on behest of the Islamic Republic of   Pakistan. More recently, Azerbaijan has also seconded this anti-India voice in numerous bilateral pronouncements. This ideological alignment is furthered by Türkiye's alignment under its current Islamist strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan towards a neo-Ottoman Caliphatic identity, discarding Atatürk's vision of secularism in favour of Islamic revivalism, which finds traction in segments of the Islamic world (Rao, 2024). Türkiye is in a fierce competition with both the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for taking over the leadership of the OIC.

Maritally, Türkiye's increasing naval cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and engagement with Indian Ocean littoral states especially with Maldives presents direct competition to India's SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative. Experts foresee that integrated naval modernisation of Türkiye, Pakistan, and China could yield a powerful maritime axis by 2040, potentially deploying more than 80 submarines, aircraft carriers, and hundreds of surface warships (Mishra, 2025). The integration of Turkish warfighting systems and Chinese missile capabilities on Pakistani warships illustrates this phenomenon. This not only presents a tactical problem but a strategic one: India must rethink its maritime strategy in response.

India needs to embrace doctrinal convergence in foreign, defence, and economic policy to confront the PAT Troika, which is India-specific and theocratic. This involves strengthening alliances with Armenia, Iran, Greece, Georgia, and Cyprus —countries that resist the PAT agenda — and stepping up interaction within regional associations, such as IORA and INSTC. India should utilise monetary instruments, such as investment controls, trade diplomacy, and financial monitoring, to establish deterrence against hostile geo-economic alignments. India remains a significant trading partner for Azerbaijan, with bilateral trade reaching $1.44 billion in 2023. Some Indian travel platforms have discouraged travel to Azerbaijan, leading to cancellations and impacting the tourism sector. Despite India’s desire for diversification of its energy supplies, there has been a squeeze on imports from Azerbaijan.

By 2024, India's crude oil imports from Azerbaijan decreased to $733.09 million. Notwithstanding this decline, Azerbaijan continues to remain an important supplier in India's diversified energy import strategy. India could leverage this issue to get diplomatic concessions from Azerbaijan.

The observations of Amitabh Singh (2025) also reinforce the need for recalibrating India's strategy. He advocates recognising the Armenian genocide publicly, utilising diaspora diplomacy, and increasing West Asian influence to push back against Türkiye's ideological agenda. Following Azerbaijan's support for Pakistan, there have been calls for boycotts of Azerbaijani goods and tourism in India.

India is a major source of tourists for Azerbaijan, with a rapid rise in arrivals. In this context, India needs to realise that the PAT axis is not just a trilateral convenience: it is an orchestrated coming together designed to undermine India's regional influence through hard and soft power instruments. The long-term aim involves not just the containment of India but the dismemberment of India.

India's long-term strategic response must be multi-layered, multidimensional and multidomain. Diplomatically, this involves unmasking the PAT alignment's revisionist objectives in multilateral settings. Militarily, India needs to speed up naval modernisation, enhance maritime domain awareness, and deepen engagement with Indo-Pacific allies. Economically, a systematic monetarist strategy must aim at making adversarial actors incur a strategic cost. Most importantly, India must shift from policy-oriented reaction to proactive strategy-based anticipation, informed by IR concepts like power fungibility, multiple-sum engagement and active deterrence.

References

Burgis, T. (2020). Kleptopia: How dirty money is conquering the world. HarperCollins.

Cannon, B. J., & Saha, R. (2024, April 18). Answering big questions about Türkiye in the Indian Ocean. Observer Research Foundation.

Government of India. (2022). The new world: 21st-century global order and India. Ministry of External Affairs.

Mishra, A. (2025, June 1). India readies to face 2040 naval threat as Pak-China-Turkey axis emerges. The Sunday Guardian.

Rao, S. (2024, May). Turkey’s quiet rise in Indian Ocean alarms New Delhi. ThePrint.

Salahuddin, A. (2025, May 27). Brothers in arms: Türkiye naval and diplomatic unity with Pakistan amid crisis. The Diplomatic Insight.

Shah, R., & Xiaolin, M. (2024). The impact of Pakistan–Turkey maritime cooperation on South Asia’s strategic stability. Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs, 16(2), 85–101, https://doi.org/10.1080/18366503.2024.2343194