In May 2012, India and Russia finally signed a deal for the co-development and subsequent production of a completely new transport aircraft that would be operated by both countries. This deal was a result of much deliberation through the late 1900s and early part of the 2000s which saw multiple joint ventures being proposed with Russia including that of the FGFA fifth-generation aircraft and the very successful Brahmos missile venture.

This was to be a medium transport aircraft capable of lifting a payload of around 20 tons with a range of 6000 km. The Indian Air Force planned to acquire some 45 aircraft of this type while the Russians would acquire 100 units. The Jet was christened the MTA or Ilyushin IL-214 as per the plan in 2012, they would enter the service by 2019.

As with many such good plans, this too went to waste with the partnership almost unsalvageable by 2016. The Indian Air Force wasn’t happy with the selection of the PD-14M turbofan engines and some other design decisions taken by the Russians. Also, India wanted the MTA to operate in higher altitudes than the Russian design would allow. For their part the Russians wanted India to increase the program development budget, something that India vehemently opposed. These differences would see the entire program shelved in 2017. Shortly, after the MTA program was shelved the Indian Air Force started negotiations with Airbus on the purchase of 56 Airbus C-295 transport aircraft.

The MTA requirement is often incorrectly understood to be that of an An-32 replacement, this in turn raises questions on why the now signed and implemented C-295 line cannot be utilized to produce more aircraft to replace the An-32. While the C-295 may well go on to replace the An-32 the MTA requirement is rather different. The Indian Air Force operated the An-12 as a 20T airlift aircraft between 1961-1993 with some 65 aircraft serving. Once the An-12 was retired the IAF had a capability gap because while it had hundreds of HS-748, An-32 & Dorniers for lifts below ten tonnes and 17 massive Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft for lifts that weighed around 40 tonnes it had no aircraft to bridge the crucial 15-30T gap in an economical manner.

The Medium Transport Aircraft was envisaged to fill this crucial capability gap and provide a fit-to-order capability that would let the Indian Air force use its transport fleet much more economically.  In the years, post-2010 would see this capability gap was reduced to an extent as 12 Lockheed Martin C-130J aircraft were acquired primarily to support India’s special operations requirements but given their payload capacities of 20T they also fill the MTA requirement to an extent now. 

One must also understand that Airlift load requirements are increasing as the Indian military modernises. While the An-32 sufficed to lift unarmored jeeps and Gypsies to the frontline, the freighters of tomorrow will have to have the capability to lift armored 4x4 & 8x8 platforms that will be far heavier. Similarly, a single 105mm Shell weighs around 20 kgs each 155mm shell around 45kgs, the recent conflict in Ukraine shows how artillery shells are used up by the thousands every day. 

A lift of only 5,000 shells daily would weigh 225 tonnes and need 25 odd flights by C-295 sized aircraft or 10 flights by a KC-390-sized lifter underlining the need for large freighters that are small enough to land and operate from frontline airfields. It was keeping all the above in mind, that the Indian Air force released a new RFI for the MTA requirement in December 2022. This RFI asked manufacturers to quote rough order of magnitude costs for a batch of 40/60 or 80 aircraft with the technical specs calling for an airlift capable of lifting a payload between 18-30T and with the capability to operate from rough airfields.

The Indian Air force will be closing bids for the MTA on 31st March 2023 on a date publicly available information indicates that three manufacturers have thrown their hats into the MTA ring. The American firm Lockheed Martin with the tried and tested grizzled warrior C-130J, the Brazilian aviation giant Embraer with its much-feted and spanking new KC-390, and the Russian UAC with the Ilyushin IL-276 which in some form of macabre comedy is the finally developed a variant of the stillborn IL-214 originally conceived by HAL and UAC. The C-130J has a lot going for it, it’s already in service with the Indian Air force and hence already has a maintenance setup ready in the country with trained technicians and trained aircrew. 

The C-130J is also an aircraft that offers as many as 18 variants from a gunship to a civilian air freight variant and a tanker that can conceivably be produced should any sort of manufacturing facility come to India. The biggest opportunity for India here though is to become an important part of a C-130 ecosystem that has supplied over 2500 aircraft so far, a small slice of this opportunity is already in the works with Lockheed announcing a Heavy MRO in India that can become the sole service center in Asia for hundreds of C-130 aircraft used by operators across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The above said and done there is one major problem with the C-130, its age. 

The base C-130 first flew in the 1960s and while the C-130J is today a modern-day epitome of that base design there’s only so much that the base design could achieve. In 2010, the US air force declared it would be replacing the C-130 and shutting down production in 2029. A completely new aircraft called the “speed agile concept” is being developed in a competition between Boeing and Lockheed that will replace the C-130 beginning in 2030 and will carry 190% of the load at a similar cost. It could be foolhardy to tie the IAF down to a design on its way out. The silver lining here could be the prospect of getting the C-130 manufacturing facilities shifted to India where we could continue to manufacture the aircraft as long as it continues to be in demand.

The Brazilian KC-390 which started deliveries in 2019 is a newbie compared to the C-130 with less than a hundred delivered to date. That said it is in many ways a transport aircraft that incorporates the best of technologies available today and has been designed by Embraer to replace the C-130 as the outside option for air forces globally as the venerable old freighter is phased out. The KC-390 consequently is 15% faster, carries 18% greater cargo, and costs some 41% less than a C-130 in terms of the purchase cost. That technological prowess is tempered by the reality that in terms of real geopolitical weight and alliances Brazil has very little to offer compared to the USA, additionally, the lure of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of potential business already exists in the case of the C-130, the KC-390 has a lot of promise but little to show for it in real number terms as on date. 

The allure of the KC-390 lies in the possibility that HAL could possibly build a joint venture partnership with Embraer over the jet and become the major manufacturing base for a technologically advanced aircraft that may well become an “independent” alternative to the western bloc C-130 or its Russian or Chinese competition early on! Embraer also has one trump card which Lockheed Martin does not have. It can dovetail an offer to manufacture 100-150 passenger regional jet aircraft from its E-175/190 series in India should the IAF select the KC-390, these regional jets have military implications as well and can be modified to serve as ELINT, COMINT, ISTAR, MPA and AEW&C platforms which along with the Tanker + freighter versions of the KC-390 can give India a complete military support aircraft ecosystem within the country. India could also use a partnership with Embraer to build inroads into the Latin American defense markets and work with Embraer to manufacture, and sell the ALH, LCH, IMRH, LCA in Latin America while manufacturing, acquiring and marketing the KC-390, E-190, etc here in Asia.

The Ilyushin IL-276 will in all likelihood come with a similar manufacturing plan as Embraer with HAL becoming the Indian partner in any manufacturing venture. That said this option is likely to run into significant headwinds vis a vis sanctions on Russia in the wake of the Ukraine conflict. Also, the IAF has had a less than satisfactory experience with Russian Engines and will likely insist on modification of the jet with western engines which will again be a very problematic affair as long as the sanctions continue. It is highly unlikely we will see the IL-276 selected as long as current geopolitical troubles with Russia continue.

The MTA project is one that holds great promise for India and will likely see a third large aircraft manufacturing facility built here should New Delhi play its cards correctly. Building a Turbofan-powered large aircraft will again be a significant technological upgrade from the Turboprop Dornier Do-228 or even the C-295. The Indian Air Force requirement is only the beginning. New Delhi needs to approach this requirement with a long-term perspective plan in mind that sees India using the MTA requirement to build itself a Public and private Large jet manufacturing ecosystem along with the capabilities for leveraging the same to leapfrog into the select list of countries that manufacture and sell large transport jets globally to both the military and civil market.

Image source: TimesNow