North-East Poll Battle Early 2023: An Analysis
- In Politics
- 03:24 PM, Aug 03, 2022
- Ankita Dutta
The spectacular victory of the BJP in the last Manipur Legislative Assembly elections of 2022 reflected a clear and decisive mandate by voters in the state for development and political stability. With its assertion to make a ‘Congress Mukt (free) North-Eastern region’, the BJP has been trying to consolidate its position in all the North-Eastern states. The outcome of the Manipur Assembly polls of 2022 has already shown a welcome trend of voters in North-East India, judging the parties on the basis of their performance and not attaching much importance to rhetoric and political bravado.
The Congress Party, which once dominated seven of the eight states in the North-East, has no MLAs at present in Meghalaya, Tripura, and Nagaland, where Assembly elections are due in less than a year. With the passage of time, the BJP has emerged afresh in setting well-calculated agendas and establishing contacts with new voters. On the contrary, the Congress Party’s tipping point in the North-East has already reached. It failed devastatingly to wrest back Manipur from the BJP. On the other hand, the BJP, for the first time, was able to secure on its own an absolute majority in Manipur after Assam.
Several political observers in the North-East considered the Manipur Assembly polls of 2022 as the defining polls which are going to play a crucial role in finding a solution to the vexed Naga problem and thereby shaping the political profile of this region at least till the end of this decade. Thus, the BJP has, by now, indelibly imprinted itself onto the political space of the North East. This is going to have a significant impact on the forthcoming Assembly elections in Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Tripura early next year.
In Tripura, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has emerged as a formidable force. The Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (TIPRA Motha), which is the ruling party in the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC), had already announced that it would contest 35 seats in the 2023 Assembly elections, unless the Centre agrees, in writing, to its demand for a separate state of ‘Greater Tipraland’ for the indigenous people of Tripura. This was announced at a mega rally organised by the TIPRA Motha under the leadership of its chairman and royal scion Pradyot Kishore Debbarma on March 13, 2022 in Agartala to press for ‘Greater Tipraland’.
Debbarma has several times in the past, called upon all tribal-based political parties of Tripura to unite with the objective of fulfilling the demand for a ‘Greater Tipraland’. The TTAADC constitutes two-thirds of the state’s territory which is home to several vanavasi communities, who constitute almost one-third of Tripura’s four million population. Although the TIPRA Motha’s demand for a ‘Greater Tipraland’ has remained vague among a cross-section of the people, the slogan is largely attractive to the minority vanavasi communities residing in Tripura.
This demand was raised a few years back after the ruling BJP’s ally – the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) – received massive support from the indigenous communities. Ahead of the 2018 Assembly elections in Tripura, the IPFT vociferously demanded a separate state of ‘Tipraland’ for the tribals of Tripura, upgrading the existing TTAADC. In fact, ‘Greater Tipraland’ is an extension of the IPFT’s demand for ‘Tipraland’, a separate state for tribals by carving out the TTAADC area. It may be mentioned here that the politically important TTAADC exercises jurisdiction on over two-thirds of Tripura’s 10,491 sq. km area and is home to over 12,16,000 people, of which around 84% are tribals.
Focusing on the issue of ‘Tipraland’ in the 2018 Assembly polls, the IPFT was able to secure 8 of the 20 tribal reserved seats, which had been the strongholds of the CPI (M) over the past several decades. In April last year, the TIPRA Motha successfully captured the politically powerful TTAADC, in a direct contest with the ruling BJP-IPFT alliance. As a result, the political significance of the new party in Tripura has been further reinforced. Defeating the BJP and the CPI (M) both, the TIPRA Motha scripted history by sweeping the TTAADC elections held in April 2021, winning 18 of the 28 seats over the ‘Greater Tipraland’ demand. The TTAADC is considered to be the mini-legislative Assembly of Tripura.
Undoubtedly, the TIPRA Motha has emerged as a serious contender for power in the politics of Tripura. While explaining their ‘Greater Tipraland’ demand, TIPRA leaders are of the opinion that under the concept, they seek to improve the socio-economic conditions of the backward tribal population living in the North-East, as well as neighbouring Bangladesh, Myanmar, and a few adjoining areas. Hence, the proposed ‘Greater Tipraland’ demand of the TIPRA Motha would include the tribal majority areas of not only Tripura, but also Assam, Mizoram, and as well as the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh.
Although the BJP, CPI (M), and the Congress are strongly opposed to the IPFT’s ‘Tipraland’ demand on the ground that it is “separatist” and “divisive”, no political party has officially said anything against the demand for a ‘Greater Tipraland’ yet, apprehending the loss of tribal support in the next year’s elections. In the words of Tripura Tribal Welfare Minister Mevar Kumar Jamatiya, who also happens to be the General Secretary of the IPFT, “Majority of the indigenous youths of Tripura support the demand for a separate state due to disparity in the development of the tribal-inhabited lands in the hills on the one hand and the plains inhabited by the Bengali-speaking people on the other.” (The Sentinel March 28, 2022).
However, it may be mentioned here that after the BJP-IPFT alliance came to power in Tripura, many development initiatives have been undertaken by the Government. In fact, for the first time, the Centre sanctioned a special package of Rs. 1,300 crores for infrastructure development with respect to better roads, hospitals, education and drinking water, etc. for the indigenous people. It may be recalled here that the CPM-led Left Front ruled the state for a long period of 35 years, and the Congress Party was in power for 30 years. But both these parties colossally failed to pay heed to the all-around development and welfare of the tribal population of Tripura.
News reports had been circulating a few weeks back that there is a possibility of the IPFT merging or allying with the TIPRA Motha before the 2023 Assembly elections. Both the parties want the Centre to discuss their demands but have not received any response so far. In the 60-member Tripura Legislative Assembly, the demand for a separate state may influence the results in 20 seats where the tribal population holds considerable sway. In a significant political development, it was on March 28 that the Lok Sabha passed the Constitution (Scheduled Tribes) Order (Amendment) Bill, 2022, which seeks to amend the Constitution (Scheduled Tribes) Order, 1950, for the inclusion of Tripura’s Darlong community as a sub-tribe of the Kuki community in the list of Scheduled Tribes.
On April 6, 2022, the Rajya Sabha passed the Constitution (Scheduled Tribes) Order (Amendment) Bill, 2022 which is aimed at including the Darlong community of Tripura at par with the Kuki tribe in the list of Scheduled Tribes. This will allow the community to avail the benefits being given to STs in the country. It needs to be mentioned here that around 11,000 people belonging to the Darlong community are living in Tripura at present. They have made considerable progress in education, cultural activities, and administrative representation. Rosem maestro Thanga Darlong has conferred the Padma Shri for his extensive contribution to the field of culture a few years ago.
In Tripura, there are 19 tribes under the nomenclatures of Tripuri (Debbarma), Reang, Jamatia, Noatia, Uchoi, Chakma, Mog, Lushai, Kuki, Halam, Munda, Kour, Oram, Santhal, Bhil, Bhutia, Chaimol, Garo, Khasi, and Lepcha. Earlier, the Darlong community had been included under the generic group of ‘Halam’. But, after the passage of the above-mentioned Bill in the Parliament, they would now have a distinct identity as a community belonging to the sub-tribe under the generic group of the Kukis.
Coming to Nagaland, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), comprising of the BJP, besides the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), the Naga People’s Front (NPF), and an Independent, is running what several news outlets have referred to as an ‘Opposition-less Government’ in the state. The NDPP-BJP alliance was formed in the year 2018 under the leadership of PM Modi and the then National BJP President Amit Shah. A few days back, the NDPP and the BJP had issued a joint statement in which the leadership of the two parties had mutually agreed to continue the alliance with seat sharing of 40:20 in the forthcoming elections to the Nagaland Legislative Assembly, wherein the NDPP will contest in 40 seats and the BJP in 20 seats.
As mentioned in the statement, there will be no “friendly contest” in any constituency. A Core Committee of both parties will soon formulate the election strategy to decide the respective seats from which each party will contest. Shrinkage of the AFSPA-promulgated areas in the state of Nagaland by the Government of India on March 31, 2022, is definitely going to have an impact on the overall poll outcomes. However, rushing to any conclusion that internal security threats in the North-East have reduced significantly, will be erroneous. It is because artificially-manufactured fault lines of tribe and ethnicity still remain exposed due to the never-ending armed ethnic insurgency in many areas of the region.
Increasing the capacities of both the Central and State Police forces in the North-Eastern states to deal with the insurgency is critical to achieving the desired goal of complete withdrawal of the AFSPA from the entire region. Hence, equipping the State Police forces to handle counter-insurgency operations on their own and seeking the aid of the Central Police forces, if required, must now be the topmost priority. It is extremely important to ensure that both the State and the Central Police forces, tasked to deal with the insurgency in the North-East, are not caught on the wrong foot due to complacency arising over the reduction in the number of areas under AFSPA.
Hence, the State Police forces must utilise the transition period from partial withdrawal to complete withdrawal of the AFSPA to fully equip themselves for dealing with any threat of insurgency. This is also going to determine the pace of total or complete withdrawal of the Act from the region. Lessons must be learnt from previous instances of “botched” military operations leading to the violation of the basic human rights of innocent civilians under AFSPA so that these episodes do not recur again. Better coordination among the State and Central Police forces through the use of technology and intelligence sharing will be vital to thwart attempts by any new group in spearheading insurgency and proliferation of small arms and drugs trade in the region.
Fast-tracking the ongoing peace process with different armed groups and inking peace accords is crucial for sustaining the momentum of peace, especially in those areas where such accords have already been signed and militants have laid down illegal arms. State Governments leveraging these accords and the subsequent reduction of the number of areas/districts under AFSPA to attract investments is certainly going to harbour a positive mindset for promoting economic growth and development of the region. Timely implementation of all clauses of the peace accords and uncompromising commitment to peace will not only help build the trust of the common people in the peace process but also encourage more insurgent outfits to come forward for negotiations.
In this context, swift resolution of the inter-state boundary disputes among the different states of the North-East is also of crucial importance. This will deny extremist elements from taking any advantage of the murky situation of law and order enforcement in the disputed areas and then using these areas as launch pads for their hit-and-run and extortion activities. Non-resolution of the Naga conflict and Assam-Nagaland boundaries has been largely responsible for keeping alive insurgent activities along these areas, including in those districts of Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh which share a border with Nagaland and as well as Myanmar. This, in part, explains the continuation of the AFSPA in parts of Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, and Arunachal Pradesh.
In Meghalaya, implementation of the Inner Line Permit (ILP) has become one of the major demands in the run-up to the Assembly polls early next year. It was on December 19, 2019, that the Meghalaya Legislative Assembly unanimously passed a resolution urging the Centre to implement ILP in the state. The State Government of Meghalaya had also submitted a memorandum on the matter to Union Home Minister Amit Shah during his visit to Shillong on January 23 last year. Interestingly, it is the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) that has been expanding its base in Meghalaya as a major Opposition Party. It was on March 26, 2020, that the TMC formed a 15-member block committee at Pynursla in the East Khasi Hills district of Meghalaya.
It may be mentioned here that Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma’s father, P.A. Sangma, who had also been the former Chief Minister of the state, was an elected MP from the TMC. The Congress Party’s downhill slide continues in Meghalaya with the entire block members of the Rambrai-Jyrngam constituency in the West Khasi Hills district together with its member Bajop Pyngrope of the Khasi Hills Autonomous District Council (KHADC) resigning en-masse on March 28, 2022. These members formed the core of the Party in the constituency, with Bajop Pyngrope also having served as the Treasurer of the Block Congress Committee.
Such en-masse resignations have weakened the Congress Party to an extent that it is now finding it hard to fill the vacuum. The Party is currently undertaking the process of reorganizing the block Congress Committees in the five constituencies whose legislators, in February 2022, decided to align themselves with the NPP-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) Government, which also has the BJP as its partner. But, with continuous desertions, the Congress Party is in a dilemma regarding the Assembly elections of 2023.
The ruling Nationalist People’s Party (NPP) is in the driver’s seat at the moment and most of the defectors are joining the party. Political commentators and analysts have observed that on the one hand, the regional political parties, which are now ruling Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Sikkim, are consolidating their positions at the cost of the Congress. On the other hand, the grand old party’s political base is shrinking due to a weak organizational structure and leadership crisis at both the State and the Central levels.
Precisely because of the broad political platform that it offered; the Congress Party once governed the region almost unchallenged. But, over the years, when region-centric issues began to dominate the politics of the North-East, the regional parties emerged strongly. The BJP, aided by the RSS, slowly began capturing a part of the political space, gradually pushing the Congress away from the main political spectrum. The central Congress leaders’ indifferent attitude towards the North-East and their visionless politics eventually made the party a non-entity in the political arena of the region. Even as hundreds of serious issues always kept plaguing the region, both the Central and State Congress leaders were visible only before the elections.
Ahead of the Assembly elections in three North-Eastern states early next year and Mizoram in November-December 2023, the prospects of the Congress appear to be rather bleak. The party’s representation in the Upper House of the Parliament from the politically important North-Eastern region is nil. Out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the eight North-Eastern states, the highest number of 14 seats is with the BJP, while only 4 seats belong to the Congress and 1 is held by the Maulana Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).
At present, except in Assam, Congress is not even an Opposition Party in the remaining seven North-Eastern states. When their organizational strength began to gradually decline, the Central and State leadership remained indifferent to the party’s future plans. People in the North-Eastern region of India have overwhelmingly supported the Congress for many years. But over the past several years, the Party’s strength in all aspects has declined, clearly reflected in the electoral outcomes in each of the states.
Although India’s North-East consists of only 8% of the country’s total geographical area and 4% of its population, its strategic importance is very significant from the point of view of the country’s national security. The region is home to 45.58 million people (2011 Census) and shares borders with China, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Nepal. Central leaders of the Congress Party are responsible to a large extent for the party’s near non-existence in the region. The Party appointed junior and inexperienced leaders as State in-charges in the North-East, leading to ineffective State organizations.
Of the 45.58 million population in the 8 North-Eastern states, around 28% are vanavasis, who are the overwhelming majority in Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh. While people belonging to Hindu, Muslim, and Christian communities in the North-East have always been supportive of the Congress; but, during the last few decades, the Party has largely distanced itself from all vanavasi and non-vanavasi communities, leading to the further erosion of its support base.
There is a commonly-held perception that the North-Eastern states eventually align with the political forces occupying the reins of power at the Centre. However, this is both factually and historically incorrect. Tarun Gogoi became the Chief Minister of Assam from the Congress Party in the elections of 2001 when the BJP was in power at the Centre. Similarly, in 2002, in Manipur, Okram Ibobi Singh wrested power from an alliance of local political parties backed by a couple of BJP MLAs. Again, the Centre could not come to their rescue.
The social and political complexities of the North-East as a region cannot fit into one straightjacket with straightforward conclusions. This is exactly what the BJP-led NEDA has understood very well. Both the Central and the State units of the party have come to appreciate the vast nuances underlying the politics of the region. They have therefore put in extra efforts to respect local interests and local sentiments in decision-making. Compared to the Congress Party, within a short span of the BJP’s emergence in the North-East, it has exhibited the much-required deft and political maturity in handling the complex socio-political issues plaguing the region.
Undoubtedly, the impressive ground-level work of organizations such as the Akhil Bharatiya Vanavasi Kalyan over a period of several years has played a very important role in facilitating this upward flight of the BJP in one of the most strategically-located sensitive border regions of this country. The rise of the BJP in the North-East has proceeded simultaneously with the near-to-complete decimation of the Congress Party, driving home the inexorable truth that the leadership of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi has not been able to stem the BJP tide.
However, the BJP leadership needs to be aware of the transient nature of political fortunes and the sea-saw pattern these tend to assume. The steady decline of the Indian National Congress, which had ruled the roost after Independence in most parts of India including the North-East, points to the impermanence of political fortunes. Given a viable alternative, the Indian masses might not forever back the BJP. With respect to the North-East, the inability of the BJP to address many of the existential civilizational threats that continue to plague the region should be noted by the party leadership.
Retaining political power depends upon several factors, especially in a region like the North-East where numerous groups and communities of people have a history of being mired in unending conflicts led by several militant insurgent outfits. However, in terms of development and economic progress, the BJP Government at the Centre has been at the forefront in fast-tracking several long-pending developmental projects in the region. Be it tourism, civil aviation, agriculture, and horticulture, all these sectors have witnessed significant transformation after 2014.
However, peace and stability in neighbouring Myanmar are vital for ensuring long-term peace and development in the region. The Central Governments, State Governments, and people need to mount pressure on the insurgent groups to shun the path of violence and return to the mainstream. Only then can the potential of trans-border connectivity projects be tapped optimally. Myanmar ensuring that insurgent outfits of the North-East are not allowed to take shelter in its soil is very important to bring the rebel groups to the negotiating table.
Restoration of democracy in Myanmar will determine, to a large extent, the progress of the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and as well as the Trans-Asian Railway Connectivity Project between India and Myanmar. There are several reports of insurgent groups of the region trying to regroup and consolidate again, as they have always been doing before the elections in the previous years as well. In such a situation, both the Central and the State Governments are bound by a constitutional obligation to protect the lives and properties of ordinary citizens.
Hence, the deployment of the Armed forces becomes a necessity since the state police forces are incapable of dealing with the situation on their own. Settlement of the Naga peace talks in a time-bound manner and settlement of the demands of the Kuki militant outfits must now be the primary responsibility of the Central Government. India must continuously remain engaged with Myanmar on these issues. It is crucial for the North-Eastern region to realize its long-harboured dream of deriving benefits from trans-border connectivity.
But the progress of such developments depends, to a large extent, on the law-and-order situation of each of the states in this region. Considering the fact that three decades have already elapsed since India adopted the Look East Policy which subsequently gained momentum with the adoption of the Act East Policy, it is time now for the Central Government to pay more attention to expediting the execution of the pending infrastructure and connectivity projects.
Image source: EastMojo
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