In the era of technology in general and AI in particular, where people are glued to the wonders of digital feats, Parag Khanna is drawing our attention to the fact that even today, geography matters the most. The book explores the theme that compelling global forces will cause billions of us to move geographically, over the next few decades, leading to change in the way our borders are defined on a world map.

Geography defines and demarcates maps; maps have psychological power. As students, we were taught to master the world map and earn full marks on that section. For a traditionally trained mind, it will be a new idea to see the world map as an ever-changing entity. In this book, the author argues that maps are a dynamic entity. This is because human mobility and connectivity are destiny. The author’s inspiration behind exploring this thought lies in Dr. Charles Pritle’s proposition that the world map is an ever-evolving collision of environment, politics, technology, and demographics.

To begin with, Parag points out that there is no stability in the relationship among our geographic layers such as nature (water, energy, mineral, and food resources), politics (territorial borders), and economics (infrastructure and industries). Population growth, urbanization, and industrialization have contributed to rising sea levels; this has disturbed the growing population of its coastal megacities on the Pacific Rim and the Indian Ocean and forced people to explore across borders for better living opportunities. In his first chapter, “Mobility is Destiny” he sums up, “We push the system, then the system pushes us.” (pg.3) Because of this imbalance of geographic layers, countries across North America and Europe have billions of aging people on one hand and billions of young people sitting idle in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia, on the other!

The mutual exchange of people, goods, services, capital, and technology enhances connectivity and causes mobility. To put it in the author’s words, “Mass migrations are inevitable, and more than ever, they are necessary.” (pg.4) Parag points out that in the coming time, people might be forced to leave over-populated regions and might want to explore some uninhabited regions.

Mexicans or Latinos in America, member countries of the European Union, Southeast, China and India have been witnessing continuous migration, despite all resistance. The largest flow of people in the world is within these organic regions. For example, the former Soviet Union has a huge migrant population of 25 million people, around 20 million Latinos have moved around North and Central America, 15 million South Asians have moved to Gulf countries, 15 million Sub-Saharan Africans within Africa, 12 million EU citizens within the EU, 10 million have moved from Eastern to Western Europe, making migration a worldwide phenomenon.

People are constantly looking to move to better avenues for different reasons. Be it a pandemic, drought, climate change or other natural disasters, human-generated economic or social reasons, migration can be seen as a single common factor.  “People are ditching “red zones” with inadequate health care for “green zones” with better medical systems and “blue zones” offering greater climate resilience. “We are all in search of the right combination of latitude and longitude.” (pg.16)

The author also discusses the issue of migration in the context of immigration. In general, while countries are open to move goods and capital, they resist the movement of people. He rightly puts that “Migration is one of the primary and most sensitive arenas of sovereignty: controlling who comes in and out of one’s territory.” (pg.12) Only the receiving countries decide if they allow other country residents to come in or not. Countries have strict policies for asylum seekers and chain migrants in different ways. The US, Australia, Italy, and some other countries have followed different ways to restrict migration.

This is specifically true for the younger generation in Asia. In his 9^th chapter “The Asians are Coming” Parag says that with the ever-rising Asian population being five times larger than the US and European Union combined, it will be an economic advantage in the decades to come. China and India each have more millennials (Gen-Y) than America or Europe has the total number of people. “Asians will be in ever higher demand worldwide.” Geopolitically, the world is turning brown because many Indians are moving to different parts of the world, along with Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. The author argues that countries like India with growing numbers of younger populations have higher chances to thrive in the years to come as they have many more educated and hardworking youth ready to go abroad. Young women will be much more in need globally as nurses and household workers; hence this migration is going to even more strongly and will be unstoppable.

The second chapter, “The War for Young Talent” discusses an interesting possibility that by 2045 the world population will reach its peak but will begin declining thereafter as several countries are constantly prompted to curb their fertility rates. Currently, there are about 8 billion of us and will never make it to 9 billion on Earth! One reason behind this plummet is the postmaterialist value of saving the environment and not burdening it with too many consumers.

It is notable that Gen-Z is far more deeply concerned with civilizational survival than with having children. Parag Khanna logically states, “A popular infographic circulating online shows that having one less child would save more CO2 emissions than not having a car, avoiding long-haul flights, and shifting to a plant-based diet combined.” To corroborate the thesis of future decline in population, he gives an example of Japan. Although life expectancy for Japanese has reached 107 years, “but the country is losing a net of five hundred thousand per year from its current population of 125 million.” (pg.36)

Another interesting proposition given in the book is that developed countries like the USA, which has been opposing immigration, need to assess logically the needs of people and should be welcoming immigrants. The immigration policy must be “guided by supply and demand rather than ideology.” (pg. 37) Keeping in view the large shortage of labour due to the declining young population in these countries, they are being losers by having a hostile immigrant policy. Immigration is an economic stimulus, much needed for the growth of countries like the USA. Highly efficient immigrants “contribute more to the tax base than the native-born themselves.” (pg.38)

At this time America needs a massive infrastructural overhaul. It is advised to not only allow more immigrants to contribute with their skills but also provide the country with a solid consumer market for its economic growth. Cash-rich migrants to America are adding value to the country, not being a threat in any way. America’s erratic immigration policy needs to understand how the immigrants have fueled their property markets. The UK, Canada, and Australia have been wise enough to welcome their immigrants with their student visa policies. Offering hassle-free migration to young talents will work in their favour.

The world is moving, and immigration can have a beneficial impact on some countries; however, there is more to it which is quite scary. Emigration is another visible trend in Europe, which in the long run is going to be devastating for the countries. Populist leaders believe in making their countries great by sealing the possibility of external influence and influx but what about those citizens who are moving out from their own countries for better opportunities elsewhere? For instance, Italy, Romania, and Bulgaria are some of the most rapidly depopulating countries in the world. This issue of losing one’s more capable citizens is going to further cripple the original country’s economy.

The author rightly says that such emigrants value the privilege of mobility more than the right to vote in their own countries. “Mobility is a higher virtue than belonging- especially if your country’s leaders espouse archaic social attitudes.” (pg. 46)

Currently, when we see nationalism and populist ideologies are gaining ground, the author is drawing our attention to the youth moving to other countries for better opportunities. Parag says, “For most people, migration, not nationalisms is liberation.” (pg.47) Those pioneering nationalist trumpeters today have one foot in the grave, and the new trend of moving out anywhere in the world for better opportunities, in the coming years, will be a sought-after pursuit.

The author even goes one step further when he says that not only the idea of nationalism is overrated, but religion too is not getting any stronger for one’s identity. “What nationalism and religion hold in common is that for most people they are spectator sports- and most people actually devote far more time to actual sports”. (pg. 60) This is one reason why more young Arabs have moved to Malaysia and Indonesia where they can live more freely as practicing Muslims with more freedom and less oppression. The author does not hesitate to call religion a weak geo-political agent stating that Palestinians today have received sympathy but not enough needed support from their fellow Arab Muslims, encouraging more Palestinians to move out for survival.

Where religious and nationalists bonds are weakening for youth on a global level, millennials and Gen-Z are emerging with a common mindset to seek more and more mobility, connectivity, and sustainability throughout the world. This attitude is trending on a global level among billions of youths like never before in the history of mankind. The author tersely puts it, “The great divide in the world is therefore not East versus West or North versus South but young versus old.” (pg. 64)

The author claims that in his research and workshops conducted by him he has found that for today’s youth, geopolitical rivalry is irrelevant, financial capitalism hateful and electoral democracy nonessential. Even the old trends of valuing home ownership, marriage and college education are diminishing for them. The only thing they seem to value is their own ‘portable skill’.

For GenZ, the idea of stability is quite elusive; they don’t believe in having children and are less interested in settling in one place for life. Perhaps they are more enchanted by the thought of becoming a ‘global citizen’ looking beyond their borders. The author also discusses in brief the philosophies of Immanuel Kant and Thomas Paine who support ‘cosmopolitanism’ of some sort which claims that ethical, cultural, and political communities exist beyond states alone.

On a positive note, countries are imbibing the idea of having a diversity and inclusion policy for their citizens. Because they have understood that ‘move’ is unavoidable in today’s world, they can thrive only through inclusive rather than exclusive policies. The Canadian scholar Daniel Bell has discussed this idea of ‘civicism’ gaining far more support than the idea of ‘nationalism’. People are valued more for their skills than their religious, racist, or religious identities. America is the biggest example of diversity noticeable for its size, wealth and freedom. It has the world’s largest migrant population with more than 50 million people coming from all around the world.

In the fourth chapter “The Next American Dream” Parag talks about mobile real estate as youth are consciously choosing not to buy expensive houses but mobile homes which can be easily moved from one place to another, carrying them on the back of a truck. This includes 3-D printed micro houses, ‘do-it-yourself’ houses sold at Amazon, and other types of expandible houses ready in minutes to be occupied.

Several Americans are moving to Europe for better opportunities. UK, Germany and France are attracting more Americans to their countries. More Asian Europeans are also causing an exodus. In chapter five, “The European Commonwealth”, the author says that Europeans do not have a migration problem but there is another more sensitive issue of identity, so they have an assimilation problem. In recent years, Germany has accepted 1 million Arab asylum seekers. This will give rise to an assimilation problem sooner or later for Turks, well settled in Germany.

Research gives enough evidence that world tribes are mingling, so genetic diversity will be seen across continents. “This is a reminder that mobility, not tribalism is our original instinct, more deeply hard-wired into who we are as humans” and that “Mobility refreshed and broadened our gene pool.” (pg.200). He points out that all major Asian diasporas like Chinese, Indian, Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Filipino are intermingling, which in the long run will impact not only the future generations’ genetic makeup but diasporic geopolitics as well.

Needless to say, the author has left no stone unturned to prove his point that the buzzword today is ‘move’. This book explains mobility because of an interplay of forces. Geopolitical issues are discussed at length and the author gives a brilliant insight into several other topics like populism, nationalism, and climate change. It is an interesting look at how human geography, which gives one an easy explanation of the climate crisis as a mover of change, has its impact on the world’s local, geopolitical, and cultural forces.

Parag Khanna is a leading global strategy advisor, world traveler, and best-selling author. He is the Founder & Managing Partner of FutureMap, a data and scenario-based strategic advisory firm. He has written several books on this topic. The purpose of his book is to realign or reimagine our geography based on the current global trends. The author is well-read and well connected, and shares a lot of interesting insights, anecdotes, and data points.

There is no doubt that the book is full of insights, but it is a little too much to say that our future youth will only care about skills and technology. In some places, it seems the author carelessly mixes his opinions with data-driven observations. In the end, the reader might remain flummoxed by the extensive facts being given and might feel as if one just completed reading a realistic fiction written by a representative of Gen-Z. Proclaiming the mobile home to be the "ultimate symbol of the new American mobility" and "hydrogen power" replacing coal and gas is so utterly farfetched.

This book is built on some obviously flawed premises. For instance, the author claims that immigrants do menial jobs that the US workers refuse to do and that women will mostly work as nurses, caregivers, and household helpers in foreign countries. The writing is great if you keep reexamining his propositions. At some point, the book does become tedious after the repetitive ideas, but still very much worth reading. It cannot be true that nationalists’ trends will vanish in the future and only individualistic youth will capture the world by their skills.

Overall, it is a well-written and fascinating book. I will recommend this book to anyone who wants to stay in the know about current affairs and is interested in human migration. It does make the reader consider and mull over new and different perspectives. For someone who delights in anticipating the future, this book is a great read. Extremely well researched, with in-depth analysis on how dozens of countries will be impacted by migration.

 

Image source: paragkhanna.com