The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has created a huge crisis of grain shortage in the Middle East as the Russian invasion has disrupted the supply chain.

Russia and Ukraine jointly account for 30% of world wheat exports. Russia is the world's greatest wheat exporter, followed by Ukraine in fourth place, and the two countries together account for 19% of global corn exports. If the battle in Ukraine continues for several weeks longer, Ukrainians will be unable to plant wheat, while Western sanctions will prevent Russia from selling its produce. As a result, grain prices will continue to climb sharply, causing sharp price increases in bread, milk, meat, and other goods.

The Middle East will suffer from the grain shortage due to the war in Ukraine. Several Middle East governments and especially those of Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, and Turkey will find it extremely difficult to pay for the increased prices of grain and may be forced to reduce or even abolish subsidies for bread, risking violent popular protests across the country. Bread subsidies are considered a red line among Egyptians and people in other countries in the Middle East, as they are staple for every family in the region.

Egypt is already looking for local alternatives as 85% of country’s wheat is imported from Russia and Ukraine. The food security crisis poses an existential threat to its economy. The price of bread has been a politically explosive issue in Egypt as on several occasions in the past 50 years it triggered angry protests across the nation.

The Russia-Ukraine war catapulted prices to unsustainable levels for Egypt, increasing the price of wheat by an additional 44% and that of sunflower oil by 32% virtually overnight. The fragile state of Egypt's food security stems from the agricultural sector's inability to produce enough cereal grains, especially wheat, and oilseeds to meet even half of the country's domestic demand.

Similarly, Lebanon is facing a huge problem with grain supplies, as it imports more than 80 percent of the grain it needs from the Black Sea and does not have a strategic stockpile of grains due to enormous explosion in the port of Beirut in August 2020 which destroyed its only large grain silo.

Turkey is a major producer of pasta, flour, biscuits and semolina. It is a key player in the international wheat market because of its huge imports. In 2021, Turkey imported 78 per cent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

The Russian-Ukrainian war will have lot of repercussions on international grain markets and will lead to huge inflation rate worldwide. In the end, the duration of the war will be a decisive factor in this crisis. This grain shortage is indicative of the ripples of catastrophic effects of war.

Image Source: India Ahead