Last year, it was the Assam Assembly elections that lit up the political atmosphere in the North-East. This year, it is Manipur, where polling to the 60-member Legislative Assembly was held amid COVID restrictions in two phases – February 28 and March 5 – against the backdrop of the strong agitations in the North-Eastern states for repeal of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958 (AFSPA), and realignment of the alliance between the political parties.

The elections were earlier scheduled to be held on February 27 and March 3, but the Election Commission of India (ECI) decided to reschedule the dates on the demand of the All Manipur Christian Organisation (AMCO), the All Tribal Students’ Union Manipur (ATSUM), and the Manipur Pradesh Congress Committee. It was because February 27 happened to be a Sunday – a day of worship for the Christian community.

Immediately after the rescheduling of the poll dates, Manipur State Congress Working President K Meghachandra hailed the decision of the ECI, which, he said, shows the Commission’s respect for a “secular” country. The counting of the votes and final declaration of the results would take place on March 10. The issues this time are wide-ranging and deeper, beginning from development, militancy, illegal trade of drugs, women’s empowerment, improving the law and order scenario of the state to the demand for repeal of the AFSPA, besides the state’s economic woes such as rising unemployment and corruption.

The first phase of polling held on the 28^th of February in 38 Assembly constituencies under five electoral districts witnessed a record voter turnout of 88.63%. In the 2017 Assembly polls, the turnout figure was 86%. The turnout in the second and final phase of the polls on March 5 was recorded at 76.04%, amid stray incidents of violence in some places before and after the beginning of voting. Except for a few incidents of EVM damage and preventive firing in air by security personnel in a few polling stations of Saitu, Henglep, and Singhat constituencies, voting was largely peaceful in this phase.

A few sporadic incidents of violence here and there did not have any detrimental effect on the overall poll process. Clashes and attacks were reported from different places of Imphal East, Imphal West, and Kangpokpi districts, but the security forces swiftly tackled the situation by mobilising additional forces. Both Congress and BJP candidates and leaders were seen to make allegations and counter-allegations of intimidation and vandalism of party election booths and resorting to violence.

Altogether 173 candidates, including 15 women candidates, are contesting the elections this time in Manipur. These Assembly elections in Manipur are particularly important for the ruling BJP as it prepares the ground for the 2024 general elections, taking into account the geo-political and strategic importance of India’s North-East both from the perspective of national security and as well as from the point of view of the successful implementation of India’s Act-East Policy. The outcome of the five state Assembly elections will not only decide who the next Chief Minister will be in each of the states, but will also have an impact on the Presidential poll to be held later this year.

The term of President Ram Nath Kovind ends on July 24, and the outcome of the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa on March 10 will decide which party or alliance will have a decisive say in the Presidential election. The elections are also expected to bring some changes in the Upper House of the Parliament because except for Punjab, the other four states are ruled by the BJP with brute majorities in the Assemblies of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Any reduction of seats will put the game in the Opposition camp as the Chief Ministers of different regional parties are trying to join hands. If they join hands and put up a joint candidate, the BJP will find it difficult to get its nominee elected. This would then bring into play the fence sitters – Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) – which control a sizeable chunk of votes that could swing the election either way. Among the poll-going states, the value of vote of an MLA from Punjab is 116, Uttarakhand 64, Goa 20, and Manipur 18.

The BJP had launched the ‘Creative Campaign’ as a part of its electioneering strategy for the Manipur Assembly polls. It was aimed at reaching out to the people and spreading awareness by highlighting, through various entertaining mediums, the achievements of the coalition government headed by the BJP during its five-year tenure. The results of the 12^th Manipur Assembly elections, which will be announced on March 10, are going to have an impact in nearby Nagaland, which goes to the polls early next year, especially with respect to the AFSPA issue and the BJP’s handling of the same.

Also, for perhaps the last time, it will test whether the Congress Party is any longer capable of emerging as a formidable opposition against the increasing political clout of the BJP-led anti-Congress alliance of regional parties, i.e., the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA). The current Chief Minister of Manipur Nongthombam Biren Singh was a member of the Congress Party for 15 years before joining hands with the BJP. Biren Singh has reiterated several times that he is strongly confident of the BJP retaining power with a solid and comfortable majority by securing at least 40 seats in the 60-member Manipur Assembly. At present, there are 29 sitting MLAs of the BJP in the Assembly. In order to reach the 40+ mark, the party needs 12 more MLAs. 

Such a political thinking on the part of the BJP emerges from the growing confidence and maturity of the party in the larger political discourse of the North-East in the recent years. There is also a speculation doing the rounds that the outcome of the Assam Legislative Assembly elections which were concluded last year, and the ever-increasing popularity of Chief Minister Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma are going to impact the electoral scenario of Manipur. It is because of the fact that Assam serves as a perfect reflection of the evolving power and political dynamics in the North-East.

Himanta Biswa Sarma is undoubtedly the BJP’s top political and campaign strategist for the North-East. One of the party’s star campaigners for the Manipur polls, Sarma had addressed several meetings and flag hoisting functions of party functionaries and public rallies in Manipur ahead of the elections. He expressed confidence that the BJP, on its own, would be able to form the Government in Manipur without the support of any other political party.

At present, all the eight states of the North-East either have a Chief Minister from the BJP or from the NEDA. Whereas the BJP’s popular slogan in the rest of the country is Bharat Mata ki Jai, in Manipur, the party prefers to use the slogan BJP Na Yaiphare, meaning ‘Victory to the BJP’, or ‘BJP is Great’. There is another popular slogan of the party in Manipur and that is PM Modi Jina Yaiphare, which implies ‘Prime Minister Modi is Great’. These and many more such strategies have been the well-calculated moves adopted by the party over the years to cater to local ethnic interests in the North-East.

In November 2021, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had laid the foundation for setting up of the Rani Gaidinliu Tribal Freedom Fighters’ Museum at Luangkao village in Manipur’s Tamenglong district. Mount Harriet in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands has been renamed as Mount Manipur, acknowledging the sacrifices made by the freedom fighters of the state, who are relatively lesser-known in other parts of the country. BJP President J.P. Nadda and Union Minister Bhupender Yadav, who is the party’s election in-charge for Manipur, and many other Central Ministers and leaders paid several visits to the poll-bound state and addressed gatherings during the course of the over two-month-long hectic poll campaign.

As informed by Chief Electoral Officer (CEO), Manipur, 381 polling stations in five Assembly constituencies – Singjamei, Thoubal, Yaiskul, Wangkhei, and Churachandpur – were completely manned by women this time. The initiative was undertaken with a view to providing a comfortable experience to women voters. One polling station in Saikot constituency of Churachandpur district was completely manned by PwD polling personnel. Although the number of female voters in Manipur exceeds that of male voters, but, women have very less or almost negligible representation in the state’s political affairs.

Despite all political parties in Manipur promising ample measures for women’s empowerment and heaping fulsome praise on Manipuri women for their bravery and achievements in various fields, the actual participation of women in the state’s electoral politics is considerably low. Every year, Manipur religiously observes the Nupi Lal (Women’s War), remembering the banner of revolt raised by its women in 1904 and 1939 against exploitation by the then British rulers.

Manipur’s Nupi Keithel is Asia’s largest women-run market. The state has a total of 20,48,169 voters, including 10,57,336 females and 9,96,627 males, in the voters’ list. However, in sharp contrast, only 17 women are in the fray among a total of 265 candidates in the ensuing Assembly polls for 60 constituencies. The Opposition Congress has fielded four women, while the ruling BJP has nominated only three. As many as 43 Assembly constituencies do not have a single woman candidate.

In the 2017 Assembly polls, there were 11 women out of 266 candidates. It may be mentioned here that AK Mirabai of the Congress Party and Nemcha Kipgen of the BJP were the only women MLAs elected in the last Assembly elections. Eighteen years after Manipur became a full-fledged state in the year 1972, it elected its first woman legislator, late Hangmila Shaiza, wife of late Yangmasho Shaiza, the fourth Chief Minister of Manipur, from Ukhrul in 1990. Late Keisham Apabi Devi was elected from the Oinam constituency, while Wahengbam Leima Devi won the Naoriya Pakhanglakpa constituency in the year 2000. The latter also went on to become a Minister.

Overall, in the electoral history of Manipur so far, the state has had less than 10 women legislators and only one MP. Kim Gangte was the first woman Lok Sabha member from Manipur elected in 1998. Saikul is one of the three Assembly constituencies in Manipur, besides Sekmai and Saikot, which has always been known for fielding the maximum number of candidates in the Assembly elections of Manipur. The Saikul seat lies in Kangpokpi district and is a part of the Outer Manipur Lok Sabha constituency. Significantly, female voters outnumber male voters out of a total electorate size of 28,000 in the Saikul constituency.

Most women who earn their livelihood at the lone women’s market located in the heart of this picturesque hill town of Saikul, around 35 km from the state capital Imphal, are hoping that the polls this time will bring in a positive change if the right candidate is chosen. Saikul had returned a Minister in the mid-1990s. Since then, most legislators elected from the constituency have sat on the Opposition benches. This time around, eight candidates are fighting the electoral battle from Saikul.

In the first phase of the polling that was concluded on the 28^th of February, the electoral fate of Chief Minister and BJP candidate N Biren Singh, his Cabinet colleague Thongam Biswajit Singh, NPP candidate and Deputy Chief Minister Yumnam Joykumar Singh, senior BJP leader Thokchom Satyabrata Singh, Congress’ Ratankumar Singh, Lokeshwar Singh, Saratchandra Singh, and sitting party MLA Akoijam Mirabai Devi is at stake. Firebrand Manipuri woman leader and Janata Dal (United) candidate Thounaojam Brinda, who was the Additional Superintendent of Police (Headquarters), is also contesting in the first phase of polling from the Yaiskul constituency.

The second and final phase of the polls were concluded for 22 seats under six electoral districts – Thoubal, Jiribam, Chandel, Ukhrul, Senapati, and Tamenglong) – on March 5. Whereas Thoubal falls in the valley area of Manipur, the other five districts are located in the mountainous areas bordering Assam and Nagaland, as well as Myanmar, making security forces maintain high vigil along both the international and inter-state borders on the polling day. The fate of former CM Okram Ibobi Singh, his son Surjakumar, and former Deputy Chief Minister Gaikhangam were sealed on this day.

The 74-year old veteran Congress leader, Okram Ibobi Singh, has contested from the Thoubal Assembly seat in Thoubal district. He is locked in a four-cornered contest against the BJP’s Leitanthem Basanta Singh, Janata Dal (United)’s Irom Chaoba Singh, and Shiv Sena’s Konsam Michael Singh. The main Opposition Congress did not field candidates in four of the 22 Assembly seats in the second phase, viz. Chandel, Mao, Tadubi, and Tamenglong. Political parties have observed that it is tacitly supporting the candidates of the National People’s Party (NPP), headed by Meghalaya CM Conrad K Sangma, which is an ally of the BJP in both Meghalaya and Manipur since 2017, but contesting separately in Manipur this time.

The BJP had managed to form its first-ever coalition government in Manipur in the year 2017, despite having just 21 seats compared to the Congress, which emerged as the single largest party in the Assembly by securing 28 seats. The BJP was able to stitch together an alliance with the support of 4 Naga People’s Party (NPP) MLAs, 4 Naga People’s Front (NPF) members, a lone Trinamool Congress MLA, and an independent member. In fact, in the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress was the single largest party in both Goa and Manipur; but, the BJP, by striking alliances with smaller regional parties in both the states, was finally successful in forming the government.

This time, with the aim of securing more seats than earlier, the ruling BJP and its coalition partners in the incumbent state government of Manipur, carried out hectic political campaigns throughout the state, cutting across the valley and the hills. However, the BJP this time has fielded candidates in all the 60 constituencies, while the NPP and the NPF had announced their candidates for 38 and 10 seats respectively. The NPP is a dominant party of the Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) Government and an ally of the ruling BJP in Manipur since 2017. However, as mentioned above, the BJP and the two regional parties are separately contesting the two-phase Assembly polls this time.

The BJP’s alliance with the NPP is a factor in Meghalaya; but, in the case of Manipur, the picture is rather different from the point of view of both demographics and geography. The NPF – another ally of the BJP-led Government in Manipur – has fielded 10 candidates in total for the elections, including four sitting legislators – Awangbow Newmai from Tamei, Khashim Vashum from Chingai, K. Leishiyo from Phungyar, and Losii Dikho from Mao. The other six candidates have been fielded from Chandel, Tengnoupal, Tamenglong, Ukhrul, Karong, and Tadubi constituencies.

It is to be noted here that the NPF, with 25 MLAs, is a major ally of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA)-led India’s first all-party and Opposition-less Government in Nagaland. With 21 members, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and the BJP, with 12 MLAs, are the two important constituents of the UDA. With the relations between the BJP and its allies in the North-Eastern states, especially the NPF and the NPP, hitting the rock-bottom, there is bound to be a serious electoral impact in the near future, especially in the context of the Assembly elections in Meghalaya and Nagaland early next year.

At the same time, the Opposition Congress, which governed the state of Manipur for 15 consecutive years (2002-2017) and which is aiming to oust the BJP from power, has fielded candidates (54 in total), keeping in mind the specific strategic and electoral compulsions of different constituencies in the state. It formed the Manipur Progressive Secular Alliance (MPSA) after entering into a pre-poll alliance with the CPI, CPI (M), Forward Bloc, RSP, and JD (S). An interesting pattern that has been noticeable in this year’s elections is that those aspiring candidates who failed to secure BJP and Congress tickets eventually chose to contest the polls on Janata Dal (United), Republican Party of India (Athawale), Shiv Sena, and NPP tickets, instead of Independent (I).

Two former BJP MLAs – Y Erabot from the Wangkhei Assembly constituency, and M Rameshwar from Kakching – who were denied tickets by the party this time, are contesting from the NPP. On the 8^th of February 2021, weeks before the crucial Assembly elections, the chief spokesperson of Manipur BJP, Chongtham Bijoy Singh from Uripok Mandal, was expelled from primary membership of the party for 6 years with immediate effect “for violation of the party’s rules and regulations and breach of party discipline.” This came just a day after Bijoy had termed the NPP as a “parasite that had proved a menace” to the ruling alliance in the last five years.

It is important to note here that Bijoy Singh was denied a ticket for the ensuing Assembly elections from Uripok constituency when the BJP had announced its list of 60 candidates on January 30. After his expulsion from the party, Singh had announced that he would support the Janata Dal (United) candidate, KH Suresh, who is contesting from the Uripok Assembly constituency. The BJP has nominated a retired IAS officer, L. Raghumani, for the Uripok seat. In the last 5 years, several Congress leaders in Manipur have switched sides to the BJP, indicating that supposed party ideologies and loyalty are not the most important factors in politics.

This gradual yet steady shift of leaders from the Congress to the BJP in Manipur could perhaps best be understood by the story of businessman Arunkumar Thangjam, who might not be very well-known to people outside of Manipur. Thangjam had joined the Congress Party in the year 2020, but shifted loyalty to the BJP in 2021, mainly with the objective of contesting from the Wangkhei Assembly constituency in the upcoming Assembly polls. The Wangkhei constituency had been lying vacant for quite some time because Congress MLA Okram Henri Singh had resigned from the party and joined the BJP.

The increasing departure of politicians towards the BJP has a deep underlying meaning. It not only reflects the general mood and aspirations of the people in the North-East who have now begun to gradually endorse the BJP, but also that the BJP has undoubtedly emerged as the strongest political force in the region. The role of Manipur Minister and BJP candidate, Thongam Biswajit Singh, who holds six important portfolios including PWD and is contesting from the Thongju Assembly constituency for the third consecutive time, is significant in this regard. Singh is the BJP’s first MLA in Manipur since 2015, who played a vital role in bringing many Congress MLAs and leaders into the BJP’s fold, including the incumbent CM N Biren Singh.

The Congress, therefore, is a sinking ship in Manipur, resulting in the creation of a political vacuum in the opposition camp. The BJP, on the other hand, has successfully exhibited its dominance in the race by aligning with regional political parties whose influence has, however, declined in the period post 2001. However, in certain areas of Manipur, the foundation of the Congress is still strong, the party having been consecutively in power for three terms. Constituencies such as Heingang, Nambol, and Thanga will witness straight fights between the Congress and the BJP. Manipur being a small state, there could be close fights with very narrow margins of win for the Congress after the declaration of the results on the 10^th of March.

Moreover, the Congress Party in Manipur has no CM face this time to counter the prospects of the ruling BJP and its charismatic leader N Biren Singh. Biren Singh was initially a famous footballer. He later entered into the field of journalism by taking over charge as the editor of a local Manipuri daily before joining the Congress and finally the BJP. He had also served in the Border Security Force (BSF) to which he was recruited for his excellent performance as a footballer. He served as a minister in the Congress Party Government of former Chief Minister of Manipur Okram Ibobi Singh who ruled the state for a long period of 15 years. Ibobi Singh’s tenure was marked by recurring episodes of violence, economic blockades, and unending shutdowns.

Biren Singh is contesting from his traditional Heingang seat in Imphal East district against Pangeijam Saratchandra Singh of the Congress. However, the BJP State President of Manipur A. Sharda Devi, has made it clear that the next Chief Minister of the state would be decided by the party’s top leadership after the declaration of the election results. Biren Singh is seeking re-election for the fifth consecutive term from the Heingang Assembly constituency. He was first elected to the Manipur Assembly in 2002 as a Democratic Revolutionary People’s Party candidate from the same constituency. The next year he joined the Congress and was again able to retain the seat in 2007 as a Congress nominee.

In 2012, Biren Singh retained the Assembly seat for the third consecutive term. He resigned from the State Assembly and the Congress Party in October, 2016 after which he joined the BJP. He was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Manipur on March 15, 2017. Unlike many previous Chief Ministers of the state, Biren Singh has been successful in maintaining healthy and amicable relations with the hill leaders by quelling frictions within his party. It is because of the historical fact that Hindu Meitei leaders from the valley have never enjoyed a popular support base in the hills of Manipur, which are overwhelmingly Christian.

Biren Singh also played a very important role from the forefront in handling the COVID-19 pandemic. Through the Government’s ‘Go to Hills’ and ‘Go to Village’ programmes, Biren Singh established close linkages with various hill-based civil society and ethnic organisations which have helped in building a good relationship between people from the valley and the hills. This is clearly evident in the sharp reduction witnessed in the number of bandhs, blockades, general strikes and encounters since 2017. There is also enough data available in the website of the Union Home Ministry to support this.

As per the MHA Security Situation Report, Manipur has seen a consistent decline of insurgency-related cases; from 233 in 2016 to 167 in 2017 and 127 in 2018. Overall, terror-related violence has been largely contained in Manipur under the dynamic leadership and good governance of Biren Singh. Among other issues, the BJP hopes to cash in on the drastic decline in long bandhs and blockades in the state, besides a remarkable improvement in the road and railway communication and law-and-order situation of the state.

(To be Contd.)

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