Last week, even as the Narendra Modi led NDA swept to a second term with a historic majority, its Maharashtra state unit bucked both the trends and odds to maintain its seat tally, and improve its vote share from 2014. The ultimate verdict, however, belies the closeness of the contest in many aspects. Maharashtra, a key battlefield for both NDA and UPA, has been reeling under drought for nearly the entire duration of NDA’s first term. The agrarian distress coupled with the caste fault-lines coming to the fore with various agitations meant one could see the strong tailwinds supporting anti-incumbency. While how the NDA managed to pull off one of its toughest win is a topic for another day, its impact on the future of state and national politics and the underlying themes can be discerned.

Rise and rise of Brand Fadanvis- For once, mainstream media, social media and masses are in agreement- CM Devendra Fadanvis has emerged as the tallest leader the state has seen in a long time. He managed a prickly ally for nearly the entire term, handled a persistent drought situation, navigated his way through potentially violent agitations from farmers and Marathas to maintain the law and order, and raised the party’s electoral game several notches in the municipal elections (where BJP now rules in 15 out of 29 major municipal corporations) .This dominance in municipal elections and the fact that Shiv Sena, in spite of fielding the deceased MP’s son, could not win the Palghar bypoll, must have weighed in on the minds of Thackrey father-son duo while deciding about the LS elections.

 During the elections, Fadanvis took the courageous decision to drop almost a third of sitting MPs, and campaigned tirelessly. He addressed a staggering 87 rallies, attacked the Pawars relentlessly and took Raj Thackrey head-on. His humorous takes on the MNS chief (comparing him to retired players becoming commentators) were instant hit. Nearly every political observer I have interacted with, has expressed surprise and admiration about just how popular the CM has become in the rural and semi-urban areas. With a near perfect transfer of his popularity in votes, Fadanvis has further strengthened his place in the state politics as well as BJP. After LS 2019 it is a safe assumption that the Maharashtra CM has bigger roles ahead of him.

Vikas chemistry breaking caste arithmetic- As many observers wrote, beneficiaries of numerous welfare schemes breaking the caste lines to vote for a party they thought was responsible for development has been the story of 2019. Maharashtra proved to be no exception as the rapid pace of several infrastructure projects and the revolutionary jal-yukt shivar broke stubborn caste equations and turned several potentially close contests into landslides.  In the parched areas of Marathwada and Vidarbha the alliance won 16 out of 19 seats, thus confirming that the state government’s focus on vikas was more than a match to the challenge raised by caste politics.

Fall of the fringe players- MNS chief Raj Thackrey’s rallies in support of UPA, generated lot of buzz on social as well as mainstream media. However, his theatrics and rhetoric were of no consequence ultimately, since NDA swept almost all the places he campaigned. Similarly, Raju Shetty a 2 time MP representing Swabhiman Paksha, who switched allegiance to UPA in 2018, was defeated comprehensively from Hatkanangale. Unlike Raj Thackrey, Shetty may still have influence on state level politics, but there is no doubt that the voters have rejected what they saw as opportunism from the fringe players.

Reaffirmation of the organic nature of alliance between BJP and Shiv Sena- Since the two parties joined hands in 1989, the relations between the two alliance partner had never seen the depths it did in the last four and a half years. However, once the LS tie-up was announced, the leadership as well as cadre shrugged nearly five years of acrimony to work together. Generally the campaign on ground saw participation from both sides (as well as from RPI-Athavale) across the state and with CM Fadanvis announcing that the two partners will fight assembly polls together later this year, this on ground chemistry will have to be considered a huge plus.

Dynasty on a wane- Before the elections, there was optimism among NCP cadres that their supremo, on the back of good performance in the state, would get to play the role of kingmaker in the centre. NCP got their seat sharing equation with Congress right, and campaigned with energy and vigour, and yet had little to show for results. Fielding two family members from Baramati and Maval meant chief strategist Ajit Pawar was tied down in Pune district for most of the time. The possibility of a grand upset at Baramati must have spooked the Pawars, and even though ultimately Supriya Sule romped home with a margin of over 155000 votes, Parth Pawar, the other family candidate from Maval was at the receiving end of a drubbing by over 215000 votes. The party needs some serious planning and introspection to do before getting ready for the assembly. It also needs to assess if an alliance with Congress is an asset or a liability for them.

Congress’s descent into irrelevance continues- If the 2014 Congress reminded us of a deer caught in the headlights of a Modi wave, the 2019 Congress campaign was similar to a proverbial pencil-pushing babu- running down the clock while going through the motions! Party’s campaigns in major centres like Pune and Mumbai lacked any traction. Party President Rahul Gandhi’s needless attack on Marathi icon Swatantryaveer Savarkar only made matters worse. On the big day, former CMs Ashok Chavan and Sushil Kumar Shinde were trounced and even the endorsement of India’s richest man didn’t save Milind Deora in Mumbai. The party chose yesteryear actress Urmila Matondkar while ignoring a capable spokesperson like Priyanka Chaturvedi .The poetic justice of Matondkar losing from Mumbai North by the biggest margin in the state was not lost on anyone. Equally worrying were the reports of several Congress leaders not working on the campaigns of NCP candidates. If there is substance to this, it can spoil the possibility of an alliance for assembly elections later this year. 

As the battered UPA allies regroup, the assembly election will no doubt see a keen contest. The possibility of Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi playing a key role can’t be discounted. However, with Fadanvis’s charisma, Thackrey’s immense appeal among the cadres, and delivery of several development project, for now the NDA alliance is in pole position.