Kerala conducted local body elections early this week for all rural and urban bodies across the state and the results have surprised all. The Left parties alliance called the Left Democratic Front (LDF) has managed to retain their hold on the local bodies, while the Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF) has flattered to deceive leading to BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) make surprising gains in various regions of the state. With just 4 months left for the state to head to assembly polls, surely all parties have a lot to think and strategize to stay relevant and dominant.

In 2016, during a friendly conversation with a Malayali colleague of mine, I remember him making a point, “We don’t like to see BJP enter our state. Their entry will result in communal tensions and riots”. This was just before the assembly polls of May 2016. Kerala was a state which had seen power alternating between UDF and LDF every term since 1977. The incumbent UDF led by Oommen Chandy was swept out of power with a poor show of 47 of 140 seats. LDF roared back to power with a massive 91 seats while BJP was left high and dry with just 1 seat for all its high-decibel campaign.

My friend’s statement reverberated that day. Many Malayalis (who generally identify themselves as anti-BJP) have acknowledged that BJP had run a very effective high-visibility campaign and yet had almost nothing to show. It was obvious that when it came to preventing the BJP from gaining ground in the state, the UDF and LDF supporters would work as one to become the immovable object in front of an unstoppable force. So much so that Kummanam was transported off to far-away Mizoram as a Governor only to be brought back to contest the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

V S Achuthanandan, a 93-year old stalwart from CPI(M) had tirelessly campaigned through the length and breadth of the state to help his alliance win. And yet when it was time to declare a Chief Minister, CPI(M) Politburo instead chose Pinarayi Vijayan for the post of the Chief Minister.

Vijayan’s tenure as CM has been a mixed bag. The 2018 Kerala floods were passed off as once-in-a-millennium catastrophe but later investigations clearly indicated that this was a grave human error which led to the dam gates of Idukki Dam not being opened until it was too late. Global economic slowdown led to massive shortfalls in the remittances made by overseas Malayalis back to their homestate and this pushed the state to the precipice of economic disaster. But amidst all this, there was ground level appreciation of implementation of projects and schemes that would reach the common people in terms of infrastructure and policy reforms which led to high satisfaction levels.

Fast forward to 2019 Lok Sabha elections and yet again, BJP ran a very heated campaign yet again and yet again they had nothing to show. Their loss in Thiruvananthapuram when Shashi Tharoor managed to win against Kummanam Rajasekharan by a whopping margin of 1 lakh was devastating to the party to say the least. BJP didn’t have an answer to the Kerala conundrum. How do you win in this state? How do we convince the electorate to trust us?

But the most pertinent question was, what explained the rout of LDF as they could win just 1 out of 20 parliamentary constituencies. Since Kerala anyway votes alternatively between UDF and LDF and since LDF was anyway routed in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, it was assumed that LDF was surely on its way out in the 2021 assembly polls.

Since then, much has happened in Kerala. The state was one of the hardest hit during the COVID-19 pandemic and their healthcare system helped them tide over the crisis with phenomenal success. But the lockdowns and return of the overseas Malayalis jobless started haunting the state government. Amidst all this was the scam of gold smuggling carried out by the staff of the Chief Minister’s Office with the help of diplomatic staff of the consulate of the United Arab Emirates that led to questions about the integrity of the Chief Minister himself.

Local Self Government (LSG) Polls 2020

It was at this stage that the Local Self Government (LSG) polls of December 2020 held significance. Would this be a precursor to a Left rout in the assembly polls? Would the Cong-led UDF make the most of anti-incumbency? Would BJP-led NDA flatter to deceive again?

The LDF has grabbed 5 out of 6 corporations, 11 out of 14 district panchayats, 35 out of 87 municipalities, 112 out of 152 block panchayats and 514 out of 941 grama panchayats. At a macro level, this looks like a stupendous result for the LDF. The UDF on the other hand is cut to size with just 1 out of 6 corporations (Kannur), 2 out of 14 district panchayats (Ernakulam and Malappuram), 45 of 87 municipalities, 40 of 152 block panchayats and 377 of 941 grama panchayats. The BJP led NDA has won just 2 municipalities (Palakkad and Pandalam) and 22 grama panchayats in the entire state.

Corporations

Thiruvananthapuram has managed to check BJP’s growth in the capital city. LDF has 51 of the 100 seats and has a simple majority. NDA despite all their best efforts is yet again second best winning just 34 wards and stood second in 32 wards.  Questions will be raised as to why is BJP not able to cross the barrier. The only solace for BJP is that it has managed to push UDF to third place in a convincing fashion.

The only saving grace for UDF has been the city of Kannur where it managed a simple majority by bagging 34 of 55 seats.

Although there were a lot of local factors, the lack-lustre performance of UDF across the urban areas has become a cause of major worry with the party high-command thinking of a strategy to counter LDF’s winning momentum.

District Panchayats

Even here UDF’s performance was abysmal. Even in their traditional strongholds like Kottayam, Idukki, Kannur, Thrissur it had to taste bitter defeats. Their only rays of hope came from Ernakulam and Malappuram. Even in Wayanad, from where Rahul Gandhi is their Member of Parliament, UDF couldn’t win outright.

Analysis

The numbers tell just half the story. One would be misled to think that there is an LDF wave in the state. However, numbers and voting percentages reveal that the LDF has benefitted from a split of votes between the UDF and NDA. This is because many voters who would earlier vote for UDF have now deserted them. And these deserters are now voting for both LDF and NDA. Such desertions are primarily based on demographic lines. The Hindus who were earlier voting for UDF seem to have moved over to NDA and therefore widening the gap between LDF and the second party.

In addition, Congress’ calculated move to squeeze out Kerala Congress (Mani) from UDF either by subsuming it or by kicking it out of UDF resulted in Jose Mani of Kerala Congress (Mani) joining ranks with LDF. This led to LDF giving a stupendous performance in Idukki, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta districts as an end result of switch of Christian votes to LDF.

The only saving grace for the Congress is the strong showing of the UDF in the Malabar region with the help of its alliance partner Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). The strong showing in 2019 has repeated all over again in 2020. Will UDF be able to build on this in 2021 remains to be seen.

For the BJP though, it is able to repeatedly get Nair community votes (with its alliance with Bharat Dharma Jana Sena - BDJS) for 3 elections in a row. In addition, there are indications that Ezhava community too is favouring BJP in certain pockets. In many municipalities like Attingal, Varkala in Thiruvananthapuram district, Chengannur in Alappuzha district, Thrippunithura in Ernakulam district, Kodungallur in Thrissur district, Shornur in Palakkad district, Thalassery in Kannur district and Kasargode municipality, BJP is placed second and this will, bode well for the party in future. Yet, winning just 2 municipalities - Palakkad and Pandalam - will hurt the party.

BJP held the Palakkad municipality and it has retained it again this time. But the icing on the cake for the party would be winning the Pandalam municipality in Pathanamthitta district. Pandalam was the epicenter of the whole Sabarimala agitation and BJP had placed all its bets on the sensitive issue. Winning Pandalam handsomely, BJP would say, is divine intervention.

The Road Ahead

The biggest challenge among all 3 major political alliances is for the UDF. The ground is slipping beneath them and the quicker they realise it, the better it is. Of course, the assembly elections are a different ball game altogether but if LDF manages to retain their consolidation and if NDA continues to nibble at a few more regions, UDF can bid goodbye to its chance at winning the assembly polls.  And that would be a body blow for the party which had won 15 of 20 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. Its alliance partners had won 4 more leaving just 1 for CPI(M). In fact, if Congress goofs up further, one shouldn’t be surprised if its alliance partner IUML wins more seats and emerges as the largest party within the alliance (In 2016, Congress had 22 and IUML had 18) and that would change the dynamics of the alliance completely.

The BJP though has no other option but to carry on with its Hindu consolidation across the southern and central regions of the state. As more consolidation happens, the gap of the winner too increases but the vote share of the party will increase. This incremental growth will hold the party in good stead. Will it be able to win a few assembly seats? There are enough indications that it will. But if there is counter-polarization against BJP, then the party will be disappointed yet again. However, the ace up BJP’s sleeve is that it is in the king-maker’s role in many municipalities and grama panchayats and can use it to its advantage in the long run.

The LDF surprisingly is sitting pretty, despite allegations of money-laundering scam at the highest corridors of power, mismanagement of the second-wave of COVID-19 pandemic, economic distress and this is a great beginning to ask for after the drubbing it received in 2019 polls. The counter-mobilization of Muslim and Christian votes to LDF (away from their traditional UDF parties) to check the growth of BJP is not to be ruled out and that will only help the LDF to widen its base across all the regions.

Will there be any more surprises waiting in Apr-May 2021 is a question that everyone has in his mind. Will my friend be laughing yet again in 2021 or will be having a disappointed face? And the wait isn’t long. Just 5 months away!

Sources:

http://www.trend.kerala.gov.in/views/index.php

https://results.mathrubhumi.com/result/panchayat/state.html

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