INTRODUCTION

The joke in Kerala in the last decade was that an RSS volunteer (swayamsevak) who does his routine exercises in the shakhas, conducted in the temple grounds across Kerala, will attain political maturity when he enters college and starts voting for either Communist or Congress led fronts. The bi-polar nature of the Kerala Politics is evident from the fact that the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) – CPI(M) and Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF) always held unchallenged hegemony over the political landscape ever since 1960s with albeit minor aberrations. However, this local body elections assume importance as a manifestation of Communal voting patterns as well as rise of new players in the political arena, and need of a nationalistic political view propagated by the third Player, the Narendra Modi led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

VICTORY OF THE LEFT & DEFEAT OF THE CONGRESS

The most surprising aspect of the local body polls was the victory of the LDF which was on a downward spiral on account of its inept governance, rampant corruption, highhandedness by the Communist cadres and above all the traitorous support to the Breaking India Forces. Further, the allegations of gold-smuggling, possibly in cahoots with several foreign players and blatant misuse of religion, which were with a clear national security angle, saw various Central Government agencies, including the NIA, Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Customs, arresting various persons and even a bureaucrat in connection with Chief Minister’s Office, thereby giving sleepless nights to the leaders of the LDF.

It is in these rather “adverse” circumstances that the victory of the LDF across the state assume serious significance. The reasons for the same are as follows:

1. The rallying of the 30% Muslim vote-bank behind the LDF across the state, except in certain pockets

The game changer for the LDF was the consolidation of Muslim vote-bank across districts of Kerala. This is inspite of the fact that the Congress had a strong ally, the IUML, all-Muslim party and also tie-ups with various splinter groups of the Jamaat-e-Islami, which had a sizeable hold on the principal minority community. It seems that the LDF’s campaigns by stoking fear of the BJP and misinformation on the CAA and NRC has resulted in the Muslims moving towards the LDF as a bulwark against the BJP, due to the consistent decline of the Congress party across the country and most recently in southern state of Telangana which has led to the rise of the saffron party there.

The only saving grace was for the UDF in Muslim dominated Malappuram district, where it escaped due to the performance of its ally, the Muslim League. However, even here, the Left has made dent by winning Ponnani Municipality, a hot-bed of Salafi politics and religious conversions.

2. The closet support provided by the Christian clergy in Central Kerala

The most unexpected aspect of this election was the switching of Christian support in large numbers to the LDF. The Christian community, with almost 17-18% of the population was always the loyal vote-bank of the Congress led UDF. Losing of the same was catastrophic to the Congress party, paving way to LDF victories in the districts of Ernakulam, Thrissur, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha and most particularly, in Kottayam, the former bastion of the Kerala Congress, a de-facto Christian party.

The irony of the Christian voting pattern is the rise of anti-terrorist feeling (which is often misquoted or misrepresented as anti-Muslim) in Kerala, was lying latent throughout the last decade. This was mainly with regard to various incidents like “Love Jihad” which saw even recruitment of Christian girls to the dreaded ISIS in Syria, the discrimination of the Christian community in favour of the Muslim community in the special packages and schemes for the minorities (popularly known as 80:20 in Kerala), the conversion of Hagia Sofia, a prominent Christian centre in Turkey to an Islamic mosque. Decline of the Congress and the rise of the Muslim League as a power centre within UDF has added to the uneasiness among the Christian community.

The end result was disastrous for the UDF and especially the Congress party with the party being relegated to the margins in its erstwhile stronghold.

3. Well-oiled organisational machinery of the LDF giving the last-mile advantage

Another factor which propelled the victory of the LDF was its immense cadre strength with presence in remotest regions of the state. Coupled with it was the highhandedness and bahubalis which forced the UDF to be on the defensive, especially in parts of North Kerala.

The CPI-M cadre also undertook massive PR exercise which have enabled them to project the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and K.K. Shylaja, the Health Minister, as having done their best to stop the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. This despite the fact that Kerala is one of the biggest hotspots for the spread of the pandemic in the country. 

Further, the LDF Government also made use of the Central welfare schemes and fashioned it as their own, through the ground work of the CPI-M cadre along with the dedicated cyber warriors seems to have done the job for the LDF.

4. Cross-voting by the UDF/Congress to defeat the BJP in certain districts

Another aspect which contributed more to the Congress defeat was its suicidal act of transferring their votes to the LDF for stopping the rise of the BJP in certain districts. The most important example of the same was in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation which the BJP was hoping to score a victory. The cross-voting in the capital city saw the BJP retaining its 34 seats while UDF stood at just 10 seats out of 100, giving the LDF 52 seats giving them a simple majority therein.

The same pattern was visible in various areas including Thrissur, Pathanamthitta and Palakkad wherein the Congress has aided the Left to stop the BJP. The Congress will have to pay dearly for this in the future. Having lost its loyal Christian and Muslim vote-banks to the LDF and also several of its Hindu voters to the BJP, Congress seems to be going to face the same fate it with it in Telangana.

THE RISE OF THE BJP

The most underrated, but decisive takeaway of this election is the rise of the Narendra Modi led Bharatiya Janata Party. It has won seats across the state, and has emerged out of its erstwhile “strongholds” like Thiruvananthapuram and Kasargod in the past, with about 1600 seats up from 1,100+ in 2015 with vote share of 15%. The victories in Pandalam in Pattanamthitta District (the epic centre of Sabarimala agitation) and Palakkad municipalities clearly show that a sizeable section of Hindus have started joining the saffron party for mainly the following reasons:

1. Repeated demonization and ridiculing of Hindu religious beliefs.
2. Appeasement politics by both secular fronts
3. Violent reaction and communal sloganeering by the jihadi sympathisers towards the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) last year.
4. Pandalam-Palakkad Model – Hindutva (+) Central Government Schemes

The most heartening performance of the BJP was in the two municipalities of Pandalam and Palakkad which came on the back of strong organizational backing and welfare schemes of the Central Government. The BJP, which was ruling the Palakkad Municipality since 2015, has done a commendable work by executing the flagship schemes of the Central Government including the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) on a massive scale, resulting in groundswell support for the party and thereby enabling it to come to power with greater majority.

In Pandalam, the BJP cadre focused on igniting the spirit of Sabarimala agitation wherein the Hindu religious feelings were insulted in the pretext of implementing the judgment of the Hon’ble Supreme Court and also on helping the common people in availing the beneficial schemes put forth by the Union Government, propelling BJP to win 18 seats, which is more than simple majority.

2. The growing Christian support

Last but not the least, a small number of Christians have also started gravitating towards the BJP, due to same reasons as their movement towards LDF in Central Kerala. Victory of dozen Christian candidates on saffron party tickets is a testimony for the same, most notably in Kottayam and Pathanamthitta districts. Only thing that stopped BJP from gaining more support among the Christian community was that it is yet to attain mass cadre strength in all parts of the state to steer themselves to final victory.

3. The Road ahead

The BJP needs to make inroads into the Ezhava community constituting about 22% of the population if they are to win big across the state. The BJP also needs to ramp up its ally BDJS and make sure that it mends its relations with the SNDP so as to make Hindu consolidation plus a sprinkling of Christian votes a reality. However, a worrying factor is that the vote share of the BJP seems to have hit a bump at 17%, which is only slightly above the 15% they got in 2019 Lok Sabha polls which is to be looked into at the earliest.

Further, BJP needs to replicate the Pandalam-Palakkad Model throughout the state making no bones about its Hindu identity and decisive stand on national security, coupled with good governance (especially in local bodes where it has wrested power) and spread awareness about the welfare schemes of the Central Government. It has to make use of the favourable circumstances and do more work on the ground rather than to depend upon the Central leadership for each and every petty issues.

GROWING STRENGTH OF ISLAMIST COMMUNAL GROUPS

The present local body polls also indicated the ominous sign of growing strength of Islamist political forces in the state with the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), the political arm of the Popular Front of India (PFI) winning about 100 seats in total across the state. Moreover, the Islamist forces are now exercising massive political, demographic and financial clout in the state, which has become a strong force to reckon with when one considers its influence upon both the fronts.

CONCLUSION

The most important takeaway of the Kerala local body polls 2020, is the rallying of Muslim community behind Marxist politics. The fast changing religious demography and the threat of radicalization, is nothing but a bad omen for Kerala’s political and social life. The onus is upon the BJP to step into the vacuum being left by the Congress and build a Hindu-Christian umbrella alliance based on nationalist view and good governance before it becomes too late for the southern coastal state to escape the fate of Kashmir.

Image Credit: The Economic Times