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Nov 10, 2025
Viren S Doshi

The 2025 Off-Year American Mini-Elections: A Wake-Up Call for Conservative Nationalists in a Polarised Landscape

Overview The 2025 off-year American mini-elections — contests held in non-presidential years, with almost complete emphasis on state and local offices over national ones — took place on November 4, 2025. Polarised and pushed, opposition Leftist Democrats attained opening victories in the gaps left by the embattled ruling Nationalist Republican Party, struggling with lower-level leadership issues and internal divisions amid polarisation in the American political landscape, driven by its serial bold transformative measures at the federal level. As the first major test of President Donald Trump's second term draining the swamp in Washington DC, these high-stakes races highlighted how the administration's bold transformative agenda has inadvertently polarised, pushed, and cornered Leftist Democrats to unite and spend heavily on election expenses, while making promises for freebies to struggling Americans even at the risk of economic disasters. Meanwhile, Nationalist Republicans find themselves divided and reactive, also at risk of alienating key supporters such as Jewish Americans, Hispanic Americans, and South Asian, law-abiding, well-educated Americans—mainly Hindus, Jains, Buddhists, and Sikhs. These influential groups, capable of flipping outcomes, have little on the table against the Conservatives. They are more aligned with Conservative values related to faith, family, and nation; however, they feel alienated, possibly due to rhetoric from fringe elements and moles within the Republican movement. Narrative peddlers from the leftist media have effectively instigated these communities against the Trump-led Republicans. Another major issue is the voting system. Many leftist-dominated local units have allowed voting without due scrutiny in the name of voting rights and civil rights. Voter turnout spiked in battlegrounds — over 2.9 million in Virginia — serving as a grave reminder for electoral reforms. The so-called referendum on Trump's early policies, with exit polls showing the economy (52% priority), affordability (11%), and perceived "chaos" (14% citing democracy threats) driving anti-GOP sentiment, distracted the discourse from core vital issues like electoral reforms. The third point is a fast-changing demography and wokeist campaigns brainwashing sections of the American youth. Democrats not only held their demographic strongholds but flipped 42 seats, mainly due to forced unity and rapidly changing demography and “dividends” of their wokeist agenda in the Universities and academia brainwashing the sections of young voters who have almost no idea of even the WTC terrorist attacks in New York; netting a +42 gain and capturing 82% of contested partisan races — a stark reversal from 2024's Trump sweep. The elections, held without much needed electoral reforms, encompassed over 300 total contests (partisan and nonpartisan), with over 240 partisan races directly influencing party control: 2 gubernatorial, 5 other statewide executives (e.g., lieutenant governor—deputy to the governor—and attorney general), 220 legislative seats (100 in Virginia's House of Delegates, 120 in New Jersey's legislature), 7 major partisan mayoral races (out of 38 total; many are nonpartisan), and 72 local offices (e.g., county executives—county government leaders—public service commissions—utility regulators—and sheriffs—county law enforcement chiefs). Plus 24 nonpartisan ballot measures (voter policy referendums). Elections were also held over the last weeks for 6 U.S. House specials (to fill vacancies). Fundraising from rattled forces like Leftists, Jihadis, Globalists and Wokeists favoured Democrats 3:1 in key races, amplified by outreach to independents (+19-point Dem shift) and rebounding Latinos (+8 points). Funds seem to have been spent by Democrats with no holds barred. Trump's economic stabilizers—tax extensions adding $1,200 in household pay, energy deregulation holding gas at $2.95/gallon (15% YOY drop), and immigration enforcement slashing crossings 94% (saving $50-100B) — bolstered core GOP support but probably failed to counter fake peddled narratives leading to perceptions of inflation (3.2% CPI) and shutdown fallout apart from leftist subtle narratives around almost all issues. The result? A Democratic sweep underscores Republican weaknesses. Democrats held 158 positions and flipped 42, with minimal losses. Significant Wins: Governors and Mayors Expose GOP divisions Gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey — both open due to term limits — netted Democrats +1, flipping Virginia for trifecta control (one party dominating governor and legislatures). State Virginia Winner: Abigail Spanberger Party: Democrat Margin: 13.5 pts (56.7%-43.2%) Hold or Flip? Flip (from R) Key Notes - Record turnout; first female governor; independents +19 pts Dem. Spanberger's rout over Winsome Earle-Sears included statewide flips (lieutenant governor: Ghazala Hashmi; attorney general: Jay Jones, despite scandal), yielding +3 gains. State New Jersey Winner: Mikie Sherrill Party: Democrat Margin: 18 pts Hold or Flip? Hold, Flipped 3 Trump-won Latino counties; 50% turnout. Sherrill preserved New Jersey's trifecta. Leftist Democrats flipped 13 Virginia House seats (+13 net) and 5-7 in New Jersey's Assembly (supermajority, +5 net). In 7 partisan mayoral races (of 38), Democrats netted +1. City - Winner - Party - Hold or Flip? - Notes New York City - Zohran Mamdani - Democrat (DSA) - Hold - 1M+ votes; youth surge (75% under-30s). Atlanta - Andre Dickens - Democrat - Hold - Infrastructure focus. Cincinnati - Aftab Pureval - Democrat - Hold - Beat GOP challenger. Detroit - Mary Sheffield - Democrat - Hold - First female mayor in 12 years. Miami - Daniella Levine Cava - Democrat - Flip (from R) - Latino rebound key. Minneapolis - Betsy Hodges - Democrat - Hold - Progressive wins. Jersey City - Jim McGreevey - Democrat - Hold - Runoff pending. Legislative Gains and Local Shifts: 97 specials yielded +12-15 gains, including Mississippi's 3 seats (eroding GOP supermajority — 2/3 veto override threshold). Georgia PSC (Public Service Commission): +2 flips (first Dem statewide since 2006); Pennsylvania Supreme Court: 3 Dem retentions (yes/no incumbent votes). Ballot Initiatives: Dems unite, Selective Voter Pushback on Polarisation 18 of 24 measures passed (15 progressive/Dem-leaning, e.g., expanded services). California's Prop 50 (redistricting—map redrawing): 52%-48% yes, enabling 5 Dem House seats in 2026. Maine's red-flag law (firearm removals for at-risk individuals); Colorado's school meals tax on high earners: Passed. Pennsylvania voter ID (photo requirement): 51%-49%, no. Six House specials: 3-3 split (no net change). Despite such an onslaught from the opposition supported by diametrically opposite forces like Communists, Leftists, Socialists, Jihadis, Globalists, Colonialists, Wokeists, Racists and Supremacists, Trump-led Republicans have succeeded in maintaining their thin majority in the US House of Representatives. Dissecting the Virginia Flip: Polarisation's Local Echo Virginia's flip — from Youngkin's 2021 GOP win to Spanberger's 13.5-point lead — epitomised the Trump Administration-led polarising effect: Rallying opposition Dems in reaction while splintering Republicans in power. Spanberger's takes on education (teacher shortages, anti-voucher) and costs (energy, housing) won independents 60%-35%, flipping red enclaves like Spotsylvania (first Dem win since 1985). Earle-Sears' tax/education freedom pitch faltered amid GOP cultural overreach (transgender issues: 3% voter priority). Strategy favoured Spanberger (56%-44% polls; Barack Hussein Obama/union endorsements). Historical out-party wins (11/12 post-presidential cycles) aided, but GOP infighting (Earle-Sears distractions) amplified Trump's drag—39% approval, shutdown/layoffs hitting 320K VA jobs (53% economic concern). Jones's scandal (violent texts) didn't stick, per Spanberger's disavowal. Trump's energy/tax wins stabilised markets (3.8% Q2 GDP), but inflation (3.2%) and labour strains alienated moderates, including Hispanics (+12 pts Dem in Manassas Park). Broader Lesson: Polarisation Unites Foes, Fractures Base The +42 Dem net reflected Trump's success in rallying opponents — cultural wedges — while Republicans remained somewhat "uncontrolled" and reactive. Trump blamed "shutdown and no ballot presence," but GOP fingers pointed inward: Poor candidates (Ciattarelli), weak messaging, and alienating outreach. In NJ, Gateway Tunnel threats mixed with local tax gripes; Georgia PSC: Utility frustrations amid energy wins. Mississippi: SNAP cuts + incumbency woes broke supermajorities. Trump's DOGE cuts ($160B) and border security (94% drop) earned base loyalty but risked Hispanic/South Asian erosion—Latinos rebounded +8 pts Dem (NJ/VA flips); Hindu/Sikh/Jain/Buddhist voters, increasingly GOP-leaning via economic ties (e.g., bipartisan caucuses), cooled on perceived overreach (e.g., deportation fears, cultural insensitivity). As one strategist noted: "Polarisation unites Dems; we must unite without alienating." Demographic Tides: Alienation Risks for GOP NYC's Mamdani leveraged 40% non-white demographics (Black/Hispanic +30 pts) and youth (75% under-30s). Suburbs (+10 pts Dem) and Latinos (+8 pts, flipping NJ/VA counties) signalled backlash. Young (65% Dem, +10 pts); women (+12 gap); college whites (62%, +7 pts) drove MI/PA leftist gains. Urban Asians/Blacks fuelled GA; Brookings projects non-whites at 50% electorate by 2045. GOP caveats: Young men (-5 pts Dem); but Hispanic/South Asian drift (Hindus/Sikhs/Jains/Buddhists: Growing GOP via economy, yet alienated by rhetoric) demands caution. Electorate: 45% non-white (up from 40% 2020), 62% 50+. Demographics: 2025 Dem Support - Shift from 2024 Key Locales Latinos 68% +8 pts NJ/VA counties (+12 Manassas) Young (18-29) 65% +10 pts NYC/VA suburbs College Whites 62% +7 pts NoVA/NJ Women 58% +12 gap PA Erie/GA Independents 55% +19 pts VA/NJ govs Implications: Time for Republican Unity and Caution This +42 Dem sweep echoes off-year norms (out-party surges), but Trump's polarisation — uniting foes via shutdown/tariffs — left Republicans reactive and divided, costing seats despite remarkable economic anchors (3.8% GDP, low gas). Prop 50 eyes 5 House flips; VA trifecta aids redistricting. Brookings warns off-years predict midterms imperfectly, but GOP (Grand Old Party, ie Republicans) must unite proactively — cautiously courting Hispanics/South Asians (e.g., via bipartisan caucuses, economic focus) without alienating via overreach. As Gingrich urged: Motivate the base without losing 2028 voters. As Vivek Ramaswamy said, “There are two key lessons for Republicans. Listen carefully. Number one: our side needs to focus on affordability. Make the American Dream affordable. Bring down costs, electric costs, grocery costs, healthcare costs and housing costs. And lay out how we're gonna do it. And number two, cut out the identity politics. It doesn't suit Republicans. It's not for us. That's the woke Left's game, not ours. We don't care about the colour of your skin or your religion. We care about the content of your character. That's what who we are." Vivek Ramaswamy rightly touched upon the issue of identity politics plaguing sections of MAGA and the GOP. President Donald Trump posted on social media exhorting the party, “TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT AND SHUTDOWN WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT. REPUBLICANS, TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER! GET BACK TO PASSING LEGISLATION AND VOTER REFORM!". It is true that Senate filibuster is the roadblock the leftist Democrats are using to their benefit at the cost of the nation for winning opening gains in elections. Time to galvanise the party to end the filibuster as Trump has rightly pointed out. Bottomline Left vs. Right Polarisation won battles for Trump in 2024; left won in 2025, taking undue advantage of the transitional circumstances, the unity of the right will win wars for Republicans in 2026 and 2028. Republicans, unite and hold on to your base. Do not alienate supporters. End the filibuster roadblock and deliver at jet speed on the promises of affordability and unity.

Nov 06, 2025
Ramaharitha Pusarla

The Strategic Reality of Trump’s G2 Reset

With his trademark social post, “The G2 will be convening shortly”, Trump drew global attention to the anticipated trade talks between the US and China at Busan in South Korea. Beijing long sought parity with Washington. By calling the meeting ‘G2’, Trump has fulfilled the CCP’s long-cherished Chinese Dream. By placing China in the same league, Trump lent legitimacy to China’s superpower ambitions. The acknowledgement of duopoly by Trump is an emphatic victory for Xi, struggling with economic slowdown, high unemployment crises, deflationary pressures and oversupply. The recently concluded fourth plenum of the CCP, held ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, silently set the strategic tone. Though the focus remained on domestic affairs, with many simply dismissing the plenum communiques as political propaganda, they often chart China’s long-term plans. For instance, prior to the 13th five-year plan in 2015, the CCP plenum released a decade-long industrial blueprint for development that culminated in the launch of ‘Make in China 2025’ in response to Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy. A decade hence, the Make in China has been extremely effective in thwarting Washington’s containment as Beijing achieved technological dominance in emerging technologies. Evolving the framework for the 15th five-year plan, the October plenum doubled down on achieving ‘self-sufficiency’ in ‘advanced manufacturing’. Taking note of the “complex and severe” international environment, the plenum has preferred a dialogue with the US rather than “decoupling and confrontation” with the underlying motive being “within crises lie opportunities, and crises can be transformed into opportunities”. Days after the plenum, the fifth round of trade talks between the US and China in Kuala Lumpur agreed to an extension of the trade truce beyond November 10th. Interestingly, the readout of the Xi-Trump meeting issued by the Chinese side noted, “Xi stressed that dialogue is better than confrontation”. China’s calibrated and measured response is at odds with the unmissable Trump’s exuberance, who boasted of a massive success in trade talks. But beneath the veneer of Trump’s proclaimed success of the US-China trade deal lies an inexorable truth of the temporary suspension of implementation of the rare earth export control measures announced on October 9 for one year. This implies that the earlier announcement on rare-earth curbs in April by China would still be in vogue. Trump reduced Fentanyl tariffs to 10% and suspended the implementation of the 50% penetration rule, 301 investigative measures for one year. In turn, China has also agreed to suspend the implementation of non-tariff countermeasures against the US for one year. Countries reached a consensus on anti-drug cooperation on fentanyl, and leaders agreed to work together for global economic stability. In all, Trump has trimmed the trade tariffs to 47% from 57%, lower than India's. China pledged to purchase 12 million metric tonnes (MMT) of soybeans this year and an additional 25 MMT for the next three years to stabilise ties. Beijing has also agreed to terminate investigations targeting US companies and resume trade from Nexperia facilities in China. Beijing’s blockade of Nexperia chip shipments sent shock waves across the European automotive sector. China released its press note on October 30, hours after the summit, White House’s Fact Sheet was out on November 1st. This gave upbeat Trump to revel in self-promotion as he effusively rated his meeting with Xi as “12 on the scale of 10”. By averting immediate escalation, both leaders secured a temporary reprieve from the retaliatory countermeasures. Yet, Trump’s climbdown reflected America’s waning economic leverage. He unleashed the tariff trade war to target China. But, given America’s reliance on China for critical minerals, he was compelled to take a restrained approach. By deferring the rare earth controls by one year, Xi avoided a serious trade escalation and demonstrated to the World who holds the cards. A tight leash on rare-earth exports can potentially choke the US economy. Back in 1992, on his tour to Baotou rare earth facilities, in Inner Mongolia, Deng Xiaoping stated, “The Middle East has its oil; China has rare earths”. Planning ahead of time, understanding the importance of rare earths, China’s industrial policy strategically prioritised them. While Beijing invested all its forces to dominate crucial mineral mining, refining and processing, General Motors of the US began divesting from rare earths. Countries should have paid heed to the said and unsaid words of Chinese leaders who were preparing to weaponise these crucial minerals. But the US, smitten by an industrial strategy paralysis, allowed the sale of GM’s Magnequench in Indiana to a consortium which had two sons-in-law of Deng on the board. The unit closed by the mid-2000s. Around the same time, the rare-earth reserve in Mountain Pass Mine, located in the Mojave Desert, which catered to 60 to 70% of global supplies, was ordered to shut down by the Environmental Protection Agency due to wastewater leakages. It was the world’s second-largest mine. While the US lagged, through export subsidies and asymmetric VAT systems, China favoured its domestic manufacturers. By the late 2000s, when the US stopped producing rare earths, China took the lead. Though Molycorp tried to revive the Mountain Pass in 2008, Chinese export quotas turned the market tide. By lifting curbs on exports after the diplomatic row with Japan in 2010, China exported rare earths at low profit margins. Backed by government subsidies, Chinese companies flooded the global markets, making the business unsustainable for others. After decades of policy paralysis, the US is making efforts to secure the rare earth supply chain through “Operation Warp Speed”. Treasury Secretary confidently remarked that European and Asian countries would join the US in developing reliable supply chains. Trump has alienated friends and allies with tariffs, fostering reluctance among countries to join Washington’s initiative. Even if the US aggressively pushes for self-reliance now, its efforts might at least take 5-7 years to yield tangible results. Having squandered decades of strategic opportunity, Washington finds itself playing catch-up to match an ascendant China. Endowed with substantial reserves of critical minerals, China has astutely mastered the technology to mine and process rare earths for decades. Controlling more than 69% of rare earth reserves and 90% of processing capacity, Beijing has also systematically acquired rare-earth mining rights from various countries to strengthen its dominance. Risking significant environmental dangers over many years, China has monopolised rare earth processing. Imposing tight controls on rare-earth exports, China not only signalled its willingness to wield economic coercion but also unintentionally exposed the United States’ strategic vulnerabilities and unpreparedness. US dependence on rare-earth far exceeds China’s requirement of US soybeans. With zero US soybean imports this harvest season, Beijing showed who held the cards in these trade negotiations. China trumped the US at its own game of economic warfare. By blocking rare earth exports and rerouting agricultural imports from Latin America, Xi has shown the world who is the boss. With few cards against Beijing, Trump wasn’t into hard bargaining with Xi. Instead, he was courting Xi to defer the tight regulations on critical mineral exports. For all the brouhaha, countries, at best, reached a status quo. A comprehensive trade deal remains elusive as of now, with no major breakthrough on the horizon. Trump is on a weak wicket, and the Republican containment policy of China hardly resonates with the American public. The 2025 Chicago Council Survey shows that 53% Americans favour friendly cooperation and engagement with China and only 50% perceive China as a threat to the US, down from 58% in 2023. Negative perceptions about China have rebounded, with Democrats holding the most favourable view of Beijing. As per the survey, Americans see the US and China as the top two global powers. 53% believe that America is strong militarily, while the verdict is narrowly split about the economic power- 34% see the US as a major economic power, and 33% perceive China as economically stronger. Given the rising inflation, Americans are rejecting high tariffs against China. However, a whopping 82% of Americans refuse the idea of granting China the sphere of influence of Asia. The survey may not be a true reflection of American society, riven by partisan affiliations playing a role in shifting attitudes. However, by and large, the underlying message of diminishing dominance of the US is clear. The age of American unipolarity is nearing an end. Trump started the trade war to bully China, got bullied in turn. Forced to dial down, pandering to Beijing, he hasn’t raised the issue of Taiwan or Chinese purchases of Russian oil during his meeting with Xi. Though the US still leads in innovation, design and advanced technologies, a retreating Washington is now focused on bolstering its hemispheric dominance. For the first time since the Cold War, America has grudgingly ceded ground to China, accepting its global rise. Bargaining from a position of weakness, Trump preferred to woo Xi to avert a plausible collapse of strategic industries due to the lack of rare-earth minerals. Trump’s unpredictability and transactionalism have eroded mutual trust even in alliance partnerships. Paradoxically, just as many Americans remain reluctant to decouple with China, Southeast Asian and European nations—despite territorial disputes and concerns over Beijing’s mercantilist practices—are choosing to manage their relationships with China rather than confront it. At the same time, they continue to maintain strong ties with the United States. While President Trump hastily framed the meeting as a “G2,” hinting at a global duopoly, the geopolitical reality today defies such binary divisions. The world can no longer be neatly delineated into spheres of influence or rigid blocs. Recognising their deep interdependencies, countries are increasingly prioritising strategic interests—engaging with major powers while retaining their strategic autonomy. The logic of G2 is misplaced in the contemporary geopolitical arena with multiple players and many poles. The rise of Middle Powers like India, Russia, Germany, Turkey and GCC nations and their growing relevance in the new global order hints at a new reset. However, as the great power competition between the US and China intensifies, the world will witness a restructuring of supply chains and a strategic realignment of countries to safeguard their national interests. Clearly, the archaic framework of G2 capable of imposing its decisions on the rest of the World is a relic of the Cold War era. Though Trump’s G2 offhand reference of G2 is the strategic reality of their mutual interdependencies, an impulsive compartmentalisation of spheres of influence undermines global stability. References Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with China – The White House Why China curbing rare earth exports is a huge blow to the US America Gave Away Rare Earths - by Daniel Kishi Americans Reverse Course on US-China Competition | Chicago Council on Global Affairs

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