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Feb 22, 2026
Digital Nomad

The Arithmetic of Survival: Can AIADMK Reclaim Anti-Incumbency Mandate?

This analysis is part of a series on the structural shifts within the Tamil Nadu political landscape, moving from the establishment pole of the DMK and the cinematic disruption of the TVK to the evolving state of the AIADMK. This piece examines the traditional second pole of the Dravidian duopoly, which is currently navigating a period of internal and strategic transition. For the sophisticated observer, understanding the AIADMK is essential as it remains the primary vehicle for anti-incumbency sentiment despite the challenges to its institutional cohesion. We shall apply the same clinical framework of arithmetic versus chemistry to evaluate whether this historic organisation can reclaim its position as the natural alternative to the ruling front. By moving beyond the superficialities of current media narratives, we aim to provide a strategic verdict on the party's viability as the 2026 assembly elections approach. Historically, the AIADMK has demonstrated remarkable electoral resilience, often outperforming the DMK in returning to power through consecutive terms or by leveraging deep-rooted social legacies. The party remains the most successful political outfit in the state’s legislative history, having secured a majority on seven occasions. This success was traditionally anchored in the enduring legacy of M.G. Ramachandran and the singular charisma of J. Jayalalithaa, whose leadership ensured that the party was viewed as the more compassionate Dravidian alternative by the rural and female electorate. Even when faced with significant anti-incumbency, the AIADMK often benefited from a softer landing than its rival, as the "MGR legacy" provided a consistent floor for its vote share that transcended administrative fatigue. This inherent stability allowed the party to remain a formidable contender in every electoral cycle, serving as a reliable anchor for the state's bipolar political identity. The period following the death of the former CM J. Jayalalithaa in late 2016 initiated a phase of visible weakening, primarily driven by a protracted leadership feud between Edappadi K. Palaniswami and O. Panneerselvam. This internal fracture was allegedly exacerbated by the strategic interventions of the central BJP command, which sought to maintain a degree of influence over the state’s second-largest political machinery. The subsequent consolidation of power by EPS involved a series of tactical missteps that forced out regional satraps and deepened the divide within the party's traditional strongholds. The consolidation of power by Edappadi K. Palaniswami has triggered a fundamental realignment of the Tamil Nadu political landscape, characterised by the systematic departure of the most seasoned regional satraps of the AIADMK. The exodus began in earnest with T.T.V. Dhinakaran, whose expulsion in 2017 hived off a significant portion of the cadre and organisational machinery, particularly in the southern and delta regions. This fracture deepened significantly in 2022 with the ouster of O. Panneerselvam, the perennial choice of Jayalalithaa for successor. By February 2026, Panneerselvam finds himself politically marooned, publicly commending the governance of M.K. Stalin while his dwindling band of supporters weighs the utility of a formal alliance or merger with the ruling front. The most recent blow to the western stronghold occurred in late 2025 when K.A. Sengottaiyan, the Erode face of the party for half a century, was expelled and promptly assumed the role of chief coordinator for the high-level administrative committee of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). The departure of Sengottaiyan is particularly symbolic as he was the quintessential loyalist who provided the AIADMK with its legendary logistical and grassroots depth. These departures have not merely weakened the unitary command in Royapettah but have directly fortified the DMK by providing M.K. Stalin with a vanguard of experienced lieutenants. Figures such as V. Senthil Balaji and Thanga Tamil Selvan have been joined by recent entrants like V. Maitreyan and R. Vaithilingam, who transitioned from being architects of AIADMK victories to becoming enforcers of the administrative and electoral strategies of Stalin. By elevating these former adversaries to key ministerial and party roles, Stalin has transformed them into a bridgehead to penetrate traditional AIADMK fortresses in the Kongu and southern belts. This strategy of organisational hollowing has allowed the DMK to absorb decades of institutional knowledge, effectively turning the second-tier leadership of the AIADMK into the very instruments that now ensure the dominance of the DMK heading into the 2026 assembly elections. The transition from a charismatic autocracy to a fragmented collective has created an opposition vacuum devoid of meaningful policy alternatives. Devoid of the centripetal force of a singular mass leader, local units now operate as independent entities prioritising regional survival over a coordinated state challenge. This lack of a unified offensive strategy allows the incumbent administration to navigate its term with minimal institutional friction. The leadership has further compromised its standing by mishandling alliance partners such as the PMK and DMDK while failing to define a clear identity in relation to the BJP. Anchored in the home base of Salem rather than the state capital, the current leadership style is perceived as passive and removed from the public square. This strategic drift is exacerbated by demands to sideline popular regional figures like K. Annamalai as a condition for unity, even as traditional allies drift toward the rival camp. Strategic passivity has translated into electoral contractions as the leadership retreats to a defensive posture within Western strongholds. By ceding urban and northern territories to more aggressive adversaries, the party has demoralised its cadre and diminished its visibility in the national media cycle. This geographical retreat suggests institutional fatigue and an internal priority for survival over the acquisition of power. Such a perceived lack of appetite for confrontation has created an opening for third-pole entrants to position themselves as the authentic champions of a disgruntled citizenry. The insistence on controlling alliance terms at the expense of ground-level popularity has isolated the party from potential growth segments. By focusing on the removal of perceived rivals rather than expanding its ideological reach, the leadership has placed an artificial ceiling on its electoral potential. This inward-looking approach has alienated traditional allies and left the organisation appearing out of sync with a demography that increasingly values assertive leadership. Without a fundamental pivot toward a proactive opposition model, the party risks a permanent descent into the role of a junior partner within its own historical domain. Despite these institutional crises, the AIADMK retains significant structural positives that could facilitate a sudden swing in its favour as 2026 approaches. The party possesses deep organisational penetration at the booth and ward levels, a machinery that remains far superior to that of any new entrant or smaller regional party. To consolidate its base, the AIADMK has aggressively introduced early poll promises targeting women and rural voters, including a Rs 2000 monthly assistance scheme that doubles the current government's entitlement. This competitive populism aims to reclaim the party’s traditional image as the primary provider for the underprivileged, potentially neutralising the ruling party’s welfare momentum. For the feet on the ground analyst, the party's core vote share remains remarkably resilient, particularly in the western and southern districts where the two-leaves symbol still carries immense historical weight. If the administration’s anti-incumbency matures into a desire for established stability rather than cinematic novelty, the AIADMK’s existing framework provides the most logical destination for a disgruntled electorate. Current opinion poll data presents a nuanced prognosis, positioning the AIADMK as the primary challenger while acknowledging a potential erosion of its monopoly on the opposition vote. While internal surveys from new players like the TVK claim to capture over twenty per cent of the vote, realistic analytical papers suggest that the DMK-led alliance remains the frontrunner, with the AIADMK-led front acting as the strongest legitimate contender. The prognosis for the party is highly dependent on its ability to maintain internal cohesion and enforce campaign discipline within a broad opposition alliance. Forecasts indicate that if the AIADMK can consolidate the anti-DMK vote and prevent further fragmentation among its traditional allies, it could significantly dent the current ruling majority. However, if the forecasted third pole successfully converts first-time and disillusioned voters on a large scale, the AIADMK risks being squeezed into a third-place finish in critical urban segments. Ultimately, the party's survival as a major pole depends on whether it can prove that its traditional machinery is more effective at converting discontent into seats than the unproven chemistry of its newer rivals.

Feb 20, 2026
Vladimir Adityanaath

72 Hours That Tested Bangladesh’s Democracy: Seven Hindu Families Targeted in Coordinated Assault by Jamaat-e-Islami led coalition in Noakhali

Over fifty men and women stood shoulder to shoulder in a silent human chain beneath a pale afternoon sky in Sonadia Union under Hatiya Upazila of Noakhali District. Some held handwritten placards while others stood empty-handed. All of them stood with the same demands of protection, justice and recognition. They were residents of Hatiya upazila in Noakhali district, including at least seven Hindu families who say that within 72 hours of Bangladesh’s 13th National Parliamentary Election, their homes were attacked, looted, vandalised and set on fire in multiple instances. From Voting to Violence According to protesters and affected families, armed cadres associated with the Jamaat-e-Islami-led coalition, acting alongside locally organised criminal networks, initiated coordinated assaults across Sonadia, Burirchar, and Char Ishwar unions within hours of the election results being declared. Survivors have named Mahiuddin, Hannan “Dubai,” Osman, and Zahirul Islam as principal organisers, alleging that the attacks were executed with the support and participation of several Jamaat-affiliated extremists, including Naim, Kausar, Jewel, Shakib, Hassan, Nishan, and Jiton. Residents describe a pattern that began with political tension on polling day and escalated rapidly once results were announced. Victory processions, they say, morphed into intimidation drives. Homes were entered forcibly. Doors were smashed. Families were beaten. At least 10 houses were vandalised and looted in BanglaBazaar and Riyaz Market of Sonadia Union by armed N.C.P. cadres (a coalition partner of Jamaat-e-Islami) after the election results were announced. On 13 February, Deepak Chandra Das and his son were beaten in a marketplace after being accused of voting for the “ধানের শীষ” (Sheaf of Paddy), the electoral symbol of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). That same day, Kaakan Chandra Das was struck with a hammer en route to the market and the money he carried in his pocket was robbed. Across multiple households, victims report: a) Forced entry by organised groups. b) Cash and gold ornaments taken. c) Livestock attacked, resulting in the miscarriage of a goat and injuries to several cows. d) Direct warnings to leave the area. For rural minority families whose economic survival depends on small property and cattle, such attacks are not incidental but targeted economic destabilisation. Homes Under Siege Mridul Chandra Das’s residence in Ward Number 6 of Burirchar Union was surrounded by armed men who accused him of harbouring supporters of the B.N.P. party. Walls were hacked with machetes; doors were kicked down while his three daughters remained inside. The family stayed put, fearing that flight would expose the women to greater danger. According to the family, security forces did not respond promptly even after receiving direct complaints about the ongoing assaults. Local physician Khanesh Das reports that he was threatened with a weapon during the unrest and now lives in fear, reluctant to step beyond his doorstep. Fire as Collective Punishment In Char Ishwar Union’s Mula Market, seven houses belonging to H. K. Sardar were burned to ashes overnight. A vehicle and two CNG auto-rickshaws were also torched. He reports that cadres associated with the N.C.P. had threatened him the previous day for refusing to vote in favour of the Jamaat-e-Islami-led coalition. Arson in post-election settings is rarely random. It functions as collective punishment and is a warning that political transition can carry communal consequences. The State’s Response The Officer-in-Charge of Hatiya Police Station has stated that written complaints would be investigated, noting that some matters were reportedly being addressed through “social compromise.” Such language, while common in rural dispute resolution, sits uneasily beside allegations of coordinated assault and arson. Criminal violence is not a matter for compromise but a matter for prosecution. As of this writing, victims have demanded a transparent investigation, identification of perpetrators through available footage, and security guarantees. The Shadow of 2001 For many in Bangladesh’s Hindu minority, these events do not exist in isolation. Following the 2001 parliamentary election, supporters of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami were widely accused by domestic and international human rights organisations of carrying out a pogrom against Hindus across multiple districts. Reports documented assaults, sexual violence, looting and forced displacement for months after that election. The scale and severity of 2001 left a lasting scar in the minds of Bangladeshi Hindus. The fear of people like Khanesh Das is not abstract; it is historical. A Democratic Fault Line Democracy is not merely the mechanics of voting. It is the assurance that participation does not invite reprisal. If citizens can be attacked for suspected ballots, electoral participation becomes a calculated risk. If arson and assault are met with informal compromise rather than swift prosecution, impunity hardens. Bangladesh’s democratic credibility does not hinge solely on turnout figures or victory margins. It rests on whether minorities can vote and continue living the next day securely. The human chain in Sonadia Union was small. But its symbolism was large. It represented citizens who believe in the electoral process enough to demand its protection. Democracy is not proven by counting votes but by protecting voters. That protection faltered in Noakhali during those 72 hours. Whether it is restored through transparent investigation and accountability will determine not only justice for seven families but confidence in the system itself.

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The Arithmetic of Survival: Can AIADMK Reclaim Anti-Incumbency Mandate?

72 Hours That Tested Bangladesh’s Democracy: Seven Hindu Families Targeted in Coordinated Assault by Jamaat-e-Islami led coalition in Noakhali

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