Ireland is expected to form another coalition government after the three largest parties gained around equal shares in the country's parliamentary election, according to an exit poll issued late Friday.

The poll, conducted after voting ended at 10 pm (2200 GMT), shows that the centre-right party Fine Gael was the top choice for 21% of voters. Its coalition partner, the centre-right Fianna Fail, had 19.5%, while the left-wing opposition party Sinn Fein received 21.1%. The survey, carried out by Ipsos B&A with 5,018 voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points. The current figures only provide an indication of the results and don't reveal which parties will form the next government. Ballot counting begins on Saturday morning and it will take several hours or even days for the full results to be available.

The outcome will show if Ireland goes against the global trend of incumbents being voted out due to dissatisfaction with the pandemic, international instability, and rising living costs. Sinn Fein, which wants to reunite Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland, might become the largest party in the 174-seat Dáil (lower house of parliament), but it may find it difficult to gather enough coalition partners to form a government. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have said they will not form alliances with Sinn Fein. The outgoing government in Ireland was led by two political parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, which have dominated Irish politics for the past 100 years. While both have similar centre-right policies, they have been rivals since the 1920s civil war.

After the 2020 election, which resulted in a near tie, the two parties formed a coalition. They agreed to share Cabinet positions and take turns as Taoiseach (Prime Minister). Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin became Taoiseach for the first half of the term, and then Fine Gael's Leo Varadkar took over in December 2022. However, Varadkar stepped down unexpectedly in March, passing the role to the current Taoiseach, Simon Harris. In the 2020 election, Sinn Fein made a major impact by winning the most votes, but it was excluded from the government because Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael refused to work with them. They cited Sinn Fein's left-wing policies and its historical links to the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which was involved in violent conflict in Northern Ireland for many years.

Ireland uses a proportional representation system, where each of the 43 areas elects multiple representatives, and voters rank their choices. This system allows smaller parties and independent candidates with strong local support to win seats. The upcoming election features many independent candidates, including local campaigners, far-right activists, and even well-known figures like reputed crime boss Gerry "the Monk" Hutch. In Ireland, the cost of living, especially housing, has become a major issue in political campaigns. The country is facing a severe housing shortage, caused by a lack of new homes being built during the economic boom (the Celtic Tiger years) and the downturn that followed the 2008 global financial crisis.

During the crisis, there was little construction, and when the economy started recovering, the focus was on building offices and hotels rather than homes, according to John-Mark McCafferty, the CEO of housing charity Threshold. As a result, house prices have skyrocketed, rents are increasing, and homelessness is on the rise. After a decade of economic growth, McCafferty points out that Ireland now has resources to address these issues, including 13 billion euros ($13.6 billion) in back taxes that the European Union has ordered Apple to pay. However, the country is still working to fix its long-standing infrastructure problems.

Ireland, a country traditionally known for sending people abroad, is now facing a challenge with immigration. Recently, over 100,000 Ukrainians fleeing war, along with many others escaping poverty and conflict from the Middle East and Africa, have arrived. This country of 5.4 million people is struggling to find housing for all the asylum seekers, leading to the use of tent camps and temporary shelters. These conditions have caused tension and protests. A stabbing incident outside a Dublin school, allegedly involving an Algerian man, triggered violent riots—the worst Ireland had seen in decades. While Ireland doesn't have a large far-right political party, far-right voices on social media are trying to stir up anti-immigrant sentiment. Some independent candidates, who oppose immigration, are also seeking election. This issue is affecting support for Sinn Fein, as some of its working-class supporters are upset with the party's pro-immigration stance.

The exit poll confirms what earlier opinion polls suggested: voter support is divided among Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein, smaller parties, and various independents. Before the vote, experts predicted the most likely outcome would be another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition, possibly with a smaller party or some independents playing a key role. This is still the most probable result. The main question now is which smaller group will support the government this time, said Eoin O'Malley, a political scientist at Dublin City University. Forming a coalition is mainly about adding a different element to what is essentially the same moderate government each time.