India's government has given an early indication that it is willing to cooperate with the new US president and prevent a trade war by agreeing to cooperate with Donald Trump's administration to locate and repatriate all of its citizens who are living in the US illegally.  

According to persons acquainted with the situation, the two nations have jointly identified some 18,000 illegal Indian migrants in the US who should be repatriated. The individuals, who asked not to be named because the conversations are private, noted that the number may be significantly more than as it's unknown how many undocumented Indian migrants are in the US. India is striving behind the scenes, like many other countries, to placate the Trump administration and escape the worst of its trade threats. One of Trump's signature campaign promises has been to crack down on illegal immigration. The incoming president pushed to ban birthright citizenship and activate troops on the US-Mexico border within hours of his inauguration on Monday, fulfilling that commitment.  

In exchange, India hopes the Trump administration would defend the legal immigration pathways its residents use to enter the United States, specifically the H-1B program for skilled workers and student visas. Official data shows that over three-fourths of the 386,000 H-1B visas were issued to Indian citizens in 2023. Any delay in taking back illegal migrants from the US could negatively impact India’s labour and mobility agreements with other countries, according to sources. With a shortage of jobs in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has recently signed migration agreements with several countries, including Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Israel and others. 

“As part of India-US cooperation on migration and mobility, both sides are engaged in a process to deter illegal migration. This is being done to create more avenues for legal migration from India to the US,” said Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs. “The latest deportation of Indian nationals from the US by a chartered flight is a result of this cooperation,” he added, referring to an October repatriation action. India makes up a small portion of illegal migrants to the US, with its citizens representing about 3% of all unlawful crossings reported by US border patrol in fiscal 2024, according to data from US Customs and Border Protection.

In comparison, countries in Latin America like Mexico, Venezuela, and Guatemala contribute a much larger share. However, the number of Indian illegal migrants has been gradually increasing in recent years. This rise is especially noticeable at the less busy northern US border, where Indians now make up nearly a quarter of all illegal crossings and are the largest group of migrants stopped at that border point.

A report released last year by the Department of Homeland Security indicated that as of 2022, there were about 220,000 undocumented Indian immigrants living in the United States, while the exact number is unknown. India has shown a cooperative approach toward US border enforcement efforts, including working with officials in the Biden administration. In October, the Department of Homeland Security announced it had organised a "large-scale" repatriation flight, sending back over 100 Indian nationals who did not have the right to stay in the US. This follows the deportation of more than 1,100 Indian citizens in the previous year.

According to people familiar with the discussions, bringing back illegal migrants could help Modi achieve his goal of discouraging secessionist movements abroad, such as the Khalistan movement, which aims to create a separate Sikh state in India. India has taken strong action against this movement, and officials believe that some of its supporters in the US and Canada are illegal migrants.

Despite welcoming the new government and appearing to have cordial relations with Trump, Modi is wary of any erratic behaviour from the US president that can spark an expensive trade war. Trump has pledged to impose reciprocal duties on India after repeatedly complaining that the South Asian country's high import taxes harm American companies. Trump has directed his attention toward his near neighbours since taking office. The president of the United States announced Monday that he will slap up to 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico by February 1st, accusing them of "allowing vast numbers of people" to enter the nation. Trump lashed out at Canada, calling it "a very bad abuser" for fentanyl and migrants entering its border.    

The reason why the northern US border has become such a major entry point for undocumented migrants from India is not entirely clear, but the Niskanen Center, a think tank based in Washington, suggests that two possible explanations include the relative ease of travel to Canada for Indians and the 2023 suspension of visa-free travel to El Salvador for Indians.