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Jun 27, 2025
Ramaharitha Pusarla

Double Standards or Realpolitik? U.S. Playbook on Nuclear Brinkmanship Part 2

The threat from Iran’s Islamic regime to Israel is clear, and a nuclear-armed Iran can be an existential danger to Israel. While an inverted logic continues to label Israel as the aggressor, a close look at the Ayatollah’s remarks approves of a jihadi war against Israel. Iran’s Axis of Resistance is not a figment of imagination as Khamenei at a prayer sermon in February 2012 said, “We have intervened in the anti-Israel struggle, and the results have been the victories in the 33 days war [the 2006 war with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon] and the 22 days war [Israel’s attacks on the Gaza strip in December 2008]. From now on, we will also support any nation, any group that confronts the Zionist regime; we will help them, and we are not shy about doing so. Israel will go, it must not survive, and it will not”2. Iran’s deeply entrenched anti-Zionism gradually evolved into a series of proxy wars- manifesting in cyberattacks, maritime sabotages and acts of terrorism. The ongoing Gaza conflict intensified the rivalry, culminating in two rounds of direct missile and drone retaliatory strikes in April and October 2024. Operation Rising Lion has established Israeli dominance over Iranian airspace. With excellent operational synchronisation and superior Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, Israel prevailed over Iran in an operation that had tacit American approval. Even Israel’s cities, military and intelligence installations and economic hubs also suffered severe damage in the retaliatory strikes. Vowing a complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Israel refused to back down, raising fears of a full-blown war. A war in the Middle East dragged into its ninth day, in an unprecedented operation- ‘Midnight Hammer’, seven US B-2 bombers hurled 14 bunker bombs at the Iranian nuclear facilities- Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Pulling out a shocker, President Trump sent out a chilling message through a comprehensive and devastating bombing. Since assuming office, Trump repeatedly stated, “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon…. You cannot have peace if Iran has a nuclear bomb”. Shortly, as a retribution, Iran announced “Operation Tidings of Victory” to attack US bases in the region. However, barring America’s Al-Udeid base in Qatar, none have been hit. Iran had notified the US officials prior to the attack, minimising the losses, if any. Soon, Trump called for a ceasefire, and both countries, after their fair share of violations, abided by it. Terming the attacks on the US base in Qatar a “slap in the face”, the Iranian regime claimed victory much like Pakistan after Operation Sindoor. The eerie similarities don’t end there, as Trump’s social media posts on the ceasefire in both cases had the same template, with the only difference being a change in names. America’s blatant breach of Iran’s territorial airspace and the audacious air raid to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities sparked a global debate. Critics argue these actions undermine the UN, erode the foundations of international law and compromise the US’s moral standing in condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Far from reinforcing deterrence, US strikes might inadvertently prompt countries to pursue nuclear weapons as a safeguard against external intervention. On a different count, the US strikes have provided a temporary reprieve, enabling a broader momentum for the expansion of the Abraham Accords and the realignment of US Arab allies with Israel. A weakened Iran can shift the regional dynamics, opening new avenues for addressing the Gaza issue. Satellite imagery revealing dotted truck convoys outside Iran’s Fordow facility—captured just before US strikes—has fuelled speculation that enriched uranium was covertly relocated to secure locations. While a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure might stall its ambitions, it is unlikely to extinguish them. Armed with technological know-how, Iran’s path to developing nuclear weapons would be delayed, not derailed. The US justified its strikes on Iran citing its long-standing designation of a state sponsor of terrorism. Iran’s cultivated jihadi militia has ring-fenced Israel leading to regional insecurity. A parallel dynamic exists in the Indian sub-continent, where unmissable similarities emerge between the Islamic regime of Iran and the jihadi leadership in Pakistan. While Ayatollahs refused to bow down to US wishes, Pakistan has positioned itself as a compliant proxy of Western interests. In 1979, cleric Ayatollah seized power in Tehran - around the same time, Pakistan’s Zia-ul-Haq created the Afghan Mujahideen to take on the Soviet forces. Pakistan under Zia became the most important player in America’s fight against the Communist USSR. Aligning governance with Islamic laws, Zia Islamised Pakistan. Despite his distaste for Western values, Zia consciously aligned with the US. Capitalising on its strategic geographic location, Zia allowed Pakistan to become a launch pad for America’s strategic pursuits in the region. As a result, Pakistan continues to remain in the good books of America despite its indubitable reputation as the ‘mothership of terrorism’. Pakistan is home to several internationally proscribed terror outfits. Indeed, eight Americans were killed in the Pakistani-based Lashkar-e-Taiba Mumbai attacks in 2008. Grey-listed thrice by FATF for sponsoring terrorism, Ghazwa-e-Hind, the cornerstone of Pakistan’s anti-India policy, is an existential threat to India. The core tenets of Islamic regime of Iran and Pakistan are based on same jihadi ideology. But the US chose to turn a blind eye to Pakistan’s nuclear program and allowed it to accumulate a stockpile and make weapons. For decades, Pakistan wielded cross-border terrorism as a geopolitical tool to destabilise India. Yet, unlike Iran, Pakistan enjoys the status of a major non-NATO ally of the United States. Adroitly managing the US, Pakistan has evaded international censure and continues to acquire advanced weaponry from the US. Adeptly kow-towing to the US strategic interests, Pakistan amassed a nuclear arsenal on par with India, while Iran, for merely approaching that threshold, faced punitive strikes. Despite deep-rooted ideological divergences and lingering distrust, many Muslim-majority nations continue to pursue diplomatic engagement with the United States. While Islamic sentiment often shapes their foreign policy postures, geopolitical pragmatism prevails. Notably, Iran’s Supreme Leader has never concealed his antagonism toward Washington and never attempted to mend ties since the 1979 revolution. Post-US air strikes, the Middle East might still witness a protracted period of instability. The Islamic regime, backed by the IRGC, is still under control and back in the saddle. Operation Rising Lion, much like the Ukrainian attacks on Russia, has exposed the presence of Mossad’s robust undercover network. Given the magnitude of the internal sabotage, Iranian authorities have swung into action to identify the moles. Iranians are yearning for freedom and secular democracy. But any external intervention can push the country into further chaos. Pakistan and Iran, both epicentres of terrorism, pose a serious and imminent threat to global peace and stability. The spectre of a nuclear-armed state guided by a jihadi ideology is a geopolitical time bomb that demands urgent attention. While nations like North Korea and Iran face severe Western sanctions, Pakistan, despite its track record, continues to be shielded for its utility as a strategic ally. This glaring disparity in Western responses raises unsettling questions about the consistency and credibility of global non-proliferation efforts. References https://irandataportal.syr.edu/wp-content/uploads/the-most-important-problem-of-the-islamic-world-selected-statements-about-palestine.pdf https://www.bostonreview.net/articles/ganji-khamenei-israel/ https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/12/un-nuclear-watchdog-finds-iran-in-non-compliance-with-nuclear-obligations https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-sanctions-728b811da537abe942682e13a82ff8bd https://observer.co.uk/news/international/article/the-history-of-now-israel-and-iran https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/iran-israel-conflict-nuclear-strikes-how-secret-friends-turned-bitter-enemies/articleshow/121823591.cms

Jun 27, 2025
Ramaharitha Pusarla

Double Standards or Realpolitik? U.S. Playbook on Nuclear Brinkmanship Part 1

Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion on June 13th, the Middle East has been on the brink. Israeli fighter jets striking deep into the Iranian territory attacked nuclear facilities, missile strikes and the senior leadership. Drawing the first blood, Israel set Iran into a tizzy by systematically eliminating the senior ranks of military leaders and nuclear scientists. Since the October 7th Hamas terror attack, Israel has clinically neutralised Iranian proxies and reduced its sway. Through a string of assassinations, including Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, Israel brought Hamas and Hezbollah to their knees. Iran’s Islamic regime wields great influence in Lebanon, Syria and has a destabilising effect on Yemen and Iraq. Hezbollah’s losses and the fall of the Assad regime diminished Iran’s power and influence in the region and significantly weakened Iran’s axis of resistance. Israel and Iran have been strategic collaborators and friends before the radical Islamic ideology engulfed and roiled the relations. Iran transitioned to an Islamic regime with the takeover by the Ayatollahs in 1979. The Iranian revolution ushered the country into an Islamic ambit. Israel’s relations with Iran under the Pahlavi dynasty were friendly. Iran was among the second major-Muslim country after Turkey to recognise the Jewish State following its founding in 1948. Iran, along with India and Yugoslavia, was part of the special UN committee formed to formulate a future course for Palestine and voted against the UN’s partition plan for Palestine. Iran saw Israel as a key partner to counter the rising Arab nationalism and to maintain positive relations with the West. The ties took a brief hit under Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddegh in 1951, who wanted to nationalise the oil and expel the British. Following his ouster and the installation of the Shah in 1953, the ties blossomed, and countries exchanged ambassadors. As a part of the strategic ‘Periphery Doctrine’, Israel forged alliances with non-Arab states to counter hostile neighbours. In 1958, Israel, Turkey and Iran formed the “Alliance of Periphery” and solidified the “Trident” pact- an agreement encompassing intelligence sharing, economic cooperation and arms trade. Indeed, Mossad and the Iranian intelligence agency SAVAK collaborated closely, and Israel provided extensive technical support to help develop Iran’s military-industrial infrastructure. During the crippling Arab boycott and oil embargo, Iran emerged a major oil supplier to Israel helping Israel to circumvent the crisis. In return, Israel provided technological and agricultural assistance. Both countries jointly constructed a pipeline and supplied oil to Europe. Israel supported Iran’s covert efforts to assist the Kurdish separatists in Iraq. The 1979 overthrow of the Shah marked Iran’s transformation into an Islamic Republic under the leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The new clerical regime redefined Iran’s national identity around religiously driven anti-Zionism, severing decades of covert cooperation with Israel. In response, Israel shut down its embassy in Tehran, which was soon replaced by the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) mission. This dramatic realignment also prompted an exodus of many Iranian Jews, who fled the country amid rising hostility and uncertainty. Denouncing the US as “the Big Satan” and Israel as “Little Satan”, the clerical regime championed the Palestinian issue. The jihadi roadmap for the Islamic regime can be traced to the Khomeini’s “The Little Green Book” akin to the Mao Zedong’s “The Little Red Book”. Transforming the Palestinian cause into an Islamic cause, Khomeini declared every last Friday of Ramadan as Quds Day (Jerusalem is called al-Quds in Arabic), and held rallies across Iran in support of Palestine to brandish Iran’s Islamic credentials. The larger idea was to put the Arab countries allied to the US on the defensive. But through the 1980s, Israel considered Saddam Hussein of Iraq a greater threat than Khomeini’s Iran. Israel supplied military equipment to Iran during the long wars with Iraq and served as a conduit for US weapons to Iran during the Iran-Contra affair. As per CIA reports, contrary to American assessment, Israel believed Iran could be an important partner in promoting its interests in the region and eventually hoped that it could play a role in facilitating rapprochement between the US and Iran. Ironically, Khamenini portrayed Israel as a ‘usurper Zionist regime’; a tool of American imperialism. At the First Islamic Conference on December 4th, 1990, Khamenei expounded the goal of liberating Palestine, “Regarding, the Palestine issue, the problem is taking back Palestine, which means disappearance of Israel. There is no difference between the occupied territories before and after [the Arab-Israeli war of] 1967. Every inch of Palestinian land is an inch of Palestinians’ home. Any entity ruling Palestine is illegitimate unless it is Islamic and by Palestinians. Our position is what our late Imam (Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini) said, “Israel must disappear”. The Jews of Palestine can live there if they accept the Islamic government there. We are not against Jews. The issue is the illegal ownership of Muslims’ homes”1. Reiterating support for a new Palestine government, Khamenini in August 1991, said, “Solving the Palestinian problem entails destroying and eliminating the illegitimate government there, so that the true owners [of the land] can form a new government; Muslims, Christians, and Jews can live side by side. . . Our view regarding the Palestine issue is clear. We believe the solution is destroying the Israeli regime. Forty years have passed [since establishment of the state of Israel], and if another forty years passes, Israel must disappear, and will”2. Around the same time, Iran nurtured Hezbollah in Lebanon, which bombed a Jewish community centre and the Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992. Khamenini began backing the Islamist jihadi groups like Hamas and Palestine Islamic Jihadi groups stating, “The United States cannot solve the Palestinian problem to its own liking. The issue is like a bone choking them and, God willing, with Israel’s disappearance will be solved”2. This pathological hatred reached a crescendo with the election of a hardliner, President Ahmadinejad, in 2005, who hosted the Holocaust Denial Conference in Tehran. This irrevocably damaged Iran-Israel relations. In 1990s, Israel-Iran secret collaboration ended after Israel got a whiff of Iran’s nuclear pursuits. Iran’s nuclear program, which began under the Pahlavi dynasty, hit a pause during the Iranian revolution. But it secretly continued to pursue the program under the codename AMAD project. After the first reports of a nuclear enrichment centre surfaced in 2003, facing the prospect of censure, Iran agreed to sign the Tehran Agreement with Britain, France and Germany to suspend enrichment. However, huge inconsistencies uncovered by the IAEA led to the imposition of sanctions by the UNSC in 2006. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) Agreement between P (5+1) and Iran in 2015 provided limited relief after Iran agreed to cap enrichment at 3.7%. While publicly asserting its nuclear plan served civilian use, appearing to uphold commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and Additional Protocols, Iran covertly pursued enrichment activities. In 2018, a covert Mossad operation uncovered blueprints detailing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, revealing undisclosed weapons-related facilities. Contending that the checks under the JCPOA as inadequate, then President Trump withdrew from the JCPOA. From 2006, the covert hostilities escalated significantly as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Forces (IRGC) provided substantial backing to Hezbollah’s resistance against Israel. In response, Israel intensified cyber warfare against the Iranian nuclear programme. By early 2010s, amid the Arab Spring upheaval, Iran consolidated its ‘Axis of Resistance’ to strangulate Israel. The threat from the Ayatollah regime is real and undeniable, and the October 7 attacks have reinforced the same. The IAEA reports from 2022 have consistently reported a steady increase in the Iranian stockpile of enriched Uranium. The latest IAEA report of May 2025 notes an expanded production of 60% enriched Uranium of 408 kg below the weapons-grade. This quantity places Iran perilously close to the nuclear threshold, raising international concerns should the trend continue unchecked. On June 12, 2025, the IAEA board found Iran non-compliant with nuclear obligations for the first time in 20 years3, and the board voted to censure Iran. In response, Iran announced it would activate a third nuclear enrichment facility4. Hours later, Israel launched strikes on Iran. Considering Israel’s record of taking down Iraq’s Osirak in 1981 and Syria’s putative nuclear facility in the Deir ez-Zor region in 2007, the air strikes on Iran aren’t unprecedented but just a continuation of a pattern. (Contd..) Part 2: https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/double-standards-or-realpolitik-us-playbook-on-nuclear-brinkmanship-part-2