The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology along with the Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) is actively working on creating India's first Earth System Model, aiming to enhance climate forecasts and predict climate impacts more effectively, Union Minister of Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju said.

“An amount of ₹192.28 crores has been sanctioned under the Monsoon Convection, Clouds and Climate Change (MC4) sub-scheme to develop the climate forecasting system,” Rijiju said.

The Earth System Model (ESM) is an open-source software designed to incorporate the interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, and biosphere. Its purpose is to estimate the state of regional and global climates under diverse conditions. Leveraging numerical weather prediction and data assimilation, the ESM proves valuable for precise climate change predictions, as highlighted by officials from the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Anticipated to be finalized by 2025, this model aims to offer dependable future projections for both global and regional climates, encompassing crucial aspects such as Indian monsoon rainfall. The initiative is in line with the government's commitment to addressing climate change issues.

According to a senior official from the ministry, the upcoming "state-of-the-art climate model" will serve not only for long-term climate studies but will also produce dependable future projections for both global and regional climates, with a specific focus on Indian monsoon rainfall. The ongoing efforts to develop this model are underway, and the completion is anticipated by 2025, as mentioned by the official.

“IITM-ESM incorporates earth system components in the Climate Forecast System (CFS) from National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, USA), and transforms the CFS seasonal prediction model to a long-term climate mode,” the official added, asking not to be named.

The official emphasized that in recent years, the government has prioritized the enhancement of climate modelling capabilities in the country. This initiative is aimed at effectively addressing scientific aspects related to climate change.

“We have also generated an ensemble of high resolution dynamically downscaled future projections of regional climate over South Asia and Indian monsoon, which will be useful for impact assessment studies and quantifying uncertainties in the regional projections,” he said.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports do provide a global perspective on climate change, but the focus on regional climate change aspects is considerably limited, officials said.

“The effects of climate change over the Indian subcontinent involve complex physical processes on different space and time scales, especially given that the mean climate of this region is generally shaped by the Indian monsoon and the unique high-elevation geographical features such as the Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the Tibetan Plateau and the adjoining Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal. We also aim to present policy-relevant information based on robust scientific analysis and assessments of the observed and projected future climate change over the Indian region,” a Ministry of Earth Sciences report read.

Image source: The Statesman