China on last Thursday asked India to withdraw its troops from the Donglong area in Sikkim sector as a precondition for a "meaningful dialogue" to settle the boundary issue and also issued a warning that the Indian Army should learn "historical lessons", in an oblique reference to the 1962 war.

Thereafter, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman displayed a photograph of what he alleged was Indian "incursion" into Donglong area and said the dispute which is becoming a confrontation of sorts between the troops on the ground can only be settled by the withdrawal of Indian soldiers from the area.

There have been reportedly more than 150 intrusions by the Chinese in 2015 and in 2013 the Chinese intruded some 20 kms inside in Ladakh region. Border transgressions and face-offs between Indian and Chinese troops occur almost on a daily basis at different stretches along the 4,057-km Line of Actual Control, with eastern Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh in particular being major flashpoints. Incidentally, the area which is in news these days, Chinese troops had also destroyed a few makeshift bunkers of the Indian Army in the Doka La region in November 2007. Over the last couple of years, the Indian Army has built many new bunkers and upgraded older ones along the border in Sikkim to augment its defenses against the PLA, which has stepped up its activities near the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction.

The reasons for such incursions are in public domain and these incursions have been continuing for many years, now, so, one can easily conclude that these intrusions have nothing to do with who is ruling India.

Therefore, what we need to focus on is the larger issue i.e.

One: What has caused this face off, if there is any reason that can be attributed to?

Two: How long do we have to face all this? And is there any solution? 

Let’s take the Latter first i.e. How long will it go on like this?

Like any other persistent problem that India faces today, this one also has been inherited, to a great extent; a gift of Nehru. And to expect any solution to this complex problem in foreseeable future would be unreasonable. Because, Border issues are Emotional issues and have political ramifications and therefore to resolve them there has to be some Give and Take, by both the parties, and that’s where the problem lies. No Political Head of a state would have the courage to do this: GIVE AND TAKE and so the problem carries on and passed on to the next generation.

Pick up any strategic journal of mid 90s and you would find almost every security expert on China saying that China is probably buying time and as its economic reforms bear fruit it will once again rake up the Border disputes and would be more assertive, then.

During that period of 90s, when these security experts were sending warning signals, China talked of confidence building measures with all those nations with whom it had a border dispute, because it wanted to focus all its energy on economic reforms. With hind sight, now, we can with certainty say, that Yes, those experts were correct in their assessment.

During this period China systematically focused its energy on 3 M’s; Money, Manpower i.e. Human resource and Military. As a result, Today, one finds China having deep pockets , its GDP is 4 times the India’s, it has emerged as the manufacturing hub and a worldwide infra structure developer and also possesses the largest army which is well equipped with indigenously manufactured weapon systems.

When all this was happening we Indians as usual were watching with Indifference.

Today courtesy its deep pockets China has attained influence, to far off lands, as far as, Latin American countries (LAC). China and many Latin American Countries share a strong affinity for traditional notions of independence and sovereign equality of states, which often makes effective cooperation on matters of international peace and security more difficult. On core security matters like wars of aggression and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, both sides strongly defend the U.N. Charter’s demands for Security Council approval of use of armed force to resolve international conflicts.

The above shows its double standards; at some places China advocates cooperation, peace and non-use of armed forces to resolve conflicts and in South China Sea and against India it does not hesitate to display its military power.

China’s assistance has enabled some of these Latin American states to carry on with their failing models longer than they should have. Even in countries like Brazil and Argentina, China’s expansion in the region has reinforced these states’ quest for greater strategic autonomy, often at Washington’s expense.

China is probably using the same strategy here in South Asia as was used by USA in 60s, in Latin America, during Cold war era against erstwhile USSR. US considered Latin America as its back yard. The U.S. sought to secure its "backyard and strongly believed that; it is better to have a strong regime in power than a liberal one if it is indulgent and relaxed and penetrated by Communists." Or as Dwight Eisenhower's Secretary of State John Foster Dulles stated: "Do nothing to offend the dictators…they are the only people we can depend on.

So, China, that is emerging as a Superpower is also probably safe guarding its back yard in South Asia, with whatever means possible. It would, therefore, rather be fearing India because of India’s size, its International status and most importantly- its liberal and democratic society.

So, viewing from that perspective, China is likely to remain not just a competitor for us but a Rival state, in this region.

It is here, that I squarely blame Manmohan Singh for having wasted 10 long years. We could have grown militarily and economically and today would have been comparatively in a stronger position. Our only strategist- Chanakya had also reflected similar sentiments, some thousands of years back, He had said; from the strength of the treasury, the Army is born. When one knows that one is living in a Dangerous neighborhood, then, every year Counts. Each year earnings add on to your Power Both Military and Economic or each year of inaction would lead to a power gap.

However, instead of complaining about our inaction in Past we need to look up for positives and various other aspects that can help us dealing with yet another difficult neighbor ; China and evaluate How long do we have to face this?

One, India after the humiliating defeat in 1962 has withstood China’s arm twisting successfully on two occasions. That should give us confidence and also deter China to attempt any misadventure. The two incidents where China has burnt its fingers are; The Nathu La, Cho La clashes and Sumdorung Chu standoff.

Nathu La/Cho La incidents were a series of military clashes between India and China that took place in 1967, alongside the border of Sikkim. The clashes started on 11 September 1967, when People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched an attack on Indian posts at Nathu La, which lasted till 15 September 1967. In October 1967, another military duel took place at Cho La .

The conflict resulted in the defeat of Chinese military in the hands of Indian forces.^. Many PLA fortifications at Nathu La were said to be destroyed and they had to suffer heavy casualties.

Although politically we once again, displayed lack of firmness and Gen Sagat Singh who rightly called the Chinese bluff and stood his ground, was eased out to a less important assignment. However, from military point of view the Indian army gave Chinese a Bloody nose.

Thereafter, the standoff at Sumdorong Chu in 1987 in Arunachal Pradesh, when Indians once again, withstood Chinese military threat firmly and did not succumb to their arm twisting and rather declared Arunachal Pradesh as India’s state at the peak of tension. 

In June 1986, an Indian patrol found some 40 Chinese working on permanent structures in Sumdorong Chu valley. Sumdorong Chu (the Indian post was known as the Wangdung IB under the Zimithang circle of Tawang district), Soon some 200 men reinforcements arrived on the spot. By August after the Chinese had constructed a helipad, the Indian Army took a more aggressive stand along the entire front in the NEFA.

In September, in order to diffuse the tension Delhi suggested that, if the Chinese accepted to withdraw their forces during the coming winter, India would not re-occupy the area following summer. The proposal was flatly refused by Chinese Govt.

In October, Deng Xiaoping warned India that China would have to ‘teach India a lesson’. This was conveyed by the US Defense Secretary. In the meantime, in December 1986, Arunachal Pradesh became a full-fledged State of the Indian Union. This angered China further. India continued her built-up during the first months of 1987.  Amid rising diplomatic tempers, Army chief General K Sundarji airlifted an entire infantry brigade under Operation Falcon to Zimithang, a makeshift landing area close to Sumdorong Chu, to counter Chinese moves. This surprised the Chinese. 

Unlike in 1967, where Indians showed little political will, this time India had taken a strong stand and shown the Chinese that they could no more bluff their way through into Indian Territory. The strong stand then taken by the Indian Army and the Political establishment allowed the visit of Rajiv Gandhi, the then PM of India to Beijing to be rather successful a year later. The Indian Prime Minister could discuss from a respectable position with Deng Xiaoping and his colleagues.

So, the above two incidents evidently prove that Indian armed forces can also not only inflict heavy casualties but also thwart Chinese nefarious designs.

Mountain warfare is manpower intensive and can cause huge attrition. A Defender enjoys a great tactical advantage in mountains. The reliance on numerical strength by the attacker is no guarantee of success in mountains. It’s the attacker who is exposed and the defender can inflict heavy casualties on the attacker, from its tactically dominating ground, provided, the defender uses the ground well.

Secondly, the Indian army with an exception of US army is the only army, today, which is battle hardened. It has for last 30 years been fighting militancy/ terrorism. Almost the whole lot of infantry soldiers have faced fire and been baptized and are well trained in active operations and not on SAND MODELS and Firing ranges. The recent eg is the Kargil war where Pak regulars despite occupying tactically advantageous positions on mountain tops lost to Indian army. So, in case China does try any adventure in mountains its army is surely going to suffer very heavy casualties.

Therefore, instead of teaching India a lesson, China may learn a lesson or two and end up with egg on its face and its IMAGE OF A SUPER POWER may be dented for ever. This is going to be very embarrassing for China which is aspiring to challenge USA, as a Super power. And so it is unlikely that China would like to test waters at this stage, that too with India.

However, at the same time we should not discount the following also;

Since 1980s and 90s, the Chinese economy took off and rapidly marched ahead of India. Consequently, by 2016 the Chinese economy was over four times the size of the Indian economy. India’s nominal gross domestic product, in terms of US Dollars, was USD 2.5 trillion in 2016, while China’s was USD 11.2 trillion. This gap is expected to persist, may be over the short to medium term.

Therefore, for at least next five years, India has to live with the reality of this wide gap.  Ostensibly, the major consequence of this income gap is the power gap, because, with China having the deep pockets, it can sustain larger defense expenditure.

The suggestion often mooted by some as an emotional outburst that WE SHOULD BAN CHINESE PRODUCTS to bring China to its knees, is childish, because;

China is the largest trading partner for 130 countries implying that its growth has been sustained not because of India but because it has emerged as a major global trading power.  Its total foreign trade in 2015 was colossal ; estimated to be USD 4 trillion, compared to India’s USD 0.5 trillion.

Besides this, what has contributed towards making China a geo-economic power is the fact that it has emerged as a major importing power, especially with respect to its Asian neighbors and Africa. For eg, the metal prices in some countries depend on the domestic demand of China.

All this led to current account surpluses that enables China to deploy these dollar reserves to achieve its geopolitical objectives. Reportedly, China’s overseas development assistance (ODA) budget now exceeds that of the World Bank.

China has thus evolved from being a Trading Power to also an Investing Power and the launch of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) project is a manifestation of this new phase in China’s geoeconomic power.

China has also emerged as a major shareholder in number of International organizations; and has increased its vote share in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Chinese RMB is now one of the reserve currencies of the IMF, along with the US Dollar, the Euro and the Japanese Yen.

Thus, one cannot refute the enormous clout that China enjoys, in the global financial system which enhances China’s geoeconomic power. And this allows China to deploy its ‘trading power’, Financial Power – especially its ‘importing power’ to be used as a leverage to punish countries. Thus, after Mongolia hosted a visit by the Dalai Lama, China threatened punitive economic action, including blocking IMF aid to Mongolia, and so secured an apology and an assurance from Mongolia that it would not host another visit by the Dalai Lama.

China has threatened or taken such economic action against several countries establishing its geoeconomic clout.

Now that it has become a major geoeconomic power it is now through its OBOR initiatives, and its Naval bases popularly called as String of pearls  in the Indian Ocean region, that extend from the Chinese mainland to Port Sudan, providing China a network of military and commercial facilities along its sea lines of communication is trying to emerge as a geopolitical power.

Hence, India has to take cognizance of all these facts  ; that China is today the largest trade partner, a source of investment and even defense supplies to several South Asian neighbors ; Nepal, Sri lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar etc. - investing in port, power and other infrastructure projects that enable China to extend its power projection into the Indian Ocean region.

Although China’s economic growth rate has slowed since 2012. and authorities in China have attempted to rebalance the economy by shifting the earlier emphasis on Investment led growth to consumption led growth. However, this has not been an easy task.

But, we must also accept that China, being a Communist country not being burdened by the nuances of Democracy, has the capacity – both economic and political – to deal with the challenges posed by these factors, And China will come out of this and retain its geoeconomic and geopolitical clout.

Therefore, From India’s view point the current imbalance in the relative geo economic power will remain in foreseeable future. However, this economic gap is fast converting into an overall national power gap.

It will take more than a decade for India to be able to bridge the economic gap with China. So, any attempt to take on China, head on, which is many times economically and militarily superior is going to be a daunting task.

And so this problem of incursions is going to remain for some foreseeable future.

More so, many a times’ Chinese internal contest of ONE UP MANSHIP also causes these problems on the Border. The military organization of China is unique, in the sense, every combat unit and Formation has a Political Leader from COMMUNIST PARTY called COMMISSAR posted along with the Military Commander. Ostensibly, this leads to the problem of one up man ship between the Political Head i.e. the COMMISSAR and the Military Commander. And that also often leads to such high handed approach on the border. Imagine, In India we have a BJP or Cong Political leader posted in every unit along with the CO/ Commander. It will create a messy situation.

So, while, in case of smaller countries China uses its “importing power’ and “Money power” as a leverage to punish countries, it uses Border incursions as a leverage to punish or threaten India because it understands the nuances of Indian democracy. These incursions are politicized by our own Politicians and are used to brow beat the Government and to illustrate its ineffectiveness. The government is put under pressure and compelled to undertake measures to control the damage as if the incursion was done by India. This happened in 1967, 87, during MMS times and even now. 

Moreover, our adversaries, in possession of a nuclear weapon are now increasingly using this threat of escalation of hostilities, as if it is only India that is going to be adversely impacted by the escalation.

In view of the economic and military superiority that China enjoys, India’s policy has always been; not to ruffle Beijing’s feathers and keep a window open for engagement with China whenever a contentious issue comes up.

Secondly, the manner in which we have been dealing with terrorism gives a feeling to any external observer that India is a meek state. So, it is not surprising that China views us as a weak nation which can be pushed and prodded to submission. 

However, at the same time, this advantage of deep pockets and of huge military superiority in terms of resources that China has against India can come into play in China’s favor only when there is a full-fledged conventional war along the entire front and not in a localized conflict or a border clash on a narrow front.

However, in view of the current geo political environment, it is unlikely that on such a petty issue China would open up the entire frontage of some 4000 kms to exploit its numerical and resource superiority and appear in the world as a Bully.

So, that implies, if at all China decides to escalate the current conflict, it will have to do something extra and India to keep it localized. The Indian army, therefore, must not commit the same blunder of exposing the troops, as they did in 1967 when they directed the troops to lay wire obstacle in day light allowing Chinese troops to open fire that led to the situation spiraling out of control.

So, if, we act resolutely, and keep the conflict localized, the intrusions in Indian Territory can be minimized and if we do not act resolutely many intrusions are likely to follow. 

Now let’s discuss the Second issue, i.e. what may have caused this face off.

One is, India’s objection to China’s dream project ONE BELT ONE ROAD which, India views as an Initiative done purely in pursuit of its geo political objectives. The manner in which China is pursuing its ONE BELT ONE ROAD project through Gilgit- Baltistan and POK, which are disputed territories, it can only be termed as arrogance and nothing else.

 

Noted strategist Mr. Brahma Chellany writes “If there is one thing at which China’s leaders truly excel, it is the use of economic tools to advance their country’s geostrategic interests. Through its $1 trillion “one belt, one road” initiative, China is supporting infrastructure projects in strategically located developing countries, often by extending huge loans to their governments. As a result, countries are becoming ensnared in a debt trap that leaves them vulnerable to China’s influence.

Several of the projects that have been completed are now bleeding money. For example, Sri Lanka’s Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport, which opened in 2013 near Hambantota, has been dubbed the world’s emptiest airport. Likewise, Hambantota’s Magampura Mahinda Rajapaksa Port remains largely idle, as does the multibillion dollar Gwadar port in Pakistan.

For China, however, these projects are operating exactly as needed: Chinese attack submarines have twice docked at Sri Lankan ports, and two Chinese warships were recently pressed into service for Gwadar port security “.

So, when India objected to this initiative and did not attend the summit held in Pakistan, China realized that the geopolitical challenge for Pakistan to comply with the Chinese request for giving constitutional recognition to the illegally held Gilgit -Baltistan region without inviting opposition from Kashmiri separatist leaders on both the sides of divide is going to be stiff. China had made it very clear and vocal that it is essential for Pakistan to provide legal cover to the Chinese investment on CPEC running through Gilgit-Baltistan where undercurrent of discontent against Pakistani occupation continues to simmer.

So with billions of dollars invested and India not part of this, China knows it well that this CPEC can never be successful.

Besides this The recent Joint statements of Trump and Modi which indirectly hinted on China’s conduct, indicates unmistakable convergence of views on China.

In addition to that some are ascribing the Joint naval exercise of USA-JAPAN and India in the Indian Ocean as one of the reasons which has disturbed China.

May be, All this could have compelled China to show off its strength and deter India from trying to rope in US to check mate China in its own backyard.

Notwithstanding the above, I think the way Chinese have been pushing and coercing the smaller neighbors and using money as a leverage to bring them into submission is now well known. Moreover, the recent incident of intrusion and causing threat to Bhutan’s security would further make many neighbors apprehensive including Pakistan which is day by day getting into the Chinese debt trap. This has already raised many eye brows in Pakistan. And they fear that Pakistan may become a colonial Border out Post of China.

So, China although provides them money and defense equipment but there is a fear of getting trapped in debt and getting bullied

On the other hand, is democratic India which is powerful both economically and militarily, which respects the sovereignty of its neighbors and culturally also closer to them than the Chinese are. So, some of these smaller neighbors might be looking up to India, a lesser devil to save them from the Monster. As Srilanka, this time denied China to dock its Naval Ships.

Therefore, it is imperative that India, in order to retain its supremacy in the South Asian region it must be able to withstand Chinese arm twisting using a combination of diplomatic skills and military firmness. And if it is able to do that, I think China sooner or later would end up facing an embarrassing situation. And this whole OBOR initiative may fall flat.

However, if India does not take a firm stand and concedes to Chinese demands and agrees to participate in OBOR initiative, there is no guarantee that China would amend its behavior and would not rake up some such issue and not resort to arm twisting in future.

I think, China for the first time, is finding itself in a tight spot, probably this irritation has compelled China to do all this, hoping, that this may work out.

China now will have to turn to prophetic advises of Suntzu, may be, he can help them.

As regards India, it must use a combination of both Military steadfastness and diplomatic skills to keep the discord localized and diffuse the situation.