Gulf states are actively lobbying Washington to prevent Israel from launching attacks on Iran's oil facilities, citing concerns that such actions could provoke retaliation from Tehran's proxies and put their own oil installations at risk. Sources close to government circles in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have revealed that these countries are also denying Israel permission to use their airspace for any potential strikes on Iran. This stance has been clearly communicated to U.S. officials as part of their efforts to avoid being drawn into escalating conflict.

Israel has vowed that Iran will face consequences for its missile attack last week, while Tehran has warned that any retaliation would result in significant destruction. This escalating rhetoric has heightened fears of a broader conflict in the region, potentially involving the United States.

In response, Gulf states have initiated a diplomatic push, seeking to leverage their influence with Washington amidst growing apprehensions that Israel may target Iran's oil production facilities. This effort comes as non-Arab Shi'ite Iran has reached out to its Sunni Gulf neighbours to encourage a united front in addressing these tensions.

In meetings this week, Iran cautioned Saudi Arabia that it cannot ensure the safety of the Gulf kingdom's oil facilities if Israel received any support for a potential attack. This warning was conveyed by a senior Iranian official and an Iranian diplomat to Reuters, underscoring the escalating tensions and the precarious security situation in the region.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, said: "The Iranians have stated: 'If the Gulf states open up their airspace to Israel, that would be an act of war'."

The diplomat said Tehran had sent a clear message to Riyadh that its allies in countries such as Iraq or Yemen might respond if there was any regional support for Israel against Iran.

A potential Israeli strike was the focus of talks on Wednesday between Saudi de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was on a Gulf tour to rally support, Gulf and Iranian sources said.

The White House declined to comment on whether Gulf governments had requested that Washington ensure Israel's response remains measured. However, U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the Israeli retaliation in a call on Wednesday, which both sides characterised as positive.

Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer on the Middle East and now at the Atlantic Council think-tank in Washington said, "Gulf states' anxiety is likely to be a key talking point with Israeli counterparts in trying to convince Israel to undertake a carefully calibrated response."

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effectively led by Saudi Arabia, possesses sufficient spare oil capacity to compensate for any potential loss of Iranian supply resulting from Israeli retaliation. However, much of this spare capacity is located in the Gulf region, meaning that if oil facilities in Saudi Arabia or the UAE were also targeted, the world could face significant oil supply challenges. Saudi Arabia has been particularly cautious since a 2019 attack on its Aramco oilfield, which disrupted over 5% of global oil supply, an incident Iran denied involvement in. While Riyadh has sought to improve relations with Tehran in recent years, trust continues to be a significant concern. Additionally, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE all host U.S. military facilities or troops, further complicating the regional dynamics.

Concerns regarding oil facilities and the risk of a broader regional conflict were also key topics in discussions between Emirati officials and their U.S. counterparts, according to another Gulf source. In 2022, the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen launched missiles and drones at oil refuelling trucks near an ADNOC refinery in the UAE, claiming responsibility for the attack.

"The Gulf states aren't letting Israel use their airspace. They won't allow Israeli missiles to pass through, and there's also a hope that they won't strike the oil facilities," the Gulf source said.

The three Gulf sources highlighted that while Israel could conduct strikes through Jordan or Iraq, using Saudi, UAE, or Qatari airspace is not an option and is deemed strategically unnecessary. Analysts noted that Israel has alternative strategies available, including mid-air refuelling capabilities, which would allow its jets to travel down the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean, proceed to the Gulf, and then return.

According to two senior Israeli officials, Israel plans to calibrate its response and, as of Wednesday, had not yet made a decision regarding a potential strike on Iran's oilfields. This option was among several presented by the defense establishment to Israeli leaders.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated on Wednesday, "Our strike will be lethal, precise, and above all—surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the results." Meanwhile, the three Gulf sources indicated that Saudi Arabia, along with its oil-producing neighbours—UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain—has a strong interest in de-escalating the situation.

"We will be in the middle of a missile war. There is serious concern, especially if the Israeli strike targets Iran's oil installations," a second Gulf source said.

The three Gulf sources noted that an Israeli strike on Iran's oil infrastructure would have significant global repercussions, particularly for China, which is Iran's largest oil customer. Additionally, they highlighted potential political implications for U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 presidential election, where she is facing off against Donald Trump.

"If oil prices surge to $120 per barrel, it would harm both the U.S. economy and Harris' chances in the election. So they (Americans) won't allow the oil war to expand," the first Gulf source said.

Gulf sources emphasised that protecting all oil installations remains a challenge, even with advanced missile defence systems like the Patriot system in place. Consequently, the primary strategy focuses on diplomatic efforts to signal to Iran that Gulf states do not pose a threat. Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near East Studies at Princeton University, pointed out that Riyadh is particularly vulnerable, as "the Iranians can swarm those installations given the short distance from the mainland."