It’s been just over a week since Hardik Patel, a hitherto unknown name in Indian politics, culminated his slew of rallies with a big rally in Ahmedabad.  These rallies were carried out by the ‘Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti’ (PAAS) to demand that Patidars or Patels be included in the ‘OBC’ category for reservations. Many reasons were listed by the representatives about why they should get these reservations and so forth. After the big rally, violence erupted in some cities across Gujarat as crowds started vandalizing public property and torching police stations. The police then took people into custody and put an end to the violence the very next day but tragically some people had lost their lives by then.

​This led to a lot of debates and discussions in the national media and one could sense a feeling of vicarious pleasure amongst various commentators who started making wild conclusions about whether the ‘Gujarat Model’ was on fire. From projecting Hardik Patel as some sort of a crusader in Gujarat politics to supporting his preposterous claims we saw everything happening. An unholy alliance between the left liberal commentariat and politicians, looking to blame Narendra Modi for every issue under the sun, manifested itself and graduated to the next level when Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav started supporting this cause. Many commentators gave their silent blessing by not talking about the real issues.

​For those not familiar with the political history of Gujarat, the state has seen many agitations before. The 70’s and the 80’s especially saw a spate of those beginning with the Nav Nirman movement and many more. One of the most significant ones amongst these was the 1985 anti-reservation stir led by the same Patidar/Patel community opposing the very same reservation that they are now demanding. The Madhavsinh Solanki led Congress government at that time had won 149 seats on a KHAM (Kshatriya Harijan Adivasi Muslim) alliance and embarked on dividing the state on caste lines in the worst way possible. 

Promoting certain castes and ignoring various grievances became the hallmark of that government as governance took a backseat. While many commentators keep on emphasizing the 149 number and the KHAM alliance, that wasn’t the only reason for the mandate. One has to understand that the Congress party post 1984 LS elections was on an unprecedented high having won 400+ Lok Sabha seats and by winning 24 out of 26 LS seats in Gujarat. This had a cascading effect in the state elections in 1985 too, which the Congress swept as well. 

What is rarely mentioned is that in the very next elections Congress took a hammering and went down to 33 seats because of these divisive polices and misgovernance. This saw many communities including Patels supporting the BJP-JD alliance in a big way. This support solidified with the rise of Keshubhai Patel as the CM, and many Patels have been with the BJP since. But to see this as a caste based support would be erroneous. 

Patels themselves are divided into various communities, of which the Kadva and Leuva Patels form a majority. There is no pattern or statistic to suggest that both of them have voted along similar lines and with similar factors in play. The reason I’m bringing this up is when they analyze the recent agitation, the tendency amongst commentators is to pronounce a verdict that the ‘Patels’ are against the ‘Gujarat Model’ or that the entire community is supporting the agitation and so forth.  Nothing could be further from the truth than this. 

The Patels are spread across different parts of Gujarat, and vote based on their local issues and grievances. The 2014 Lok Sabha was an anomaly because Gujarat was voting for one of their own as the Prime Minister of the country and hence one saw homogeneity across voting classes. This consolidation has otherwise not been seen. It could be, and in some elections that was the case, that Patels have massively voted for the BJP but many factors were at play during those elections. This brings us to the current agitation, and why the massive crowds in the rallies. The reservation issue is a very emotive issue and resonates across classes around the country and Gujarat is no different. The agitation that we saw across parts of Gujarat was because people felt that in spite of getting adequate marks, they were losing out on admissions to colleges because people with lower marks would get in only on the basis of reservations. 

This has been a grouse that many people have nurtured since Mandal, and this has only increased with the number of students applying for seats. Is that a failure of the ‘Gujarat Model’? The students who aren’t getting seats are probably as annoyed as the students who don’t get into any other prestigious Colleges because there are reservations there too. If there is a failure of any model then it is a failure of the V P Singh model and the Arjun Singh model, who through their cynical politics, have kept people who are on the lower end of the economic strata out because of their caste. If India were to keep reservations, then it should only be based on economic status and nothing else. But, to expect Narendra Modi to resolve a 60 year old debate in days is frankly hilarious.

​While some people in the rallies may have a legitimate grouse against the system, nothing justifies Hardik Patel’s aggression. From making threats in his speech, to encouraging vandalism and bringing some cities to a virtual halt just to advance his political career is abominable. When he was being interviewed, the same pattern that fawning interviewers use when they interview Lalu Prasad Yadav (rarely questioning him on his conviction) was seen here. Many important questions weren’t asked, only because he was seemingly against the BJP in Gujarat. The same arrogance that many folks exhibited before the 2014 elections when they proclaimed that Mr. Modi could never lead India was on display after the rally as people started bashing ‘Gujarat Model’ without putting any thought into it. The fact is, that politically this will not impact the BJP in the state. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that people who came out in the rally voted BJP last time, or won’t vote for the BJP in 2017. People following Gujarat politics will know that the state elections aren’t so straight forward that if Hardik Patel points one way, like a herd everyone will follow the suit.

​There are roughly 80-90 lakh Patels all over Gujarat living in different parts. Saurashtra, South, North and Central Gujarat has sizeable populations of Patels, all of whom vote on different issues in different elections. The only political thought that could’ve fueled this rally would be to potentially ‘split’ part of the BJP vote in cities that go to polls in the upcoming municipal elections. After the events that transpired that night, that seems to have backfired big time. What this has done instead, is solidified many other communities behind the BJP and split the ‘Patidar’ community itself. This agitation has certainly not died, and the implications of it may be felt, but electorally it will not yield fruit. As far as the government is concerned, Anandiben Patel led the state admirably and responded quite well. Now it is up to her to allay the fears and ensure investors and citizens that violence on this scale will not happen again. As for the Congress, JDU and their friendly media’s reaction, it was along predictable lines. Rather than debating the merits and demerits of reservation, they started debating Gujarat’s politics. The debates that happened only showed one thing, the lack of understanding of how Gujarat and the Gujarati psyche works amongst the commentators. As I write this, there are more op-eds coming which smack of the same ignorance and arrogance that I’ve seen towards the state since I’ve been following its politics. If you’re still wondering why the Congress gets thrashed resoundingly in Gujarat year after year the answer lies in the statement above. They have outsourced their politics to activists, professors, officers and journalists. In spite of being thoroughly rejected, they haven’t given up. No one knows yet as to who is behind Hardik Patel, and many cock and bull stories are floating around. The only conclusion that can be drawn yet is that Hardik Patel does not seem to know what he is talking about, and that is stock is tanking rapidly, or maybe has tanked already.