In 2020, Germany's foreign intelligence service estimated there was an 80 to 90 per cent chance that the coronavirus causing the COVID-19 pandemic was accidentally released from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology, according to reports from two German newspapers on Wednesday (March 12).

A joint report by Die Zeit and Sueddeutscher Zeitung revealed that Germany's intelligence agency, BND, had information suggesting that the institute carried out gain-of-function experiments. These experiments involve altering viruses to make them more easily transmissible to humans for research purposes. The report also indicated that there were several breaches of safety protocols at the lab. The spy agency's assessment was based on an unidentified intelligence operation called "Saaremaa" and publicly available information. The report mentioned that this assessment was ordered by the office of Germany's former chancellor, Angela Merkel, but was never made public.

The BND refused to comment on the matter. When questioned about the report during a press conference, outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz also declined to provide a statement on Wednesday. Reports indicate that the assessment was shared with the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in the autumn of 2024. In January, a CIA spokesperson stated that the agency believes the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely to have originated from a laboratory than from natural sources. 

The CIA previously stated it had "low confidence" in its findings, noting that both theories — the virus originating from a lab or occurring naturally — are possible. Meanwhile, China's government claims it has supported and participated in research to trace COVID-19's origin, accusing the US of politicising the issue, particularly through intelligence agency investigations. Beijing has dismissed claims that a lab leak was the likely cause of the pandemic, calling them baseless.