The Congress Part’s manifesto — the Nyay Patra —is full of subsidies, doles, and freebies, aimed at keeping people poor and feeding them with imaginary funds. If that wasn’t enough, blind minority appeasement pushed it to directly call for a ‘fight against majoritarianism.’ It was immediately called for its striking similarity with the Muslim League charter of 1936 and fiscal irrationality.

A week later BJP also unveiled its manifesto — the Sankalp Patra, a complete blueprint of a holistic and sustained growth of a country like Bharat. From the Uniform Civil Code to ‘One Nation one Election,’ continued focus on infrastructure, the Olympics in 2036, a manned mission to the moon and a permanent seat in UNSC. It has all the right ingredients, creating a propelling force for taking India through the upward curve of becoming a developed nation — Viksit Bharat. The ‘Ayushman Yojana’ or free medical insurance for all Indians above 70 years will not only cheer the senior citizens, but every caring child would also appreciate it.

Commenting on it while campaigning in Kerala, Congress candidate from Wayanad, Rahul Gandhi once again found lying through his teeth. He said, “Today, the main fight is against the ideology of the RSS. The BJP people, the Prime Minister, they say one nation, one people, one language, one leader…Language is not something that is imposed from the top. Language is something that comes out from inside the person, inside the heart of the person. To tell a person from Kerala, that your language is inferior to Hindi is an insult to the people of Kerala…This idea that India should have only one leader is an insult to every single young Indian person.”

Clueless of any vision for India or his party, that’s what he does every time — Lies and falsehood, then lies and falsehood, and then some more lies and some more falsehood.

Surprisingly embarrassed, one of the chief Modi-baiter and congress sympathiser, who also happened to be the former chairperson and editor of The Hindu, wrote, “Time for Congress Party to get real if it wants to fight BJP on the ground. It’s loud & clear from the BJP’s poll manifesto, and the speeches of its lead campaigners particularly PM Narendra Modi, that their pitch hinges on their guarantees to various social constituencies-youth, senior citizens, farmers, and the labour force. The expected aggressive emphasis on Hindutva is just not there. Yes, there’s mention of the Ram temple & the UCC but the triumphalist tone of “Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan” is thankfully abandoned. For Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, to continually harp on “manuvadi” and the RSS agenda is showing them up as outdated, and removed from the ground reality as it is today.”

With all the information at their fingertip, the aspirational Indian electorate now is too smart, to ignore such a contrasting appeal. With that context, we proceed to look at what’s in store for the following 97 seats covering 13 states and UTs.

20. JAMMU & KASHMIR [ 6 Seats]

There are three interesting points to be noticed in the Kashmir valley. First, no INDI alliance. The Congress manifesto says they will restore statehood to J&K, while their partners in Kashmir — both JKNC and PDP are talking about restoring 370. And they clearly do not wish to clarify their stand to the people of J&K. Second, even the ‘GUPKAR Alliance” has vanished from the valley. Third, no one is talking about boycotting the elections anymore.

The Abdullah family announces that JKNC will contest all three seats in Kashmir Valley. Following that Mehbooba Mufti also announced that PDP will contest all three seats of the valley making all three seats to be a three-cornered fight.

PDP announces Mehbooba Mufti as a candidate for Anantnag-Rajouri seat. Wahid Para will contest Srinagar and Fayaz Mir to contest Baramulla. JKNC has declared Syed Mehdi from Srinagar, Omar Abdullah from Baramullah and a strong candidate — Miyan Altaf from Anantnag-Rajouri.

This makes Anantnag-Rajauri an interesting high-profile profile four-cornered fight since Ghulam Nabi Azad too has announced his candidature. Zafar Iqbal of the Apni Party is also contesting from this seat. As a result, the BJP is also strongly in the fray on this seat.

PDP and NC will support congress candidates in Jammu and Udhampur. In Valley, congress won’t field any candidates leaving it to NC and PDP to fight it out. Now all eyes are on BJP who should be announcing their 3 candidates for the Valley and from Ladakh soon.

[BJP — 3, NC — 2–3, PDP — 0–1]

21. MANIPUR [2 Seats]

In Manipur, the BJP is contesting on one seat in Inner Manipur, while the outer Manipur is to be contested by its ally Naga People’s Front (NPF). Congress is contesting both the seats in alliance with CPI.

On the Outer Manipur seat, NPF has fielded Kachui Timothy Zimik as the candidate denying the ticket to sitting MP Lorho S Pfoze. In 2019, NPF won this seat against BJP. Both parties together garnered 76% vote share. This seat NPF should win without a real contest.

In Inner Manipur, which has been a traditional Congress seat, the BJP won in 2019 by a 2% margin in a triangular contest between Congress, BJP, and CPI. This time Communists supporting Congress should cross the magic number.

[NPF — 1, INC — 1]

22. MEGHALAYA [2 Seats]

In Meghalaya, where BJP is not contesting, its NDA partner NPP is contesting both the seats directly against the Congress Party. While NPP should easily retain its Sura seat, INC will also sail through Shillong, despite a good fight by NPP, BJP combined.

[INC — 1, NPP — 1]

23. MIZORAM [1 Seat]

The fight for the singular parliamentary constituency has become interesting with the emergence of the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) which is an alliance of six regional parties formed under the leadership of former IPS Officer Lalduhoma. In the 2023 Assembly polls, the Party won 27 out of 40 seats.

It is in direct contest against Mizo National Front (MNF) which displaced its arch-rival Congress in 2019. Both Congress and BJP have fielded their candidates but are not in the fray.

[ZPM — 1]

24. NAGALAND [1 Seat]

In Nagaland, the National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) is contesting from NDA. The BJP under Himanta Biswa has formed a formidable alliance in the Northeastern states that has almost ousted Congress from the region.

NDPP should easily retain this seat.

[NDPP — 1]

25. ORISSA [ 21 seats]

The political space in Odisha is churning like never before. Sensing the upsurge of BJP in the state, and the lethargy in 77-year-old Naveen Babu’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), there has been an exodus of top leaders from BJD to BJP.

BJD suffered a major jolt ahead of polls, when six-time Lok Sabha member and Cuttack MP Bhartruhari Mahtab, Odia cine star and two-time Biju Janata Dal MP from Berhampur Sidhant Mohapatra and well-known litterateur of Santali language Padma Shri Damayanti Beshra joined the BJP.

Many leaders in BJD are feeling suffocated as the authoritarian rule of Naveen Patnaik has engulfed the organization.

Since then, the outflow has not stopped. To list a few, Debasis Nayak, once among the trusted aides of Naveen Babu, former OPCC secretary Prafulla Sunyani, four times MLA and former Odisha minister Pradeep Kumar Panigrahi along with other senior leaders, sitting MLA Arabinda Dhali and Jagannath Nundruka, a top tribal BJD leader. Ramesh Chandra Sai was the fifth legislator under CM Naveen Patnaik to do so.

They have complained of their past failed attempts to meet CM Naveen Patnaik, lamenting the obstacles posed by internal party dynamics.

Naveen Babu is still a respected, de facto leader in Odisha. However, the fact is, that BJD is the only family-controlled party, where Naveen Babu has not worked on a succession plan. None of his trusted lieutenants see a future in BJD. On the other side, while Congress is dying, under PM Modi’s leadership, BJP offers a positive long-term plan.

The popularity of PM Modi is growing in Odisha because of the NDA’s welfare schemes while the popularity of the ruling BJD is declining due to its long reign. There’s a clear anti-incumbency factor against the BJD because of several scams, irregularities, corruption at the official level and deprivation of eligible beneficiaries under various schemes.

Pushed to the brink in Odisha and intending to convey that the two erstwhile alliance partners BJP & BJD are still in a tactical understanding, Congress has been pushing for a narrative over the “BJD-BJP nexus,” making zero impact on the ground.

If we look at the numbers, from 2009 to 2024, BJD grew (37% to 44%) from 14 to 20 seats at the cost of Congress’s decline (from 33% vote to 26%) from 6 to zero seats. In 2019, riding on a clear Modi wave BJP grew (from 21.5% to 38.5%) from 1 to 8 seats again at the cost of Congress (from 26% to 13.5%), while BJD also lost a couple of percentage vote share.

All indications suggest that Odisha is heading for a saffron surge. Riding on the huge popularity of PM Modi and his welfare scheme deliveries, the BJP is expected to gain again at the cost of Congress and BJD both losing a few more percent votes.

If my reading is correct, BJP should get around 44–46% votes, followed by BJD with 38–40%. In such a bipolar election, 4–5% vote gap will be big enough to make a heavy dent.

With this organic growth of the BJP in the state, supported by a huge Modi-wave, BJP will have an impact in the Assembly elections too.

[BJP — 13, BJD — 8, Cong — 0]

26. PUDUCHERRY [1 Seat]

The lone seat of Puducherry has always witnessed a direct contest between Congress and All India N.R. Congress (AINRC). BJP is first time contesting this seat, in alliance with AINRC. Although some pollsters are indicating a BJP win, I have my doubts. INC’s V Vaithilingham should win this seat, unlike a huge margin in the last election.

[Cong — 1, BJP — 0]

27. PUNJAB [13 Seats]

Punjab is another state that is going through deep political churn and a shift of loyalty where the LS election results will not just decide the immediate future of the state but could also have far-reaching implications on the national political scene.

The best news for BJP this general election came from Punjab when BJP ended ambiguity about an alliance with Akalis. Corrupt to the core, the Sukhbir and Majithia family are the primary reason for the state of Punjab today! There is a huge sense of relief amongst ordinary Punjabis- the silent majority.

Shooting in the foot, Congress and AAP have agreed to share seats in Delhi, Gujarat, and Haryana but will fight against each other in Punjab.

Confident AAP decided to go solo after storming to power in Punjab with a landslide victory in the state polls, bagging 92 seats in the 117-member Assembly and trouncing the Congress that managed to win 18 seats. The rapid rise of AAP, led by Bhagwant Mann, in the 2022 elections was a clear indicator of the voters’ desire for change.

Given that background, AAP had a certain edge in a multi-cornered contest. However, in a very quick time the feeling of anti-incumbency and diminishing appeal of AAP’s prominent figures could lead to a reversal of fortunes of other political parties now have a crucial opportunity.

There’s a unique psychology of Punjabi voters that traditionally rally behind charismatic leaders, when the electorate overwhelmingly supported leaders like the late Parkash Singh Badal, followed by Capt. Amarinder Singh, and most recently, Bhagwant Mann. Currently, Punjab is witnessing a leadership vacuum.

With the arrest of AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal, Bhagwant Mann is also facing a leadership crisis, but not to the extent of a leaderless Congress, which is in complete disarray, after its Patiala MP Preneet Kaur, three-time MP Ravneet Singh Bittu, and former state finance minister Manpreet Singh Badal joining BJP adds to that unambiguous messaging. Sunil Jakhar provides wise leadership to BJP Punjab, which has primarily been an urban party in the state, the confidence to contest on all 13 seats.

The following seats are up for an interesting contest.

Ludhiana: Ludhiana has always witnessed a direct contest between the Congress and the SAD. However, in the last election, AAP came second pushing SAD to third place. In a big shock to Congress, the grandson of ex-CM of Punjab Beant Singh, and three-time Congress MP, Ravneet Singh Bittu has been fielded by BJP after he left Congress.

Amritsar: BJP has fielded highly respected retired diplomat Taranjit Singh Sandhu, a prominent Sikh face from the holy city who had served as Ambassador of India to the US. Curiously, Congress has still not named its candidate, despite Gurjeet Singh Aujla having defeated BJP’s Hardeep Singh Puri in 2019 and Rajinder Chinna in the 2017 by-poll. This time, AAP has announced Punjab Cabinet Minister Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal as its candidate.

Gurdaspur: The border constituency has seen a contest between the BJP and Congress in the past few general elections. BJP has replaced its sitting MP Sunny Deol with Thakur Dinesh Singh. Deol defeated then-Congress leader Sunil Jakhar, who now heads the BJP’s Punjab unit.

Hoshiyarpur: BJP has been winning this seat since 2014. However, none of the parties have declared their candidates so far. In a four-cornered fight, the BJP has a chance to retain this seat.

Jalandhar: BJP has fielded Sushil Kumar Rinku, who had won the Jalandhar By-poll in 2023 on the AAP ticket. No other party has fielded their candidate yet.

Bathinda: Another SAD stronghold which Harsimrat Kaur Badal has been winning since 2009. However, in a triangular contest, in which AAP secured 8% votes, the winning margin was reduced to 21 thousand only. An upset is expected on this seat.

Patiala: In a triangular contest, Preneet Kaur won this seat on the Congress ticket with a huge margin defeating AAP’s Dharam Vira Gandhi who held this seat in 2014. BJP has fielded her from Patiala after she moved to BJP along with her husband Capt. Amarinder Singh. She has a huge chance of retaining this seat.

[AAP — 5–6, BJP — 3–4, Cong — 3–4, SAD — 0–1]

28. RAJASTHAN [25 Seats]

In Rajasthan, which sends 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha, for the second time in a row, Congress could not win even a single seat. BJP won all 25 seats (BJP -24, ally RLP-1) again despite Congress winning the 2018 Assembly Elections just 4 months before the LS election securing a 0.5 % lead over BJP in terms of vote share.

I must remind the readers what we heard as popular slogans in 2018 — “Modi Tujhse Bair Nahin, Rani Teri Khair Nahin,” explaining the anti-incumbency was against the state government and not the Modi government.

Interestingly, it’s the last time ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) is in alliance with Congress (contesting 22 seats) this time along with CPI(M) and Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP), all contesting on one seat each.

In 2019, BJP improved its vote share to 59% from 55.6% in 2014. Rajasthan once again witnessing a huge Modi wave and is expected to better its vote share. With 60% plus votes, BJP is all set to repeat its 2014 tally of 25 seats.

[BJP — 25, Cong — 0]

29. UTTARAKHAND [5 Seats]

For the second time in a row, the BJP won all 5 seats of Uttarakhand, increasing its vote share from 55% to 61%. What is more important is that the vote difference ranged from 2 lakh 32 thousand to 3 lakh 40 thousand. There is no contest in Devbhumi.

[BJP — 5, Cong — 0]

30. TRIPURA [2 Seats]

Since 2018, when the BJP first shocked the political pandits by dethroning the CPI(M) ending their dominance over decades, BJP’s tactical alliance under leaders Hemanta Biswa and Biplab Deb has totally saffronized the state. BJP not only retained its government in the state but also won both the LS seats on its own. This time they are in alliance with another vibrant party from the State, the Tipra Motha Party (TMP).

Although the Congress Party is also in alliance with the Left, the NDA allies should easily win their respective seats.

[BJP 1, TMP -1,]

31. TELANGANA [17 Seats]

With the dominant Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) facing total collapse, and frantic crossovers across party lines, Telangana is set for a very closely contested State this election.

Congress Party won an impressive 39% vote share in the last Assembly election clinching a majority in the state, while the BRS declined from a 47% to 32% vote share. But the swing against the BRS appears to have gone both in favour of the BJP (in the Adivasi-dominated areas) and the Congress (in the Muslim-dominated regions).

With recent high-profile defections from the BRS to Congress and the BJP, BRS is up for a complete rout. While Mr. Srihari and K. Keshava Rao, who are widely viewed to be KCR’s trusted lieutenant, joined the Congress.

Moreover, in less than six months of CM Revanth Reddy’s rule, there’s already restlessness in the public’s perception of the Congress government. While most welfare measures promised by Congress, are yet to be implemented, some also due to the Model Code of Conduct, the public appears to be in a hurry.

Important to note that BJP is doubling its vote share election after election. This points to a three-pronged race emerging in Telangana.

Assaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, is still a key player, though without any formal alliance. It remains to be seen how its supporters vote in the seats that it is not contesting.

While BJP should retain the Adilabad, Karimnagar, Nizamabad, and Secunderabad constituencies. Congress should also be able to retain Nalgonda and Bhongir while adding Zahirabad and Chevella to its kitty. Despite an interesting fight posed by BJP’s enthusiastic candidate Madhavi Lata, AIMIM will retain its traditional Hyderabad constituency!

That leaves a triangular contest on 8 seats:

Mehboobnagar: Congress’s Ch Vamshichand Reddy is facing a very stiff challenge from the BJP’s DK Aruna, who is state vice-president and the woman face of the saffron party, spent long years in the Congress and knows the inner dynamics of the party very well. Besides, many of the present-day Congress MLAs and cadres from the southern Telangana region have been her proteges and that makes the Congress wary. The sitting BRS MP M Srinivas Reddy has not even been actively campaigning.

Medak: BJP candidate M Raghunandan Rao is articulate and has a good following in the region. But the saffron party has not secured many votes in the recent elections and reversing that trend will be a major challenge for him. P Venkataram Reddy of BRS is not considered a very strong candidate. Congress has picked a fresh face — Neelam Madhu — who is reportedly not well-known among the constituents. The fact that it has also not performed well in the last elections doesn’t augur well for the grand old party. This seat is difficult to predict.

Malkajgiri: Former Finance and Health Minister in the BRS, Eatala Rajender, is the BJP candidate from this seat, which is part of Greater Hyderabad, and the largest constituency in India with over 31 lakh voters. Both Rajender and the Congress candidate Sunitha Mahender Reddy are non-locals, the former has a greater profile and is known to most people in the constituency. Sunitha Reddy is the wife of former BRS minister Patnam Mahender Reddy.

PM Modi’s roadshow in Malkajgiri last month created momentum in Rajender’s favour. Though CM Revanth Reddy was elected as MP from Malkajgiri in 2019, has been burning the midnight oil over his erstwhile constituency, because all the 7 assembly seats under Malkajgiri Lok Sabha constituency were won by the BRS. BJP also secured a good vote share in the last elections here. A loss would be a loss of face and give ammunition to his detractors.

Khammam: Sitting BRS MP Nama Nageswara Rao is well-known in this segment. He also secured a good vote share in the last elections. The Congress, which performed well in the recent Assembly elections, winning six out of seven seats under this LS segment, is yet finalise its candidate. BJP’s T Vinod Rao has entered the electoral fray for the first time.

The remaining four seats of Pedapalli (SC, Nagarkurnool (SC), Warangal (SC), and Mehboobabad (ST), are reserved seats, with a lot of backward castes and adivasis, which gives BJP a lot of hope.

Warangal: Initially considered a Cong vs BRS contest, it has become a three-way fight with the BJP picking former MLA Aroori Ramesh, who was with the BRS. BRS initially announced Kadiyam Kavya as its candidate. But once she moved to Congress and been named their candidate, BRS is yet to announce its candidate.

Nagarkunool: The BJP has fielded sitting MP P Ramulu’s son Bharath. But the saffron party against Congress’s Mallu Ravi, a former MP. He is well-known and the party too enjoys good support in this segment. The BRS has allotted the ticket to former IPS officer RS Praveen Kumar, who does not enjoy much support from key BRS leaders.

Peddapalli: BRS candidate and former minister Koppula Eshwar is well-known in this segment after having served as an MLA six times. The party has done well here in the last few elections. Congress candidate G Vamshi is contesting for the first time. BJP’s Gomasa Srinivas, on the other hand, harbours hope of defeating his rivals with the support of the SC population.

Mahabubabad: It will be a battle between sitting BRS MP Maloth Kavitha and former MPs P Balaram Naik of the Congress. The BJP is not that strong in this segment, but hopes to woo Adivasi voters.

[BJP — 8, Cong — 7, BRS — 1, AIMIM — 1]

32. SIKKIM [1 Seat]

Although BJP and Congress, both have fielded their candidates, the lone seat of Sikkim will be a contest between Sikkim Karantikari Morcha (SKM) and Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF). The SKM which is also part of the NDA, should easily retain this seat.

[SKM — 1]

With 334 seats already covered, and NDA almost reaching the halfway mark, the writing is on the wall.

In the last segment, we’ll discuss the fate of four large and most intriguing states — Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal — covering 209 seats. Keep tracking the space.