The 2024 General Election in India is once again a wave election fuelled by a perfect mix of positivity and aspiration and a powerful, over-the-board cultural and civilizational assertion. This election is out and out a referendum on Prime Minister Modi.

It is unprecedented that despite being 10 years in power at the centre, PM Modi’s grip on his supporters is not only unchallenged. Even PM Nehru, who had all the voices dancing to his tunes, faced fading popularity after being 10 years in power. It is the charisma of his incorruptible personality and unwavering credibility that the support for Prime Minister Modi is still at the level of frenzy. The number of people who attend his gargantuan public rallies is phenomenal.

PM Modi has managed to convince his supporters that he stands by them and it has galvanized the poor across caste lines to overcome their insecurity. Every household has received some or the other direct benefit — (House, Gas, Electricity, Bank Account, Ayushman card, Toilets, etc.) in terms of basic necessities of everyday life that shockingly didn’t happen in the last 70 years.

His position on nationalism, anti-corruption, and no-nonsense approach to civilizational issues like Ram Mandir, is culminating in yet another tsunami of support. Such a tsunami not only wins the election, but impacts also unexpected territories.

PM Modi set the tone of this election while addressing the Lok Sabha on the Motion of Thanks on President’s Address. He said: “I can gauge the mood of the nation; it will definitely give NDA more than 400 seats and the BJP at least 370 seats.” The entire agenda of electoral engineering, thus, changed. From “Will Modi-led BJP form Govt for 3rd term”, the narrative shifts to the enormity of the win to “Abki baar 400 paar”!

As a fallout, big and small regional parties sitting on fence started withering and galvanizing towards the BJP. In less than 2 months we witnessed countless leaders, sitting MPs and MLAs, including the Congress Party’s leaders from different states start jumping ship and joining BJP. But it's not only about leaders and parties joining and aligning with each other. It is a natural phenomenon in such a huge democracy like ours and it happens every election. What differentiates the NDA from the INDI Alliance, and other alliances, is the finesse, magnanimity and discipline. While the other side is filled with confusion, chaos, and deceit.

With that note of basic understanding of the mood of the nation, and also the assumption of unprecedented pro-incumbency in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, I begin to predict the electoral outcome of this “Democracy Ka Mahakumbh.”

1. ANDAMAN NICOBAR: [1]

2019: INC — 46%, BJP — 45.3%; 2014: BJP 47.8%, INC 44.8%

Since 1998, the contest between BJP and Congress for this sole Parliamentary constituency of the islands has been fierce and close. In 2019, Bishnu Pada Ray of BJP, who has served this constituency as MP for three terms in the 13th, 15th, and 16th Lok Sabha, did not contest the election for the first time because of his illness. Vishal Jolly, who contested for the first time on a BJP ticket, gave a close fight to Congress veteran Kuldeep Rai Sharma, losing with a margin of meagre 1400 votes.

By declaring Vishnu Pada Ray as its candidate once again, the BJP has played a very significant trump card. The candidate from Congress is the incumbent Kuldeep Rai Sharma. In a surprise move, CPI (M), which is a part of the INDI Block has also fielded its candidate D Ayappam, which would only harm Congress’s prospects, if there’s any.

With the pro-incumbency palpating in favour of PM Modi and the BJP, it should easily get back its traditional seat.

[BJP — 1, Cong -0]

2. ANDHRA PRADESH [25 Seats]

In Andhra, things are getting clearer as the election is coming closer. Last time, national parties Congress as well as BJP were not in the fray. This time Congress is relying on its newly appointed president YS Sharmila, sister of Jagan Reddy. When there was a clear Jagan wave in 2019, YRCP secured 22 MP seats and with high anti-incumbency now, the party is finding it hard to get candidates to contest. The anti-incumbency is more acute in urban areas like Visakhapatnam, Vijayawada, Guntur, Nellore, and Ongole.

Arresting N Chandrababu Naidu while he was on a state-wide campaign, was the first bad move Jagan took. It boomeranged and gave the first spark to TDP. That tour was gaining much traction for NCBN. His “illegal arrest,” as campaigned by his party, also helped further in gaining sympathy for NCBN, claiming the state is run by an “unnerved” CM Jagan.

Then eyeing the much talked about “Abki Baar 400 Paar” campaign, the BJP announced its alliance with its traditional partners, the TDP and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena. The NDA seat sharing has been announced — BJP to contest on 6 seats, TDP on 17 and Jana Sena to contest on 2 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. In the assembly elections, the BJP will vie for 10 seats, the TDP for 144 seats, and the JSP for 21 seats.

Before the NDA alliance, the predicted vote share distribution from different pollsters was averaging around — YSRCP — 47%, TDP — 38%, Jana Sena — 6%, INC — 2%, and BJP — 2%. However, the dynamics have changed since the BJP-TDP-Jana Sena alliance, and the scenario in Andhra is changing rapidly and concerns are growing for Jagan.

Though the BJP is still finding its lost ground, it always had its cadre present in Andhra. Even in 1984, when BJP won only two seats across India, one seat was from Andhra. Even recently it has always fared well when in alliance with TDP. In 2014, when BJP allied with TDP, Jana Sena being an external supporter, they won 17 out of 25 seats that fell now in Andhra. The upcoming polls will witness the three parties contesting together for the first time, marking a departure from the 2019 scenario when BJP maintained equal distance from both TDP and YSRCP.

Seeing the shift in the tide, 6 sitting MPs and many MLAs have left the YSRCP. The real shock to Jagan came from sitting Machlipattanam MP V. Balasowry, who left the party and would be contesting from for Jana Sena.

Congress is literally not in the fray in Andhra. Jagan is also being accused of trying to pocket congress cadre, through his sister, YS Sharmila.

Despite anti-incumbency, Jagan Reddy is not yielding, and his canvassing has been top-notch. Jagan is visiting every district for his election campaign undertaking the “MemanthaSiddham” (We are all, ready) bus yatra to infuse excitement into his party workers.

TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu is vociferously busy with the campaign. However, the instances of CBN giving statements against the BJP that it is the BJP, that wanted alliance with them and not the other way around, has the potential to cause confusion in the cadre.

The poll campaign temperatures spiked in Andhra Pradesh since PM Modi came to AP to launch his election campaign and delivered a charismatic speech at the joint rally of the three alliance parties and enthused the cadre.

The contest on the following seats would be interesting to watch where BJP can surprise the pollsters:

Rajampet: BJP has fielded ex-Congress stalwart Kiran Kumar Reddy who served Andhra as Chief Minister from 2010 to Feb 2014. He resigned from the post of CM and Congress after the Telangana bill was passed in Lok Sabha. He was also the last chief minister for Andhra Pradesh from INC. He joined the BJP in April 2023. Reddy is credited with launching several welfare schemes.

Araku: (Lone ST Constituency of Andhra): BJP has fielded a former Deputy Collector Kothapalli Geetha, who had won this seat from YSRCP securing more than 4 lakh votes with nearly 1 lakh margin. YSRCP didn’t give her a ticket in 2019.

Rajahmundry: The daughter of NTR and the state BJP President Daggubati Purandeswari is contesting this seat. For her fierce, erudite, and impassioned speeches, she has earned the reputation of ‘Sushma Swaraj of the South.’ She joined BJP in 2014 after resigning from Congress, as a mark of protest against the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh.

Narasapuram: BJP has fielded Srinivas Varma. For obvious reasons, the sitting MP from YSRCP — Raghu Rama Krishna Raju is not given a ticket by YSRCP. Mr. Raju has been the outspoken critic of his party and its chief Jagan Reddy. Mr. Raju, who in October 2020 wrote to PM Modi alleging that Jaganmohan Reddy was promoting evangelism in Andhra Pradesh, is openly supporting the BJP against YSRCP. This would be an interesting seat to watch.

Although I do not fully trust opinion polls, but it is interesting to see how even the pollsters have course-corrected their numbers, post-NDA alliance.

The trend is clear. Jagan’s popularity graph is falling, the NDA alliance is strengthening.

Here are recent historical vote share data and a conservative prediction for 2024.

If this trend continues, Jagan is in deep trouble and may lose the assembly election as well.

3. ARUNACHAL PRADESH [2]

In 2014, although BJP secured 5% more vote share than Congress, it won one seat in Arunachal for the very first time. [BJP 47%. INC: 42%]

However, from the 2019 General Election [BJP 58%; INC 21%], this North-eastern State has been completely saffronised. It is an impossible task for Congress to catch up the gap of 37% votes. BJP is certain to retain both the seats. [ BJP 2, Cong — 0]

4. ASSAM

In Assam, BJP won 9 out of 10 seats contested in 2019. The alliance partners could not hold their seats allowing Congress to bag 3, AIUDF 1 and 1 for independent candidate. This time BJP is contesting on 11 seats. The remaining seats are distributed among its allies — 2 to AGP and 1 for the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL).

It would have been ideal for Congress to have an alliance with AIUDF to keep the Muslim vote intact. Although Muslims would tactically vote against the BJP. However, the marginal gain in vote share would have been instrumental for Congress in retaining both Barpeta and Kaliabor. But that alliance so far is unlikely, and Congress might draw a blank.

BJP has dropped 5 out of 9 sitting MPs. But yet should easily retain them all.

The same is true with the Dhubri seat, which should be a smooth sail for AIUDF Chief Badruddin Ajmal. If there is any contest, it is only at Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Kaziranga, and Nowgong.

Kokrajhar is the lone seat UPPL is contesting from NDA. Even during Modi’s tsunami in 2019, UPPL lost this seat to an independent candidate, securing more than 3 lakh votes. This time it is in alliance with the BJP, which gives them more than a fair chance to win this seat.

Barpeta:  Congress’s Abdul Khaleque snatched this seat in 2019 from AIUDF, who won this seat in 2014. This seat has come in AGP’s kitty who trailed this seat at second position in 2019 by more than 1.4 lakh votes. This seat is 50:50 depending on how the Muslim vote is distributed among Congress and AIUDF.

Kaziranga: This is a new constituency. Earlier it fell under Kaliabor, which was a safe seat of Tarun Gogoi, who has been retaining this seat since 2014. In 2019 he won it by over 2 lakh margin against AGP (NDA). And this time BJP is contesting this seat instead of AGP. It is interesting to know that Tarun Gogoi is not contesting this seat and is contesting only Jorhat which he lost in 2019. This seems to be a free pass to BJP’s dynamic RS MP Kamakhya Prasad Tasa.

Nowgong: This is a traditional seat of BJP which it retained for four consecutive terms, from 1999 to 2014. However, it lost it in 2019 by a meagre margin of 15K votes. The losing Rupak Sarmah is one of the dropped candidates from the BJP and was replaced by Suresh Bora. In all probability, BJP should get this seat back from Congress in 2024.

This is how pollsters have predicted the outcome so far.

Here are recent historical vote share data and the conservative prediction for 2024.

5. BIHAR

Here we decode the fast pace political rumblings in Bihar during the hot election season. The battle for Bihar’s 4 LS Seats is expected to be one of the most engrossing contests. Led by the BJP, the NDA swept the state the last time winning 39 of the 40 seats in the 2019 LS Polls with a massive 53% vote share. This time the NDA is eyeing all 40 seats.

The biggest jolt to the INDI Alliance came from Nitish Kumar, the man who helped it take shape in the first place, but who failed to adequately recognise his efforts. It is well known that switching sides has become part of Nitish’s politics. It wasn’t well regarded in the media.

After Nitish Kumar came back to the NDA fold, the biggest challenge for NDA in Bihar was the agreement on seat sharing, which ended smoothly.

BJP contesting only 17 seats like last time is a result of a bad negotiation. For his Paltu Ram (turncoat) image, JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar is witnessing a clear erosion of support. Despite his diminishing political stature, JDU got 16 seats — more than it deserved. However, despite a diminished stature, Nitish joining the NDA fold not only strengthens the alliance, but more importantly, it dwindles the opposition’s chances completely.

Chirag Paswan, when he was put to extreme test, maintained composure, had control over his speeches, made no loose comments, and was rightly rewarded by the BJP top brass. He has managed his 5 seats including Hajipur. Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLP are given one seat each.

As a fallout Union Minister Pashupati Paras first resigned from his post after his party was denied any tickets by the NDA. Then there were reports of Mr. Paras joining the opposition camp. But fearing a probable split in his own party, he announced on X, complete support of his Party to NDA.

In the end, the easiness with which the seat-sharing has been done and the sacrifices every party has made to strengthen the NDA is commendable.

In the INDI Block, Left has joined hands with RJD and Congress. However, there’s still conflict despite announcing seat sharing — RJD to 26 seats, Congress on 9, and Left Parties on 5 seats. Congress is yet to announce candidates for seats allotted to it. But it announced new inductee Pappu Yadav’s candidature from Purnia, a seat that was not even allotted to them. Three days later, Lalu Yadav gave RJD ticket to one Bima Bharti from Purnia. Such is their coordination.

Caste Arithmetic:

Like it or not, caste lives in Bihar, and it continues to underpin electoral behaviour, except for ‘wave’ elections as in 1977, 1984, 2014, and 2019. Nothing can explain it better than the NDA’s extraordinary failure in the 2015 assembly election just a year after its landslide victory in 2014. Let’s touch upon the arithmetic of caste demography and the strength of each alliance first.

The I.N.D.I. Alliance: The sheer logic of numbers and caste loyalties was evident when even down and out in 2014, Lalu Yadav still commanded 30% of the vote share for the UPA and made Nitish opt for a Grand Alliance in 2015.

Despite being convicted for scamming Biharis, Lalu Yadav’s “MY” (17% Muslim + 14% Yadav) combination — which translates to 30% votes is almost solid. However, a good chunk of the Yadav voters has drifted towards the BJP since 2014 weakening the prospects of already shrinking Lalu and thus the I.N.D.I. alliance in Bihar. Muslims are primarily concentrated in 10 constituencies and vote solidly against the BJP-led NDA, except for the Pasmanda Muslims who support Nitish Kumar.

The NDA: The BJP has a robust and loyal support base among the upper castes (17%), Banias (7%), and non-Yadav OBCs and urban voters, while the JD(U) has successfully cultivated an alliance of the extremely backward castes (EBC) and the Kurmis (4%).

Chirag’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) brings a big chunk of loyal small sub-castes from OBCs and Dalits (6%) under NDA’s umbrella. The Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLP) will further strengthen NDA’s chance to keep a big chunk of the Mahadalits (10%) and OBC (Koeries 5%) votes in its kitty.

Hence, the NDA’s tactical alliance has crafted a highly successful social axis and virtually reduced the support base of the I.N.D.I. alliance. RJD, Congress, and Left together would consolidate the Muslim-Yadav combination. But the Congress and the Left bring nothing more to the coalition except old loyalty that pins hope on a section of upper caste and Mahadalits.

However, the EBC (Extremely Backward Caste — 21%) votes has always been crucial in any election in Bihar. At the same time, it is interesting to note that even at the height of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement, many Dalits, Mahadalits, and EBCs never voted for BJP anywhere in the heartland as they backed Narendra Modi in 2014 and 2019. This is partly due to direct benefits and deliveries, and partly because of Modi’s underrated ‘backward-class’ credentials.

It is important to note that the Nitish Kumar government had also constituted separate commissions to improve a lot of these left-out castes not enjoying the benefits of reservation. The inclusion of EBCs (Nishad, Mallah, and Nonia) in the SC/ST category is another reason for Nitish Kumar to additionally galvanise this section for NDA.

For the opposition, Lalu Yadav and his son Tejaswi are only leaders who can pull crowds. In my understanding, the vote share of the INDI alliance would increase from 2019. But will that be enough to hurt the NDA and convert into seats, is questionable. In 2019 the NDA alliance secured more than 53% vote share, winning 39 out of 40 seats. The 28 of its 39 seats by more than 1.5 Lakh vote margin. Another 9 seats they won by a margin ranging between 50 thousand to 150 thousand, and only two seats it won with a thin margin, by 39K against Misa Bharti in Patliputra and by 1700 votes in Jehanabad. That is the might of this alliance.

Recent Vote and Seat sharing data:

Ignore the projected numbers here by pollsters for their accuracy, just focus on the impact when JD(U) shifts from I.N.D.I. to NDA.

Conclusion: The ground assessment of Bihar clearly indicates that the Modi wave in Bihar is at its peak and spans across the state.

Once again, the arithmetic is also strongly in favour of the NDA alliance. Lalu’s RJD has no space to manoeuver against such arithmetic. The only hope RJD has in Bihar this election is the waning popularity of Nitish and Muslim votes consolidation. Whatever chances the INDI alliance has, it’s in the Seemanchal with a high Muslim population. This too gets impacted by AIMIM’s presence which has again decided to contest 11 seats where Muslims have a sizeable population. The best-case scenario for the INDI alliance in Bihar is retaining Kishanganj and hoping for a triumph in Katihar and Jehanabad.

However, a repeat of 2019 cannot be ruled out.

6. CHANDIGARH: [ 1 Seat ]

Located in the foothills of the Shivalik hill ranges, Chandigarh has just one Lok Sabha constituency that covers the entire Union Territory. In 2019 actor-politician Kirron Kher won this seat for BJP securing 51% votes. This seat is going for polls on 1st June and till now none of the Parties have announced their candidate.

There is no contest on this seat. Even if Congress and AAP put up a joint candidate, it would be difficult to come close to BJP’s vote share. BJP is winning this seat comfortably with more than 50% vote share.

[BJP — 1]

7. CHHATTISGARH [ 11 SEATS]

The forthcoming polls in Chhattisgarh would be a repeat of previous two election. In 2014 BJP had won 10 of the 11 LS seats. Before the 2019 LS elections, Congress swept to power in the state and left the BJP scrambling for existence, a state it dominated for 15 years. Despite that, BJP won 9 out of 11 seats, riding on Modi tsunami.

Here’s a different opinion poll suggesting a trend:

BJP is banking on the policies of the central government and the Modi factor. The BJP is flashing its trump card of national security and its success in reducing the enduring conflict with the Maoists. The BJP is very strong in the urban areas of Raipur, Durg-Bhilai, Raigarh, and Bilaspur. The two seats it lost last time — Bastar and Korba, Bastar is a traditional BJP seat. Korba switches sides every other election.

Ultimately the OBCs who constitute about 54% of the state’s population who had backed the BJP in the past and voted decisively for PM Modi in 2014 and 2019, are backing its OBC leader once again.

This time Congress has just been ousted from the State assembly. Facing severe corruption charges in the state, the Congress Party would struggle to open an account in the state.

[BJP -11, Cong — 0]

8. DADAR NAGAR HAVELI & DAMAN AND DIU [ 2 SEATS]

The Dadar Nagar Haveli is a traditional seat of the BJP. However, veteran Congress leader, the late Mohanbhai Shanjibhia Delkar, won this seat for the first time in 2019 as an independent, and coming out of a discredited Congress on the island.

After the unfortunate demise of Mohanbhai, his wife Kalaben Delkar won the by-poll with a huge margin on the Shiv Sena ticket, against BJP. This time she is contesting the seat on the BJP ticket, and should easily win the seat for NDA.

Daman & Diu is another traditional BJP seat that Shri Lalubhai Patel has retained for the last 4 terms.

[BJP — 2, Cong — 0]

9. DELHI [7 SEATS]

Despite supporting Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP in the assembly, voters in Delhi voted decisively for PM Modi and the ruling BJP at the Centre and giving it all seven seats since 2014. In 2019, the BJP won every seat with more than a 20% margin, with a mammoth overall vote share of 57%.

In a very dramatic development, Arvind Kejriwal has been arrested by the ED on corruption charges in the Delhi LiquorGate. While the AAP is trying to cash some sympathy for its supremo, it is not sticking because of the scathing remarks by the Court and denial of his arrest. While it has sent a wrong message in the leaderless cadre, their everyday drama, and more importantly, Kejriwal’s defiance in quitting his CM chair, is making things much more embarrassing for the AAP. Surprisingly, since Congress has not distanced itself from AAP’s shenanigans, this embarrassment is engulfing them as well.

Delhi BJP has declared all its 7 candidates, dropping 5 sitting MPs on grounds of performance.

This time Congress and AAP are in alliance, but Congress is yet to announce its candidates from the 3 seats it has in its kitty. The alliance despite increasing its vote share arithmetically, would not make much difference as BJP is once again projected to get around 55% plus votes in the general elections.

[BJP — 7; Cong — 0, AAP — 0]

10. GOA [ 2 SEATS]

Goa is a tricky state. Last election while BJP won the North Goa seat by a margin of 20%, it lost the South Goa seat to Congress by a thin margin of 2.5%.

It is important to note that in a triangular fight, AAP also secured 3% votes, which increased to 7% during the 2022 assembly election. This election being in the INDI alliance, AAP has left both seats for Congress to contest. But seeing the way both Congress and AAP are losing perception across India, and a clear surge in Modi’s popularity, the contest won’t be as fierce in South Goa as was expected a few months back. BJP should be able to win both seats.

[BJP — 2, INC — 0]

With these 10 States and Union Territories consisting of 105 seats, I’ll close this part of the poll prediction.

The Key Takeaways:

• NDA alliance to win 92 out of 105 seats. Strike Rate — 88%.
• BJP to win 57 out of 60 seats it is contesting. Strike Rate — 95%.
• Congress to win 2 seats of INDI Alliances total 3.

In the coming parts, we will analyse where BJP and NDA are heading and if they can sustain such a strike rate. Can Congress manage to cross even 30 seats? What’s in for other regional satraps?

For Congress and the INDI alliance, the key states left are Punjab, Kerala, TN, Karnataka, and possibly Maharashtra. For BJP high hit rate states are Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, MP and UP.

The real fun would be to gaze at what’s happening in Orissa, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Watch this space!

 

(To be Contd..)